The Farrer by-election offers a real opportunity for Australian Progressive Politics. This by-election is a potential change-maker.
Conservative representatives have an enormous swathe of regional federal electorates across Australia. In Queensland, these conservative electorates extend into coastal areas north of the Petrie electorate in Brisbane with the current exception of Leichhardt. The twilight zone of adversarial politics extends from the regions to outer metro areas like Longman in Brisbane’s Outer North and even Canning in Metro Perth’s South.
In Canning, Andrew Hastie MP with 42.5 percent of the primary vote scored a swing of 1 percent on his primary vote. This result was built up to 56.6 percent after preference allocations from far-right parties. In Canning the supportive preferences for the LNP came from One Nation and the Citizens’ Party.
A victory for a more moderate Independent in Farrer would have immense national significance in cooling the adversarial nature of politics in regional areas and in outer metro areas.
At this stage, the outcomes of the Farrer by-election are impossible to anticipate. With the support of preference flows from Labor and the Greens, Independent Michelle Milthorpe has a real chance of success. Her significant support against Sussan Ley in the 2025 Australian elections has been well noted by political commentators (Image: Simplified AEC Map from SMH 13 February 2026):
Michelle Milthorpe has quite a following in Albury but her vote after preferences her vote was still 12 percent below Sussan Ley’s vote across the sprawling electorate in 2025 as shown by the overall voting returns:
2025 Voting Returns in Farrer (Image: Wikipedia)
The results in Albury itself divided approximately 55 to 45 percent in favour of Michelle Milthorpe after preferences. This was Michelle’s strongest support area of support.
The relative prosperity of large towns and farming districts across the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA) and Murray Valley distinguishes Farrer from some other regional electorates with higher levels of social disadvantage and a more marginal political category.
Drought conditions and excessive summer heat should click with a grassroots awareness of the need for more action against global warming and climate change. Conservatives detest Labor’s energy initiatives. Liberal Deputy leader, Senator Jane Hume, restated her commitment to nuclear power options (Insiders 14 February 2026).
The more disadvantaged regional electorates very occasionally to Labor in Page, Hinkler and Capricornia. Even Andrew Hastie’s seat of Canning was won by Labor in the substantial swings of 1983 and 1998.
Farrer has never taken this path since the formation of the electorate in 1949. It is far from being a swing seat for Labor. However, the election of a moderate and mainstream representative in Farrer is so important as a symbolic token for the future of regional Australian politics.
My articles for theaimn.net occasionally refer to The Rappville Factor in voting trends in less advantaged conservative regional electorates.
In the Page electorate of Northern NSW, social disadvantage sometimes results in Labor victories. The hamlet of Rappville does not appear on the AEC map of Page. Rappville is located around 30 kilometres south of Casino. Countrylink trains do not stop here. Even the refurbished Commercial Hotel was sold at a very affordable price (Image: Amanda Johnson Realty):
The Commercial Hotel Site with No Beer in Rappville
Rappville is less than 70 kilomteres from Evans Head and within the hinterland of adjacent beach resorts. The location of Rappville makes housing prices more affordable than at the coast. I spotted a basic three-bedroom house on 1,705 square metres of land for a negotiable price of $350,000 on the News Corp owned web site of realestate.com.au. It seems to be a pleasant place for a kitchen garden and your own egg supplies plus occasional trips to the surf after an hour’s drive.
Politically, Rappville does not change with the short-term political winds in Canberra. It even resisted Anthony Albanese’s return to more needs-based policies at the 2025 election. As in many regional electorates, the swing to Labor in Page after preference was an overall swing to the National Party of 3.9 percent on primary votes and 3.6 percent after preferences. This went against the national trend which re-elected the Albanese Government in a landslide with opportunities for a strong united front with crossbench senators.
Ironically, voters in Rappville have warmed up to the campaigning style of the National Party since 2013. Populist rhetoric has eroded class loyalties in the recent past.
