Australian Political Futures: Tail Winds for Change in 2028?

Delivering the Bernie Fraser Oration just a few days before the brutal attacks on Dr. Helen Haines in Wangaratta, Treasurer Chalmers preempted the need for greater tolerance in our national political discussions. The social tensions from vacuous adversarial rhetoric in political debate also extends to frustrations in disadvantaged regional and outer metro electorates about the slow delivery of real solutions to cost of living increases and alienation from real participation in political processes.

Pockets of Labor Heartland were revived in the Western NSW Electorate of Parkes in 2025 on a 5 per cent swing to Labor’s Nathan Fell after preferences. The overall result was strongly in favour of the Nationals with strong support from the far-right preferences flows from One Nation, the other far-right minor parties, and the disciplined harvesting of Postal Votes.

Cheers to the voters of Broken Hill, Menindee, Lightning Ridge, Walgett and Boggabilla for their resistance to the National Party campaign efforts to install Peter Dutton as PM.

Copying the far-right rhetoric from the LNP and One Nation is the Road to Opposition for one of the world’s few majority Labor governments here in Australia. Voters in many other Middle Power electorates overseas have opted for fractured far-right governments where centre-left parties are in full retreat as in Italy today and Spain after the forthcoming elections on 29 November 2026.

I have always claimed in my articles for The AIM Network that the sources of our overseas investment need to be diversified. The Treasury Departments in Canberra have the resources and the motivation to check on such possibilities. The Oration from Treasurer Chambers fits into these possibilities which could give Labor that Tail Wind for a third term in government.

The Oration from Treasurer Chalmers to the Australia Institute offered a good longer-term economic and social forecast. It commences by acknowledging the depth of dismay in Australian society over the slow pace of reform on both economic and cultural fronts. Beyond this pain are the Albanese Government’s record of attempted economic reforms and the prospects for more such possibilities in a quest for that Tail Wind Momentum for a third term in government.

The criticisms from Treasurer Chalmers against adversarial politics were of course directed at the LNP and One Nation for attempting to derail these changes in policy direction.

The Treasurer’s Own Commitment to New Policy Directions from the Oration

The far‑right strategy is to divide people and it’s working. Their goal is to talk down our economy so that that their endless negativity becomes a self‑fulfilling prophecy.

Their core message is often clear and sometimes very appealing: let’s just go back to a more nostalgic version of the world we remember.

We have all the facts to push back on this, but facts don’t beat feelings. Feelings are as real as facts.

The past will always feel safe and familiar and desirable because by definition we understand it better than we understand the future. That’s normal. That’s human.

When a significant swathe of our fellow Australians finds that message of returning to an idealised version of the good old days appealing – we shouldn’t turn on them.

Our role as progressives is not to scold those who see appeal in that message. It’s not to mock them or ‘cancel’ them or talk down to them.

The Treasure’s Commitment to New Social Democratic Policy Directions

For the Labor team, political debate might centre around more inclusive policy directions for Australia as a Middle Power Downunder with a vibrant First Nations Culture.

Years of LNP governments in the post-1996 era have reversed earlier social democratic Tail Winds for change. Treasurer Chambers has now spoken up in support of more proactive social democratic change agendas.

Australia is now deeply embedded in Scenario 1 of those priorities for 2051. I introduced these Scenarios in an article for The AIMN in 2017:

• Scenario 1: The Triumph of Shared Strategic Might: Closer strategic/economic entanglement with the US Global Alliance.
• Scenario 2: Living Co-Operatively with Asian and Pacific States with more economic and cultural ties to China, India, Japan, and Indonesia.
• Scenario 3: Reaching for Aquarius Substantial structural and cultural shifts driven by grassroots political awakening in the US to replace reduced economic leadership and ineffective cultural agendas

Waiting for the Tail Wind to Assist with a Third Term for Labor in 2028

Treasurer Chalmers still hopes for better tail winds to victory in 2028 as current economic policies become better understood and appreciated.

Ironically, there is an opposition to a change of direction from the voters in Australia’s most disadvantaged regional and outer metro electorates.

This resistance is reinforced by the cultural diversions offered by the popular household entertainment streaming services provided by Netflix, Amazon, Disney, Stan, Apple TV, Paramount and Binge. The entertainment menus often have a very Anglo-American flavour as shown by one of the latest promotions from Netflix to potential subscribers (Popular and Trending):

Importing overseas diversionary entertainment has done nothing to address current domestic tensions and the ever-present cost of living challenges as monitored by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW):

The Albanese Government has acted on these health dilemmas with accessible bulk-billed clinics and associated mental health services.

Through the Therapeutic Goods and Other Legislation Amendment (Vaping Reforms) Act 2024, the Albanese government transitioned vaping from an unregulated, booming consumer-retail market into a strictly policed therapeutic commodity.

Such health initiatives have also been supported by structural realigning of Commonwealth cultural investment. Anchored by Revive, a five-year, $286 million National Cultural Policy launched in January 2023, the administration has moved to reverse prior funding contractions across public broadcasting, screen production, live music, and the broader creative arts sector. By embedding systemic legislative reforms, long-term operational guarantees, and dedicated bodies like Creative Australia, Music Australia, and Writing Australia, the government’s policy framework approaches creative sectors as both essential economic drivers and vital pillars of national identity.

