By Jack Arnold
The Liberal and Nationals candidates were convincingly defeated by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHONey) party in the Farrer bye-election. Credible local Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe outperformed them, securing second place with majorities in 13 of 14 booths in the Albury district and 2 of 5 booths in Griffith.
Notably, Milthorpe received more votes than the combined total of the Liberals, Nationals, Greens, Shooters, Fishers & Farmers, Family First, and Gerard Rennick’s People First parties.
It may be time for the Coalition parties to move beyond relying on brand recognition and focus on genuinely representing the interests of voters in their electorates. However, meaningful change seems unlikely given the apparent lack of strong leadership talent within both parties.
Ley retirement a poisoned chalice for aspiring Conservative candidates
This by-election gave voters their first real chance to express their views on the party that was supposed to represent them. In classic PHONey style, the party bore the brunt of voter dissatisfaction with the record of the retired incumbent.
The former MP was often seen as too focused on her role as Opposition leader in Canberra to address pressing local issues in Farrer – such as Murray-Darling Basin water allocations, population leaving the region for work, declining hospital services in an outdated and overcrowded facility, and critical shortages of government staff due to a lack of suitable housing.
Analytical wash-up
Two Sydney Morning Herald journalists have highlighted in their analysis of the Farrer results what many regional voters have long understood:
1. Government spending is disproportionately directed to metropolitan areas rather than regional electorates.
2. Regional politicians, once in Parliament in the capital cities, often lose focus on their own electorates. Billions are spent in metro areas while infrastructure in regional centres deteriorates and frontline services struggle to retain staff.
3. Securing government funding for infrastructure or services often requires living in a marginal “swinging” electorate that the major parties are eager to win or hold.
4. Rejection of both major conservative parties remains a genuine option for voters, especially where credible local Independents are willing to represent their communities rather than unelected party powerbrokers.
5. There is a growing trend of National Party politicians leaving to become Independents in order to better represent their voters.
Across the Murray River in Indi, Dr Helen Haines has continued the Independent tradition started by Cathy McGowan. Andrew Gee serves as an Independent in Calare, following the late Peter Andren. Earlier notable examples include Tony Windsor in New England and Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.
One Nation and Donor Influence
Questions have been raised about how effectively PHONey politicians serve their electorates, particularly after reports that the party has received substantial financial support from Gina Rinehart and associated entities – including $1 million, a $1.5 million four-seater aeroplane, and a further $2 million from related Hancock entities and third-party donors.
The two current PHONey politicians are already millionaires in their own right following long parliamentary careers. This level of funding has prompted concerns that policy positions may be shaped, at least in part, by the interests of major donors in the mining and resources sector.
It is worth noting that Senator Pauline Hanson has voted with the Coalition against all fourteen pieces of Labor legislation aimed at improving conditions for workers.
The Barnaby Joyce Factor
Barnaby Joyce lost automatic Nationals pre-selection for sitting members after the Tamworth-based committee chair was replaced by a female candidate. The new chair reportedly viewed Joyce as unsuitable to represent the women of New England. He has since joined PHONey, where his record over 13 years in office can be framed in more forgiving terms.
Looking Ahead
Voters in Farrer may soon experience buyer’s remorse if One Nation’s campaign style – characterised by strong rhetoric but limited detailed local policy – fails to deliver. By the 2028 election, a credible local Independent could well challenge the likely PHONey candidate, positioning themselves as a genuine voice for the electorate rather than for broader corporate interests.
* * * *’*
Jack Arnold is a retired academic polymath who commenced his professional career as a research scientist and ended as a lawyer, with too many decades of education between. To stay busy he has taken an active interest in all levels of local New England politics for the past 50 years, assisting in the election of three progressive candidates, the latter two being very busy Independent representatives for their communities.
Since the retirement of these politicians in 2013, New England has stagnated economically and socially with pre-selected Nationals being elected to Parliaments in the strange local belief that voting for 19th century ideals would yield the new government infrastructure projects that our kids will need to live in the electorates in this 21st century.
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this result would have been completely different if labor had bothered to field a candidate. what option did confirmed labor voters have? they were completely ignored by labor not fielding a candidate and because of compulsory voting they had to vote for some one else! so i suspect they deliberately voted for PHONA as a protest for being ignored by labor just putting it out there for discussion seeing no one else is
‘Lessons for Liberals’ It could have ended there because writing anything on that topic is moot. They never, ever learn and they never will.
“Millionaires in their own right” So, a long Parliamentory career is the path to becoming a millionaire, golly gosh, my school careers advisor never mentioned this option!
The two current PHONey politicians are already millionaires in their own right following long parliamentary careers.
Hohum…
Eric Taylor
You raise an interesting point.
In recent elections where Labor have fielded a candidate, they have consistently held a low primary vote in Farrer, falling below 20% in the last four elections.
Even so, with the Liberals preferencing One Nation it could have been an opportunity for Labor to increase its vote and by preferencing the independent they could have disrupted the flow of votes to One Nation.
A good point for discussion.
@ Eric Taylor: Labor took a sensible financial decision to stay out of the Farrer bye-election, and back a credible local Independent, Michelle Milthorpe, with a track record of cutting the Liberals margin from 18.2% to 6.8%.
Then the COALition stepped in, with extraordinary shortsightedness and ineptitude by failing to look beyond the insides of their political eyelids and amazingly (NOT!!) shot themselves in both feet by preferencing the PHONeys ahead of the Independent.
This will likely lead to the demolition of the do nothing NOtional$ in 2028 in regional electorates. The LIARBRAL$ are already on the rack with their Presidency likely to be gifted to the Toxic RAbbott, the ”suppository of wisdom”. Surely we are seeing the 80 year life cycle of organisations being lived out in real time as both COALition partners go down together.
So the 2031 feral elections look like being between the Greens as the left wing and LABOR as the incumbent centre right government. This can be successful for workers provided that All-Bully-Only grows some political testicles and makes some more hard decisions in favour of Australian voters rather than foreign owned multinational corporations.
Labor didn’t contest Farrer because Albanese didn’t want to risk a poor showing before the Budget and post the Anti-Semitism ruckus. Labor did not want a loss against another competent independent even though that would not affect their current majority in the Lower House. Labor correctly predicted that by not representing Farrer the LNP/NP coalition would receive all of the local “anti-Uniparty” angst of the electorate thus proving that the coalition have lost relevance in the current political atmosphere. Thus Labor is out of the headlines for the moment.
“There is a growing trend of National Party politicians leaving to become Independents in order to better represent their voters”.
That was the case; now it’s more like a better chance of holding the seat and salary by dumping the Nationals and brazenly jumping on Hanson’s bandwagon.
I won’t be surprised if we see more gNats (and maybe a few Loser…er,Liberals) jumping from their flea infested political ship to try their luck in the plague ridden rowboat of ON.