Not everything I write is satire…
Sometimes I describe exactly what’s going on and other times I write satire…
Of course, it’s not easy to tell the difference. I get that. And when it comes to predicting the future, I’d just like to say that if you pick the most far-fetched scenario you can think of and write it down, you’ll probably be wrong, but there’s certainly a chance that you’ll look like a genius if you happen to pick the Tony Abbott/Donald Trump/Rupert Murdoch will be shot by firing squad under orders from Trump scenario… Ok, that last one hasn’t happened yet, but imagine if I get that right!
So, I can’t help but wonder why anyone takes the prognostications over interest rates seriously. I mean, imagine a football commentator who told you that Team A was going to have a big win, only to change his/her mind when a couple of goals were kicked by the other side, telling you that the other side was a certainty…
Or imagine an investment advisor told you to invest in lithium stocks because lithium was going to boom, only to change their mind and tell you to get out of them because lithium was going to crash, then follow up with lithium stocks are cheap because people have stopped mining it and they’ll go up so…
Actually that is what happened with lithium…
Anyway, let’s retrace the interest rates thing:
- Phil Lowe tells us that interest rates won’t go up before 2024.
- Several interest rate rises later, he says that he was wrong, in fact, but not in theory.
- He is not reappointed after telling us that maybe we should try house sharing.
- New governor, Michelle Bullock, tells us that we still need another one because inflation isn’t going away any time soon.
- Inflation steadily reduces till it fits into the RBA’s preferred 2-3%
- There is a general consensus that the RBA should have cut rates mid-year but they waited too long and…
- Oh, wait, figures from two months suggest that the dragon isn’t slain.
- Bullock tells us that the RBA relies on data (a great relief given I started to suspect that they were examining the entrails of chickens), so they’ll be looking at that and making decisions based on what happens in the future but they’ll be prepared to raise interest rates if necessary… which they’re suggesting it will be and they have a great record of predicting the future… Nobody asked them for the Tattslotto numbers…
- 1, 26, 33, 35, 42, 45… these won’t be the correct numbers but, gee, if I’m right it’s a lot harder than picking whether interest rates go up or down and so many economists get that one wrong, so we should all take those numbers next week… Of course, I’ll forget and we’ll be pissed off when they win…
- A colt by So You Think will win the Cup in the next three years.
- The AFL/NRL premiership will be won by a team who is very obvious by the end of the year but nobody will have given them any chance at the start of the season.
These last few things have nothing to do with interest rates but why should I be relevant when almost nobody writing about economics sticks to the topic?
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