Lately I’ve been pondering a very interesting question:
When does an event become a trend?
It’s probably something that’s worth a thesis by a philosopher or a mathematician, but in simple terms, we’ve frequently heard from certain people that a single weather event isn’t evidence of climate change and everything that some would argue is a growing trend, others will insist is simply a series of single weather events and therefore of no significance.
In many cases it’s easy to see that something is a single event. For example, if I go to Sydney and see hordes of people decked out in orange, I may conclude that the colour orange has suddenly become fashionable. However, if somebody points out that the AFL team, Greater Western Sydney, is playing in a grand final, then it’s reasonable to assume that may have something to with the preponderance of orange being worn and it’s neither fashion nor a sudden surge in the number of people voting for One Nation…
On the other hand, recent opinion polls are assuring us that there has been a surge in support for Pauline Hanson and this has led to numerous people telling us that they will – not only be the Opposition after the election – but are certainties to become the next government…
Acquiring Barnaby Joyce is apparently an enormous coup and this has boosted their hopes enormously… This puzzles me because only a few months ago it was being suggested the Coalition 1.0 was hiding him because he was a liability and now he’s the best thing since sliced bread… which begs the question what was the best thing before sliced bread?
Anyway, the surging support for Pauline and partners is being assumed to be a trend and not an event. Of course, it’s been happening over a period of time, so it’s tempting to presume that anything that happens over several months is a trend and not an event, but I’m not so sure. If something is being caused by an event that that’s in the process of happening then is the thing that’s happening a trend or an event? In other words, is the record poll numbers for One Nation an event being brought on because Sussan Ley has preferred leader numbers of 22%… and that’s in the federal Liberal Party itself.
Moving on to interest rates, it always intrigues me that the RBA and economists have been able to tell us with great certainty when something is an event and when it’s a trend. For example, last year they were able to tell us that there was a clear path ahead and we’d be getting interest rate cuts this year and they foresaw this trend until the events of the last three months of 2025 showed them that it wasn’t, in fact, a trend towards cuts but a trend toward rises and we could be sure that there’d be several interest rate rises this year because inflation was trending upwards and that they weren’t concerned that this was a direct contradiction from what they’d said last year.
Whatever, I think that humans like trends because it gives them confidence in the future and makes us believe that it’s all under control and not just a series of unrelated events that nobody has can predict.
If the next set of numbers – whether it’s a jump to the Coalition after Ley is dumped this week or a drop in inflation – is different from what we’re thinking today, then there will be people telling us that this is, of course, to be expected and everything is clear from here on.
“Of course, One Nation weren’t going to keep their numbers that high! Once the Liberals changed leaders, it was inevitable that they’d improve.”
“Of course, changing leaders wasn’t going to help. It just shows how divided the Liberals are!”
“Of course, inflation moderated because so many of the price jumps were one-off events.”
“Of course, inflation is out of control because jobs are surging, there’s too much government spending and immigration is putting pressure on everything.”
“Of course, Jacinta was going to join One Nation when she didn’t get what she wanted.”
Yep, it’s all so predictable!
I’d rather wrestle a crocodile than vote for One Nation.
Oh Rossleigh, your article correctly demonstrates the misinformation spread by scribblers in the Mainstream Media Manipulation Monopoly to totally confuse the readers with very slack ill-informed description of what is actually happening.
Putting on my statistician hat, a trend requires at least three (3) data points to form a (regression) line that is more than a simple straight line, the shortest distance between any two points. The slope of ”’the line” is generally recognised as positive when sloping up left to right, and negative when sloping down left to right.
However, these mathematical conventions are easily reversed by political scribblers needing to advise readers that all those down slopes are falls in voter confidence responding to the excellent economic repair work being successfully completed by the Albo the Slow LABOR government.
So naturally, all those up slopes do not reflect the growing leadership chaos among the self-serving LIARBRAL$ and NOtional$, (or is it ”the COALition” today?)
I expect we will have to wait until Anus Failure has his strings pulled by the unelected political hacks who control pre-selection & ministerial appointments to find out.
Those up slopes certainly do not reflect the increasing despair among LIARBRAL$ back benchers who only held on to their sinecures by their breaking finger nails, so any miniscule downward movement in overnight popularity confirms the fear that they will be pushed off the Parliamentary gravy train in the immediate political future.
But playing Devil’s Advocate for a moment ….. What do you do with a group of politicians having less leadership skills than a new class of kindergarten kids on their first day??
Sensible voters will mark the on-going ”COALition” chaos, the absence on any sensible alternative and the excellent depth of leadership candidates among the LABOR ranks, and demand the position of Opposition Leader be given to Bill Hayden’s ”’dead drover’s dog” ….. which would certainly be more competent than the present COALition.
Now when will these pollsters start to examine the political popularity of the Only Nutters leader in the background, James Ashby, waiting to step up when Pourlean retires for indeterminate age.
Ain’t it wonderful what political leverage you can buy when the mainstream media have an inherent bias in support of any policy that appeal to their White Supremacist self-image ….. perhaps that is why I read AIMN to get objective analysis of the political lies.
@ Michael Taylor: You do not have to go to those extremes to demonstrate your disgust with the the rabble claiming to be the Opposition because you run AIMN where we get objective analysis of those clown-like antics.
New England Cocky
I am still amazed that the good folk of New England are not out in the streets demanding that Barnaby Joyce resign his position as their elected member in the federal parliament (where they put him when he was representing the National Party).
Now we see that Barnaby is getting around the pubs and RSL clubs spruiking for Pauline Hanson when he is receiving a salary and expenses
for his day job which is to represent the people of New England on behalf of the coalition.
And, as a final insult, Barnaby says he won’t stand again in the seat of New England but will seek a senate seat for One Nation where , if successful, he will join his senate cronies in disrupting and frustrating the business of government.
Bizarre!
Misinformation indeed, it’s copious to say the least….
https://michaelwest.com.au/fois-gas-cartel-conned-government-fixed-high-energy-prices/
https://michaelwest.com.au/japanese-gas-giants-canberra-lobbying-record-exposed/
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/trump-and-abbott-way-out-of-step-with-voters/?
You point and I’ll whistle as to who will be profiting from this mess, again….
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/housing-on-floodplains-more-madness-in-the-hawkesbury/?