The missing nine per cent: Will Farrer voters choose fresh local representation or more of the same?
By Jack Arnold
In the 2025 federal election for the seat of Farrer, 10,234 informal votes were cast – 9.03% of the total turnout of 113,297. With the upcoming by-election on 9 May 2026 shaping up as a contest between Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley, those informal votes could prove decisive.
Recent polling and commentary suggest a tight race, with Milthorpe – a local teacher, business owner, and advocate for regional issues including health services and support for families – positioned as a credible community-focused alternative. Farley, a 69-year-old agribusiness consultant, represents Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.
The success of independents in other regional electorates offers a point of comparison. In Victoria’s Indi, voters have twice elected and re-elected independents: first Cathy McGowan and then Dr Helen Haines. These outcomes demonstrate that regional communities can be well served by locally grounded representatives who prioritise electorate needs over party lines.
In New South Wales, several electorates west of the Great Dividing Range have also turned to independents. Helen Dalton in Murray has focused on Murray-Darling Basin water policy. Dr Joe McGirr in Wagga Wagga has advocated for better regional health infrastructure. Roy Butler in Barwon has highlighted the need for road maintenance and upgrades across his vast electorate. Phil Donato in Orange has worked to secure strong outcomes for his constituents from the state government.
A common concern raised about major parties in regional seats is the influence of central party organisations – often based in metropolitan areas – over pre-selections and ministerial roles. Similar questions about internal party structures and external influences arise with smaller parties too.
One Nation has recently received significant funding, including over $2 million in donations linked to entities associated with Gina Rinehart, as well as the gift of a new Cirrus SR22 aircraft valued at more than $1 million. Supporters argue this will help the party campaign more effectively across regional Australia. Critics, however, question whether large donations from any single source can affect a party’s perceived independence.
Farrer voters now face a clear choice. They can support a local independent like Michelle Milthorpe, who emphasises improved health care infrastructure, services for families, and addressing the practical challenges faced by regional communities after years of perceived neglect by distant decision-makers.
Alternatively, they can back David Farley and One Nation, whose platform aligns with the party’s broader national agenda and benefits from substantial private backing.
The high informal vote in 2025 suggests many in Farrer are dissatisfied with the options they’ve been given. With polling day approaching, the question is whether enough of those voters – and the broader electorate – will turn out to back a candidate they believe will deliver tangible improvements for their communities and their children, or whether familiar patterns of party-aligned representation will prevail.
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Jack Arnold is a retired academic polymath who commenced his professional career as a research scientist and ended as a lawyer, with too many decades of education between. To stay busy he has taken an active interest in all levels of local New England politics for the past 50 years, assisting in the election of three progressive candidates, the latter two being very busy Independent representatives for their communities.
Since the retirement of these politicians in 2013, New England has stagnated economically and socially with pre-selected Nationals being elected to Parliaments in the strange local belief that voting for 19th century ideals would yield the new government infrastructure projects that our kids will need to live in the electorates in this 21st century.
Regional Independents get things done for their communities.
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The voters of Farrer would have to be either politically naive or very stupid to elect anyone other than Milthorpe but especially Farley who represents a party, One Nation, with few policies (and those should be anathema to Farrer) and little respect.
One Nation have no elected members in the House of Representatives, where all significant legislation is initiated before going to the Senate . One Nation do have one representative in the House of Reps. in the form of Barnaby Joyce who was elected to that House as a National Party member but, he has already stated that he will not seek to be re-elected to that seat on behalf of One Nation.
So, if Farley does win the seat of Farrer he will take his place as the soon to be sole One Nation member in the House of Reps.
Far better the people of Farrer elect Michelle Milthorpe who seems in all respects a much better representative for Farrer than Charley Farley.
Thanks Jack, for the detailed insights into the Farrer electorate.
Is the former Shooters, fishers and farmers party Helen Dalton making any headway? Just that I haven’t seen anything much on her and the Greens.
When Tony Windsor turned Independent was he able to get more for his electorate (albeit New England)?
Constantly electing Nationals candidates in any electorate comes at a price, not just that the Nationals represent mining rather than farming, as either the Nationals are in opposition without influence or are in power and can afford to take the vote for granted, failing to do much for the electorate. It seems that the deal between the Libs and Nationals was the Nationals support was granted for the ability to pork barrel come the election.
Was that also applicable to a Liberal winning (Ley)?
Is there any evidence that the voters in Farrer see any strategy in making the seat marginal or voting in a non-Coalition candidate to shake out any taking the electorate for granted?
There is a prevailing antipathy to the Greens in the regions, so I’m guessing the Greens candidate is not a consideration. This antipathy is not something I understand other than there has been a pervasive perception that the Greens are anti-forestry and socialist (the irony of that in Nationals seats).
T Mills touches on needs and realities, for Farrer needs wide planning, deep consideration, and better than egofarts with multiple bad efforts known, and water thieving predators prominent. An indy is a broadbased less prejudicial type. Little satisfaction is the likely “winner”, and in a Murray-Darling electorate of real national significance, Wine game shaky, known past irrigation evils, huge cost burdens rising fast…and, who would have thought that “Ley would be missed?” ( Farley = poorly) But, it’s the strident, vacant, aggressive negativity of Hansonism that irritates, a dead end for national rational success. From the broom to a donated plane…we’ll cop it from a great height. Imagine the velocity of B Joyce’s chunders.
Millions of dollars and fancy planes won’t make PHON any more/less popular. She has nothing to give, has never achieved anything, and is unlikely to – ever. A vote for PHON is a wasted vote.
ON is 8th and a long way from the donkey so Michelle is pretty well placed to win.
Thanks NEC.
GOOD NEWS!! The Nepean (Victoria) Bye-election on 2 May 2026 returned the LIBERALS CANDIDATE Anthony Marsh with the 2CP votes 63.5% for a +6.8% swing and Independent Tracee Hutchinson 36.5% (-6.8%).
Bye-election preferences flowed 62% to Liberals, 37.9% to Independent.
THE PHONey candidate placed third, with a further five (5) candidates each polling less than 10%, including Greens. Informal was 4.6% and greater than 4/5 minor candidates.
Reference: Antony Green, 2026 – Nepean By-election – Results, Last Update 2237 hours AEST 2 May 2026.
They will vote for Hanson. Labor refused the option of taxing the fuels multi nationals.
In which case, the Indie DOES also have a chance, because the Indies are surely held in much higher esteem than the major groupings even in a somewhere like Farrer.
But does even a genuine indie have enough credibility in an electorate like Farrer?
The rural elements want action on fuels, and quickly. I think their frustrations will lead them to vote in ON as a protest against the duopoly.
That the Liberals have chosen to direct preferences to One Nation is this by-election demonstrates that they’ve truly jumped the shark. Howard’s disendorsement of Hanson ignored. The one-way trip to oblivion for that former significant political party cannot be highly enough applauded.