Predicting the outcome of a federal election involves numerous variables, public sentiment and, it goes without saying, campaign effectiveness. There can only be one winner, and here’s why each major party has that chance.
LNP
Based on the current information available, here are several reasons why some might argue the Coalition could win the 2025 federal election:
Economic Performance
Recent polls have shown that the Coalition has strengthened its two-party preferred lead, with a 53% to 47% split against Labor, suggesting an economic narrative that might favour them. The Roy Morgan survey from late December 2024 to early January 2025 indicates a public perception that the country’s economic direction might be improving under the Coalition’s influence on voter sentiment, particularly if economic conditions improve further before the election.
Shift in Voter Preferences
There has been a notable shift in Green preferences towards the Coalition since the last election, which could play a significant role in seat distribution. This shift in voter preference might give the Coalition an edge in marginal seats where Green votes could be decisive.
Leadership and Campaigning
Peter Dutton’s leadership performance has seen a boost in approval ratings, which might sway undecided voters. His performance could be key in framing the Coalition’s campaign narrative, focusing on areas where they believe they have an advantage, namely economic management and security.
Policy Appeal
If the Coalition has managed to craft policies that resonate with the electorate’s current priorities, such as cost of living, housing, or national security, they could gain traction. For instance, any perceived improvement in these areas could bolster their support base.
Discontent with Labor
Despite Labor’s efforts in stabilising government debt and managing economic recovery, persistent issues such as high inflation (a double-edged sword – see below when I discuss Labor’s chances), housing affordability, and the public’s perception of government performance might lead voters to look for alternatives. If these issues remain unaddressed or if there’s a perception that Labor hasn’t moved fast enough, it could benefit the Coalition.
Political Climate
The political landscape has shown signs of volatility with voters expressing dissatisfaction with both major parties, but if the Coalition can tap into this sentiment effectively, positioning themselves as the party for change or stability, they might capitalise on this mood.
Electoral Dynamics
Seat-by-seat analysis and forecasts suggest a competitive landscape where the Coalition might have a slight edge. For example, new seat-by-seat analysis for the election from Accent Research/RedBridge has shown the Coalition ahead, suggesting a scenario where Labor might not reach a majority in the House of Representatives.
It’s critical to note that these are speculative points based on current trends and polls, which can change rapidly. Factors such as last-minute scandals, changes in public opinion due to future events, or effective campaigning by Labor could alter these dynamics. The actual outcome will depend on how each party addresses the electorate’s concerns in the final months and weeks before the election.
Labor
Based on the available information, several reasons suggest why Labor could win the federal election:
Economic Stabilisation and Policies
Labor has been credited with rescuing the economy from prior damage and stabilizing government debt. The party’s efforts in managing economic recovery, controlling, and providing real wage increases have been noted. With inflation expected to ease to 2.75% by June 2025 (‘expected’ is the key word) and real wages forecasted to rise, these economic conditions could favour Labor if voters perceive these improvements as a result of their policies.
Polling and Sentiment
Despite some polls showing a close race, there are indications that Labor could maintain its lead. For example, the Resolve Political Monitor and Essential polls from late 2024 showed Labor with a slight edge in two-party preferred terms (which surprisingly differs from the recent Roy Morgan poll mentioned above). Additionally, posts on X suggest a narrative where Labor is seen as the more likely winner, even if by a narrow margin.
Leadership Perception
Anthony Albanese’s personal approval ratings might not be at their peak (Sydney Morning Herald, paywalled), but his government’s focus on policies such as tax cuts, cost-of-living relief, strengthening Medicare, and investments in infrastructure and childcare could tick a box with voters. If Albanese can successfully frame the election as a choice between “building Australia’s future” with Labor versus “taking Australia backwards” with the Coalition, this approach could sway voters.
Strategic Campaigning
Labor has been proactive in early campaigning, with Albanese making significant policy announcements and candidate selections in battleground states; Tasmania and Queensland. The focus on education, health, and economic relief could be well-received, particularly if these policies are seen as directly beneficial to voters.
Incumbency Advantage
As the incumbent, Labor has the advantage of implementing policies and showcasing results. If the government can demonstrate effective governance, especially in the months leading up to the election, this could solidify voter support.
Electoral Dynamics
The redistribution of seats might work in Labor’s favour. For instance, the creation of the new Division of Bullwinkel in Western Australia, which is notionally Labor, could add to their tally. Additionally, Labor’s strategy in defending and potentially gaining seats in crucial areas such as Queensland could be decisive.
Voter Frustration with the Opposition
There’s a segment of the electorate that might be frustrated with the Coalition’s leadership under Peter Dutton. If voters see the Coalition’s policies or leadership as regressive or out of touch with current issues, this could drive support towards Labor, especially in urban and progressive areas.