Janelle Saffin, as the incoming Labor MP in 2007, won this booth on primary votes and preferences in Rappville. She achieved 54.7 percent of the votes in Rappville after preferences. The rate of informal voting was 4.8 percent in 2007. This informality had tripled by 2025. The National’s Kevin Hogan has built up his vote to 74 percent after preferences on generous allocations of preferences from the usual far-right parties. AEC graphics for the Rappville Polling booth are not sharp enough to be copied but are available online.
The Largely National Party Heartland of Page
Farrer has been more consistent with its political choices since the formation of this federal seat in 1949. All federal representatives have been from the conservative parties. However, Independent Michelle Milthorpe achieved good results in Albury itself. These results peaked at 62.6 percent after preferences for Michelle Milthorpe at Albury West Polling booth.
Michelle Milthorpe has the capacity to restore the politics of hope in Farrer to assist in the political transformation of regional Australia as commenced by Dr Helen Haines in the adjacent electorate of Indi in Victoria.
Ionically, US academic opinion has strengthened our understanding of just why more disadvantaged communities respond to dog-whistle politics to vote against their own self-interest. Dr Gerard Kosicki at Ohio State University’s School of Communication and Ian Haney López have assisted in deconstructing this problem.
Professor Ian Haney López at the Public Law School at University of California in Berkeley described Ronald Reagan as having “blown a dog whistle” in telling stories about “Cadillac-driving ‘welfare queens’and ‘strapping young bucks’ buying T-bone steaks with food stamps” on the campaign trail for the Republican Party.
Controlling the more difficult problems of dog whistle politics requires more minds to soak up balanced opinions to counter the rise of Sky News and the drift in ABC programming to vacuous episodes of quiz programmes over entertaining but quality dramas to compete with overseas based streaming services. Airtime is soon occupied with more economical but boring programmes. Quality programme can indeed be Australian exports despite the wrath of the Trump administration when such initiatives are considered here.
If humanity survives this Trump era and learns to control politically motivated media networks, I expect the 2030s to be a peaceful and left-leaning era in both Australia and globally. Future leaders try to tame global capitalism with more open trade and investment by applying the investment multiplier to deliver the essentials of affordable housing, environmental initiatives and other essentials through the resources available through both private and public sector networks.
Keeping Farrer out of the hands of the far-right is an important insurance premium against those never-ending cultural wars which deceive our most disadvantaged fellow-Australians into accepting the prevailing status quo in a thousand country towns and rural districts across regional Australia.
The delivery date of the 2026-27 federal budget is tentatively scheduled for 12 May 2026. An earlier date might be possible so that the by-election can be help after the budget delivery. Of course, Easter and the autumn school holidays in NSW will also influence the election date.
Treasurer Chalmer’s budget communications are usually a big plus for the government. Perhaps one interest rate increase by the RBA will be enough with added budget sweeteners including progressive tax reform, action on tax evasion by multinational companies and proactive Australian responses to the surveillance of our national commercial investment through the US Trade Representatives (UTR Officers) posted to US embassies and consulates here and in other middle powers with America First Agendas that are even telegraphed in their official web site. A little fiscal tinkering can also be an anti-inflation measure to ease inflationary pressures and threats of more interest rate rises with emphasis on investment rather than spending.
The drift to more progressive policies is complicated by the rise of One Nation in recent polling. NSW State Independent Helen Dalton MP for Murray may stand as a One Nation Candidate. Helen Dalton represents voters in the Griffith-Deniliquin Districts.
ABC News (13 February 2026) offered feedback from across Farrer on the mood of voters. Only a foolish commentator could back winners at this stage.
In the context of an innovative 2026-27 budget, Labor can call on the conservative candidates in Farrer to be more upfront about their own tax cut proposals in the context of long-standing taxation breaks offered to multinational companies and comfortably off property investors. Targeting bracket creep is on the Albanese Government’s agenda. It is in the interests of the government to have these proposals for 2026-27 available for discussion prior to the by-election.
These initiatives worked magic in the Aston by-election of April 2023. The Albanese Government reversed its initial commitment to the delivery of Stage 3 tax cuts to wealthy Australians as promised by the Morrison Government.
Michelle Milthorpe can support similar proposals for living standard relief to improve her chances in Farrer.