The trendlines in a more innovative style of cultural investment are encouraging and might contribute more to new export levels of adjacent Pacific and Asian states to provide a better understanding of our national identity at home and abroad:

“The culture wars from Government are over. Labor is delivering a new chapter in Australia’s cultural story – backed by record funding.” (Tony Burke, Minister for the Arts)

Support for our own cultural story and its First Nations Background is reflected in secure funding for public broadcasting, national arts policies, screen productions and Music Council allocations which are all buried in the budget papers.

The Albanese Government has also moved against inherited tax loopholes from a decade of LNP governments which contribute to federal government deficit levels. Treasurer Chalmers inherited an estimated deficit estimate of $32 billion for 2021-22. This was followed by to surplus budgets and a current deficit of $22 billion to cover new social programmes and housing initiatives.

The Guardian (1 October 2026) has strived to keep everyone informed about the taxation irregularities from some of our largest multinational corporate investment funds.

Thanks to Jim Chalmers, the worst excesses of negative gearing on investment in existing housing are now gone despite fierce opposition from news reporting and editorials from News Corp outlets.

Other taxation rorts are uncovered in this ATO publication which is available online. The ATO Tax Gap Estimates inherited by the Albanese Government in 2022-23 amounted to $58.2 billion or 9.1 percent of anticipated revenue.

A recent Treasury media release also covered the challenges of tax avoidance through discretionary trusts (14 October 2026):

The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 3) Bill 2026 and Income Tax Rates Amendment (Minimum Tax on Discretionary Trusts) Bill 2026 cover the following measures:

• Implementing the core components of the minimum tax on discretionary trusts, including a new definition of fixed trusts

• Expanded options to limit or eliminate restructuring costs for small businesses and others using discretionary trusts

• Implementing the next tranche of legislation for the Government’s reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT)

• Providing transitional relief for excess contributions in the first year of Payday Super

The olive branch from Dr Chalmers to One Nation’s growing support base is a masterful initiative for application in a future marginal seats campaign.

With the announcement of retirement for the LNP Member for Capricornia in 2028, both Matt Canavan and James Ashby might find themselves competing to become MPs in Capricornia (Image: Wikipedia):

Preferences from far-right parties have continued to move Capricornia away from its former Labor affiliations after the landslide result for the LNP in 2019.

Primary votes from the far-right parties extended to Trumpet of Patriots (6.1 percent), One Nation (15.6 percent) and Family First (3.7 percent). This combined far-right support for the LNP in preference allocations exceeded 30 percent at several polling booths on the Capricorn Coast, within Rockhampton and in regional locations.

Treasurer Chalmers has offered a consensus-building momentum towards a more social democratic society. This video of the Oration illustrates the nuanced delivery style of Treasurer Chalmers as a concluding postscript to this interpretation to promote more discussion on Political Futures in tough times when vested interests want to contain social democratic initiatives against disadvantage.

However, the components of the rhetorical tail wind promised by Treasure Chalmers have yet to be defined. Middle Powers globally are still waiting for the outcomes of crucial elections in the US and Israel to make assessment of future tail wind forecasts in the post-2028 era.

Diversifying the Investment Multiplier

In speaking to an elite audience at the Australia Institute, Treasurer Chalmers was coy about covering a more diverse investment multiplier as a change strategy. Too many of our investment dollars are in the hands of British, US and European corporations. This is reflected in the latest ABS data on both inward and outward investment:

“These ABS figures are a sobering reminder that we are missing out on an important opportunity to attract Chinese investment into Australia. Today, the PRC’s share of all foreign direct investment in Australia has fallen to just 2.8 percent. This is a missed opportunity.” (Professor James Laurenceson UTS, Sydney).

No real change in policy parameters is needed to diversify the investment multipliers towards more relevance on Asian investment from within our immediate region. The change from the hegemony of US, British and European investment towards a more diversified investment base will of course be resisted in confidential advice to the National Security Committee (NSC) to Inner Cabinet. These deliberations are not released to the media but should be scrutinized in depth to promote public discussion on alternatives available in contemporary economic diplomacy.

The Treasurer’s Dilemma

Are Australians hitching our entire wagon to one side of the Indo-Pacific capital tide.

The US Trade Representative at the White House might be taking Aussies for a ride,

US owned AI data centres rise like silos in the dust,

A new phase of high capitalism is the LNP future which the electors might have to trust.

With his doctorate in Economics, Treasurer Chalmers has immediate understanding of every potential rort in Trump era economic diplomacy to embed strategic policies into economic priorities and cultural diversions which the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) needs to monitor as an avalanche of data centres engulfs Downunder Society to transform our society in more aggressively neoliberal lines.

Time for More Resistant Australian Cultural Diversions Again for Viewers at Home and Overseas Exports

Screen Australia Funded: The Delinquents Set in the Hinkler Electorate in the 1960s

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building on the critical issues raised in each article.

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