I CAN predict both of those things, but I can’t guarantee to predict them ACCURATELY!!
(Ok, stick with this because it’s not just some silly clickbait…)
Yes, yes, surely that’s the point of predictions… At least one would think so.
However, it doesn’t seem to be important in matters economic.
For example, I read this morning that there’d be three more interest rates rises.
Mm, I suspect that’s entirely possible. However, when I tell you that Goody Two Shoes will win the Melbourne Cup and the first three numbers in Tattslotto this week will be 26, 11 and 42, then you’d probably ignore my future prognostications were I to not get any of those things correct… Ok, you might give me another chance, but…
Anyway, if I’d told you in 2021 that interest rates wouldn’t go up until 2024 and then told you in 2025 that they were coming down and there’d be several cuts in 2026 and then changed my mind and told you that – after several increases in 2026 – there’d be at least two, probably three, you’d be quite sure that I’m right because I’m doing this as an ECONOMIST who knows things and not as some stupid person who doesn’t know the future. As an economist, I know what should happen, it’s just that occasionally things change and then I won’t be wrong, it’ll be the world that fails to live up to my sound prediction.
Yes, I’m sure that some of you will say that their prediction for the winner of the AFL flag or the Cup winner or whatever would have been accurate too, if it were not for the simple fact of certain things changing such as five players getting suspended or a horse not running fast enough, but that’s not quite the same as economics where – if everything happens like we expect it to and nothing changes – then the economist will be correct!
Ok, I can predict that some of you will be saying that surely that’s just like saying that my horse would have won the Cup if if he’d just run faster or if only he’d got in the race, but there’s a big difference…
I don’t know what it is, but I can accurately predict that an economist would be able to explain why they weren’t wrong; it was reality that didn’t work as it should have…
Rossleigh, you are an optimist!! Thinking that an economist has any knowledge about how to manage a business let alone a national economy.
The ”economy” is the sham that is the fallback article for bored scribblers needing to ”create” an article rather than follow the Murdochcracy Media Manipulation Monopoly example of AI generated ”entertainment”. It is based on often irrelevant, incomplete information gathered from entities too busy to bother about accuracy should the relevant Treasury sub-department manage to get the requested self-reporting data sheets out to producers in adequate time.
I am reminded that when we were an agricultural enterprise, we received the data sheet AFTER the final report was released publicly.
Have you noticed that the RBA and their scribbler screamers concentrate on jacking up interest rates every time prices are put up due to lack of price control??
This strategy favours the bosses who have too frequently given themselves HUGE BONUSES for price gouging rather than investing in improved manufacturing capacity to grow the mythical ”productivity”.
There will always be economic pain for workers when the bosses have carte blanche to pay themselves whatever they like, price gouge with impunity and get almost unlimited credit to obscure their inept management practices that must keep productivity unchanged. Makes you think that the NOtional$ are correct to achieve nothing for their electorates so that change never happens.
I can’t for the life of me see the reason for the antagonism towards economists.
Just take the unforgettable Fred Hilmer for example, whose sterling work on National Competition Policy in the 1990s led to the emergence of Hansonism.
Then he distinguished himself as CEO of Fairfax, when he invested heavily in a new printing facility for The Age at Tullamarine.
This reduced staff numbers from 280 to 160, prompting conflict with the Australian Manufacturing Worker’s Union.
Strikes led to The Age losing an edition for the first time in its history, and Hilmer delayed the opening of the new facility for three months to force the union to concede to the demand of management to have sole discretion over which staff were transferred to the new facility.
At the conclusion of the dispute, Hilmer issued each member of the management group who presided over the building of the Tullamarine plant with a golf ball inscribed with the names of unionists who he considered had given them trouble. He later wrote that the balls were still turning up years later on golf courses in Sydney and Melbourne.
How about a bitter respect? 🙂
We should not be judgemental, so I judge people by asking the question — would I have this person over for a BBQ?
Who would you rather have at a barbie, Fred Hilmer or this bloke?
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2026/09/07/an-honest-union-leader-who-the-bosses-tried-to-frame/
We have some of the best economists in the world. Evidence: they have successfully predicted seventeen of the last two recessions.
Michael Taylor, they wouldn’t know a good recession if they fell over one.
The only two people I respect as ‘economists’ are Ross Gittins and Michael West, neither are economists as per se, however they understand and discuss the entire breadth of what makes up an economy!