Today’s Stage 4 tax changes represent a “multi-step” relief strategy aimed at the lowest income brackets. This policy is particularly relevant to the 2026–27 cycle because it targets the bracket creep that disproportionately affects regional workers in retail, health, and agriculture.
Implementation Timeline and Details
- 1 July 2026 (Phase 1): The tax rate for income between $18,201 and $45,000 is being reduced from 16% to 15%.
- 1 July 2027 (Phase 2): This rate is further reduced to 14%.
Here is another opportunity for the Albanese Government to offer the unexpected outcomes like Environmental Protection legislation, the anti-hate speech measures and bans on inappropriate soft media influence on junior high school students.
From the side lines, negative comments about Angus Taylor’s leadership style have come from former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull whose own resignation from the LNP leadership paved the way for Scott Morrison to move Australia in a far-right direction.
Progressive Liberals Should be Welcome in the Australian United Front
The by-election outcomes will have enormous influence on the existing conservative hegemony across regional Australia. TEAL influence can be extended to country towns needing more health care and other social initiatives as well as more income tax relief through more rapid implementation of Stage 4 tax cuts.
The best style of resistance at personal and political level comes from consensus-building through outstanding communication initiatives to strengthen mutual rapport. Let’s hope that Michelle Milthorpe MP can triumph in Farrer with her own variations of people-first initiatives. This would be a momentous change for politics in Farrer and beyond across regional Australia.
Let’s roll out the FDR theme music in premature and perhaps naïve hopes for our future and the restoration of our national sovereignty:
The Army Stars – Happy days are here again!
Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building on the critical issues raised in each article. Your comments on this and related articles can be recorded on theaimn.net site.
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Thanks Denis for promoting the battlers in Rappville: Seems like a good place to buy a country house not too far from the coast: Why stay in Melbourne when you can live it up in Northern NSW this winter. Does the National Party in Page really care about the welfare of Rappville as a local community despite its 74 percent for for the National Party.
Houses in the local electorates of Richmond and Page are unaffordable. There is little political participation in the beach communities.Send me to Sydney are the regional MP for Tweed and I will speak up for a better deal and the need for more social housing.
Houses in the local electorates of Richmond and Page are unaffordable. There is little political participation in the beach communities.Send me to Sydney are the regional MP for Tweed and I will speak up for a better deal and the need for more social housing.
You would a a great member for Tweed State Electorate, Burleigh
A convincing case for the election of Michelle Milthop MP. Let’s make it happen withsupportive comments from the soft media .
Multi-million houses and towns choked with heavy traffic co-exist with rural poverty.
The choice of The Rappville Factor is a little unfortunate. About two months ago we detoured through Rappville and noted the stately old pub that has survived bushfires, droughts and floods, the Explorer train passing through on the NSW North Coast Line and the small population of about 170 (Wikipedia). This is too small a sample group to draw any general conclusions about voting trends in the NSW Lismore electorate, let alone compare to the so far distant south-south west feral electorate of Farrer.
Perhaps the most important fact in the article is that the INFORMAL VOTE was 4.8% at the Rappville booth compared to the Farrer electorate INFORMAL VOTE OF 10.0%.
There has been a quiet political revolution west of the NSW Range with 4/8 NSW electorates, Barwon, Murray, Orange and Wagga Wagga electing INDEPENDENT MPs who have done a sterling job demonstrating why the NOtional$ are a waste of space.
Voters in Farrer have noticed these efforts and correctly think that they deserve at least the same access to government infrastructure funding for roads, airports, hospitals and state schools.
The very real hope for Farrer voters is INDEPENDENT candidate Michelle Millthorpe who reduced Sus$san’s margin at the 2025 elections from about 18.2% to about 6.8%, a huge LOSS for a 25 year term sitting senior LIARBRAL$ politician.
REGIONAL INDEPENDENTS GET THINGS DONE FOR THEIR COMMUNITIES.
What do LIARBRAL$, NOtional$ and ONLY NUTTERS do??
Thanks Denis for your passionate support for change in regional politics. The far-right in formal politics does not represent the regions. There are hospitable people across the regions with great Australian values. The National Party and others are exploiting this regional hospitality.
