Politics has a habit of changing slowly… until it doesn’t

Only a few months ago the Liberal Party was talking about renewal. A new leader. A fresh start. A chance to reconnect with voters after a devastating election defeat.

Instead, the latest polling suggests the electorate has looked at the new product on offer and quietly wandered off to another aisle.

Angus Taylor’s approval rating has taken a sharp dive, and that’s not the sort of statistic any opposition leader wants hanging around their neck. Opposition leaders don’t have the luxury of simply waiting for governments to become unpopular. They have to persuade voters that they represent a credible alternative.

At the moment, that argument doesn’t appear to be getting much traction.

Of course, approval ratings are only one piece of the puzzle. Governments rarely lose office because opposition leaders are popular; they lose because voters decide they’ve had enough. But an unpopular opposition leader makes it much harder to capitalise when governments stumble.

Then there’s One Nation.

For months, polling suggested Pauline Hanson’s party was enjoying a remarkable surge. It was one of the political stories of the year, raising questions about where disaffected conservative voters were heading after the Coalition’s election defeat.

Now, however, that rise appears to have levelled out.

A “plateau” isn’t a collapse. It simply means the rapid growth has stopped.

That raises an interesting question.

Has One Nation reached its natural ceiling, attracting almost everyone inclined to support it? Or are those voters simply pausing before deciding whether to move again?

Either possibility presents problems for the Coalition.

If One Nation has settled into a solid base of support, every election becomes more difficult for the Liberals and Nationals. Conservative votes become permanently divided, making it increasingly difficult to win seats under our preferential voting system.

If, on the other hand, those voters are still restless, there is no guarantee they’ll return to the Coalition. Political loyalty is no longer what it once was. Voters who leave a major party often discover they rather like shopping around.

The Coalition therefore finds itself squeezed from two directions.

On one side is a Labor government that still enjoys the advantages of incumbency. On the other is a collection of conservative minor parties competing for many of the same voters.

That’s not an enviable position.

What makes the situation more challenging is that Australians are yet to hear a compelling vision from the Opposition. Holding press conferences is not a strategy. Criticising the government is expected. Voters also want to know what an opposition stands for, not merely what it stands against.

That has been the missing ingredient.

The old political formula was straightforward: oppose the government relentlessly and wait for public opinion to turn.

Today’s voters appear less patient. They expect policies, ideas and, above all, competence.

Without those ingredients, approval ratings can sink quickly. And once they do, recovering them is considerably harder than losing them in the first place.

Politics can be unforgiving.

The electorate generally gives new leaders a honeymoon period. If those early months fail to generate enthusiasm, the questions soon become uncomfortable.

Is this leader cutting through?

Is the party united?

Is there a genuine alternative government waiting in the wings?

The latest polling suggests many Australians are answering those questions with increasing scepticism.

For Angus Taylor, that’s a worrying trend.

For One Nation, a plateau may be preferable to a decline, but it also reminds us that political momentum rarely lasts forever.

And for Labor?

The lesson is simple.

Oppositions don’t automatically become governments.

They have to convince voters they deserve the job.