Minor Parties and Independents
While independents and minor parties like the Greens have gained traction, strategic voting and preference deals could still benefit Labor. The trend of “putting majors last” might not necessarily hurt Labor as much as it did the Coalition in 2022, given the political landscape and voter preferences in key seats.
These predictions are based on current trends and can change with shifts in voter opinion, unforeseen events, or effective counter-campaigning by the Coalition. The final outcome will hinge on how these elements play out in the coming months.
Two issues that could savage the Coalition – which I haven’t addressed as at the moment they haven’t received much currency (unless I’ve been looking in the wrong places) – are opposition to Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy and the fear that an incoming Coalition government could revive the unpopular Indue card (despite that being a major factor in their 2022 election loss).
Personally, who do I think will win the federal election? I’m picking Labor, with Albanese to form a minority government.
See also:
Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy policy is unclear policy
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Anybody STUPID enough to support Dutton has a short memory or fascist tendencies. He was a lazy Health Minister, despite the proposed GP Co-Payment, and an authoritarian Immigration, Home Affairs and Defence Minister. The past is prologue.
This article has be ROFL.
Anne, what’s so funny about it?
Nobody despises Dutton more than me, but I wrote this with a view to maintain some neutrality. All I’ve done, after all, is to write about what people have been reporting.
That fucking jerk, masquerading as a human, has as much chance as me of getting up.And I’m not running.It’s ridiculous that the media,who are mostly fuckwits doing what their moron editors think will get the most clicks give this absolute turd any credibility whatsoever.
We have been shunted into a choice of ‘will you vote for this dick, or that dick’ with all the attendant lies and misinformation,playing on the apathy and stupidity of the public in general.The crucial things that actually matter, Climate change, for example, don’t factor in to this brainless and exceedingly dangerous ‘married at first sight’horseshit.Until people have their arse on fire, nothing will change, and by then it will be too late.
Fuck the cretin Dutton and all those camp followers that enable him.
Yeah, well, we’ve all been wrong before…
Howard is unelectable; Abbott is unelectable; Morrison is unelectable; Trump is… oh, wait the leader of the free world again so I better be careful in case he’s about to arrest anyone in the free world who criticises him…
Anyway, I can’t help but feel that Dutton has a basic problem when it comes to every past crisis of Labor: We’ll get the budget back in surplus (it is), We’ll get the unemployment rate down (that’s what’s holding up interest rate cuts), We’ll reduce the debt (Labor is doing that), We’ll cut spending ( but not to any area you want us to), We’ll bring in tax cuts (like the ones we opposed and called a broken promise), We’ll reduce interest rates (maybe a winner there but only if people believe them)…
Oh wait, We’ll refuse to stand in front of any flag but our own… and a few others depending on whose they are!
I don’t think that either side will win a majority and neither deserves to. Labor, Albanese in particular, has been disappointing, and another LNP government , especially with Dutton, is unthinkable. People are sick of the same old, same old, major parties.
We seem to have allowed the Dutton crew to get us fixated on interest rates and ignore inflation.
Inflation was at 6.1% when Labor came into office and is now at 3% with forecasts of 2.75% by June.
During this period The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates 13 times between May 2022 and November 2023. This was the largest increase in the shortest period of time in 40 years. All of these interest rate increases were passed straight on to borrowers (including existing loans) which didn’t need to have been the case
If there was competition between the trading banks they could easily drop their home lending rates by at least .25% or more, after all, those thirteen increases went straight to their bottom lines with no effort on their part.
Labor have, in my view, been very effective as they reined in the economy and brought down inflation while maintaining employment levels and they certainly deserve another term in office to reap the rewards of their discipline. But if we are going to fixate on interest rates let’s look at the banking cartel and get more efficiency and competition into lending.
Cool Pete, the definition of stupid you suggest is a good one.
Unfortunately there are many people who do not listen, do not learn and remain stupid and will swallow the empty rhetoric, the sloganeering and bully tactic put downs.
I’m not prepared to put any money on the result, but will work hard to ensure that the candidates in my electorate, both federal and state have the best shot at winning their seats.
I am letter box dropping, door knocking, talking with those willing to engage in discussion and will be working at the booths to ensure I have done as much as I can to secure those seats. Hopefully that work is replicated throughout the state and nation.
And fingers toes and just about everything else will be crossed as the votes are counted on election night.
A friend told me that 1.8 million adults who vape in this country will definitely not be voting for Labor.
@MIchael Taylor: Does that mean when the over 4,000 carcinogenic compounds present in vapes do their worst and create cancers, that the vapers will be placed last in the triage for access to the medical services that just might save their lives ….. to vape on regardless as their right to die in pain at public expense??
I actually researched this after hearing that.
A doctor I know gave me a link to 88 overseas medial and government sites that all conclude that vaping is 95% safer than smoking. Another doctor -told me that the chances of dying from vaping is about the same chances as being kicked to death by a duck.