In the tradition of Wikileaks files on the US Alliance from 2010, Treasury and Finance can open its unclassified AI files on our economy and its privileged economic relationships with Britain and the US. Reveal the real extent of corporate tax evasion and US controls on our investment relationships that are causing the very problems that Angus Taylor rails about. Simply blaming the federal government is not good enough. It offers no way out of such deeply entrenched problems if ever the LNP returns to government with its far-right ministerial team.
Thanks for an interesting summary of regional Australian politics.
It seems we’ve always invited British and American large companies here to help kick-start our industries, and with them came the big $$ of investors. Initially a situation normal for growing countries like Oz. It boot-strapped skills diversity and trades education and growth in employment (and immigration) in the building of Oz (not forgetting that Oz gold was one of the biggest boons – even though not all locales were so endowed).
It is no surprise that then those businesses were usually recklessly stripping bare Oz resources, and as time went on, in many cases, stripping Oz wallets by their cornered-market profit gouging.
Of course this went on and on to the delight of politicians and elites with their fingers in the pies of the Oz subsidiaries of these foreign companies.
Post WWII Oz became more sophisticated, in other words, the guile of these operations, whilst providing for massive employment and immigration, muddied the waters of accountability through lobbying, tax deals and protectionism.
Oh what a lifestyle, Oz was hooked and barbed. Decentralization, nah. Only those joints where there was gold or sheep/wheat transport hubs and water – speaking of this, was Oz importing another ‘great dust bowl’? She’ll be right, mate. Otherwise keep ’em all corralled in the ‘big smoke’.
Oz had the Anglo-American recipe down pat. Or so it thought, until the arrival of the late 1970s and the 1980s when things started to go pear-shaped in Anglo-America, and it was ‘fixed’ by Maggie Thatcher’s de-industrialization and Ronnie Reagan’s ‘trickle down’, very shortly to be followed by neo-liberalism / neo-conservatism. Oh yeah! Of course they were right, and Oz jumped on the band wagon.
But not finished yet with asset stripping, soon those mega-companies morphed into chimeric jurisdiction-jumping multi-national behemoths siphoning up everything and escaping taxes. Their principals and investors soon controlling the world’s wealth and its politicians – their accumulations exceeding the heft of many countries.
The trouble is, these dupers, other than by abstract financial prestidigitation, did not know how to make wealth and enrichment via projects. And projects for the people were no longer able to afford the insatiable profit and growth benchmarks set by these behemoths. So the whole caboodle stalled. The world’s necessary economic spin slowed, and the lack of essential centrifugal force saw it collapse in on itself. The behemoths having no other idea started buying up all the land and property owned by anyone – its price skyrocketed. And the parliaments finally woke up to themselves.
That’s where we’re at. But how to untangle it all? Oz is incrementally winding it back, being very careful of the behemoths and their US orange Darth Vader, albeit, the right wing of the Oz parliaments remain fixated on the schemes of the behemoths and the guile of the orange Darth Vader.
The capture of Oz, like the majority of others, of ‘Western’ inclination, have all had havoc wreaked upon them, and suffered the thousand cuts of usury and extraction by the companies become behemoths, as well as being beguiled by their rhetoric and bling.
It’s now become a blatant ‘western’ global gouging fest in tiers driven by critical mass, with families, individuals, the young and disabled most effected. It spares no-one urban or regional, and it’s likely to get worse before it gets untangled and better. Any notion of cultural / political divide between urban and regional is a manufactured ruse. They are mutually dependent on one another.
So casting a vote based upon the old notion of such a divide is fraught and self-defeating.
Let’s keep discussing and investigating the problems of tax avoidance by multinationals. The Crisafulli Government ignores these problems when its leaders complains about inadequate funding for the Commonwealth State Hospital Agreement and grants to maintain essential services. Well over 40 percent of Queensland’s budget comes from Canberra in grants and GST allocations. The Q rhetoric is always about the need for lower taxes but Q has a $9 billion deficit for 2025-26 and twice that amount in full financial deficits which include interest repayments on accumulated debt.