By Dr Strobe Driver
“Up shit creek in a barbed-wire canoe, without a paddle”: The implausible direction Australia’s current Defence Minister is taking the country.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the above mentioned expression it means things are about as bad as they can get; likely to get worse; and are as it stands, a continuum of a disaster.
This is where Australia stands at the moment when examining Australia’s role in the Asia-Pacific; the rise of China; the ‘position’ this is placing Australia in terms of it being a ‘middle power’ in the region; the dependence on the United States of America (US) as an ally; and the way in which the current Defence Minister (the Honourable Richard Marles (MP) is approaching the current and future components of the regional strategic situations.
The spat between former prime minister Keating and the current Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Marles is ongoing and is far too detailed to go into here other than to mention Keating believes Marles has essentially ‘ceded Australia’s sovereignty’ to another country (the US); and Marles wants ‘strategic transparency from China in its regional military build-up’ and of course the well-worn argument that Australia will be dragged into a war should the US-China situation become ‘kinetic’ – in other words the fighting becomes real. So, with this in mind let’s ‘cut to the chase’ and figure out how Australia would actually ‘fair’ in the outbreak of a war with China and utilise some rationale.
First and foremost, and as I have previously stated in my book The Brink of 2036, the US having sought and gained assurance that Australia is its ‘closest ally’ decides it will ‘go after’ China over its retrocession claims on Taiwan and a war breaks out – the question that begs is, what does that make Australia? This makes Australia an enemy of China and therefore, the Chinese military is now legally entitled to strike Australia.
China would veto any and all conversation in the UNSC (as it is a Permanent Five (P5) member) and use all of its legal powers to circumvent any and all United Nations’ debate about its use of force against US allies. Secondly, the US will not place any of its assets at risk in order to defend Australia, this should be fundamentally and clearly understood by the people of Australia. The US may come to Australia’s aid – it will utilise discretion – however, should it be deemed necessary, it will only enter into any and all aspects associated with the protection of Australia when its assets are not at a high risk of destruction/incapacitation. Where does this leave Australia? One could safely argue a dyad: alone, unless the US’ intervenes.
For the purpose of this essay war has been declared and therefore, a perspective is needed.
The most telling perspective is that Australia faces a rising power and bearing in mind China has continued its rise exponentially since circa-2010, as before that one could safely argue its rise was only incremental, and thus, it is now a major regional power – soon to become a global one. Hence, Australia will have become the enemy of an enormously powerful country.
What then, would said country do to its middle-power regional enemy? There are no surprises here as it is being played out by Israel in the Gaza strip; and the Russian Federation in Ukraine and moreover, it is exceedingly visible; and easy-to-understand. As a side issue, though an important one, and just to strike further terror into the hearts of Australians, the US and Russia as members of the P5 have shut down through the power of veto any and all conversation about whether Israel’s incursion into Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not warranted. One need not even bother to assume what pathway China will take in its war/fight with Australia. With this in mind let’s move towards China’s kinetic tactics on Australia.
As with any war the first things that need to be destroyed are ‘bases and bridges.’ Bases because they house personnel and vital equipment and bridges which essentially refer to anything (not just bridges over a waterway) that equipment can be transported from in order to get ‘to’ a place/location. China with its significant and enormous amount of missiles and the ability to place them through assets (submarines in particular), will fire hundreds of them into Australian assets – some for advantage and some for ‘publicity,’ that is to say, ‘here’s what we can do.’ The former will be RAAF bases, RAN and RAA bases with a single focus on maintenance and repair facilities; and the latter will be major railway lines (the Ghan; Indo-Pacific; and north east coast public lines); and then major highways the Bruce Highway in particular, will be targeted as will the Darwin-Adelaide highway.
This has to be the case in order to stop the transportation of equipment north – what is referred to as ‘rolling stock’ such as tanks, trucks, munition supplies etc. The latter will be the Sydney Harbour Bridge the harbour itself and the Opera House; both major airports in New South Wales; Darwin Harbour; Darwin airport; Broome; any and all military and any infrastructure north of the ‘Brisbane Line.’ Canberra of course, and all of the critical government infrastructure will also be targeted. This is what Australians will face should we side with the US and become a target. This colloquially and in military terms is referred to as, the ‘punishment phase’ of operations (see: reference below).
Going to war with China will be an unequivocal disaster for Australia as we have no ‘iron dome’ and perhaps more importantly, will not and cannot replace or repair assets that will have been overwhelmingly destroyed in the initial phases of the declaration of war. Thus, we will be at the mercy of a rising power and essentially, at the mercy of an ally. China knows this and so does the US. Australia will be in turmoil due to it being completely overwhelmed by what has happened; the inability to respond effectively and efficiently with any remaining assets (and there will be very few); the enforced migration of people from the north of Australia to the south; and being driven further into the maelstrom of US’ foreign policy needs.
The Honourable Defence Minister should cease and desist with his current monologue and political ineptness toward China and should be upfront with the Australian people in what will happen, should we go down this ‘rabbit hole’ of exceptionalism in the region; and yet, willingly yet aimlessly back the US. Australia will become a failed state if we go to war and it is timely to remind the Australian public there are (approximately) as many personnel in the NYPD as there are personnel in the Australian Defence Force.
Perhaps the Honourable Minister should also be and remain quiet – or better still be removed from his portfolio – because he is doing nothing for the Labor cause; and seems to be actively attempting to reduce Labor’s chance at a second term. He should unequivocally realise that if Australia goes to war the Liberal mantra will become, ‘this is on you Labor, you dragged us into this war and it is up to the LNP to get us out.’
The level of political-ineptness and downright political-maladroitness shown by this minister is however nothing new, as Australia seems to have had a cavalcade of utterly hopeless defence ministers over the past three decades. The real problem this time is this one is politically stupid-to-the-core when Australians need astute, articulate and well-defined decision-making.
Meanwhile, China continues to plan its ongoing rise to ‘pax-Sino’ and we have someone at the helm who is plainly and insufferably politically incompetent when there is a dire need to truly understand the milieu of Australia’s defence needs.
* * * * *
‘Punishment phase’ explained: The punishment phase of aerial bombardment is designed to ‘inflict enough pain on enemy civilians to overwhelm their territorial interests’ and in doing so induce surrender, or hasten total defeat. See: Robert Pape. Bombing To Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. New York: Cornell University Press, 1996, 59.
Dr Strobe Driver – Strobe completed his PhD in war studies in 2011 and since then has written extensively on war, terrorism, Asia-Pacific security, the ‘rise of China,’ and issues within Australian domestic politics. Strobe is a recipient of Taiwan Fellowship 2018, MOFA, Taiwan, ROC, and is an adjunct researcher at Federation University.
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What is it with these testosterone-fuelled fuckwits that they insist on confrontation and aggression? Sit down, Marles; remember just how vulnerable we are – not just militarily, but economically. China has no beef with us and there’s no need to create one.
MARLES IS A SERIOUS RISK TO AUSTRALIA’S SOVEREIGNTY AND SURVIVAL – BE THE PEACE MAKER, VOICE OF REASON NOT A RATTLE, PRIZE OR TARGET – LET TRUMP FIGHT HIS OWN BATTLES ALONE. TIME TO DETACH OURSELVES FROM USA
Australia is no threat to China unless we make it so.
Richard Marles is as seriously misled and delusional as Morrison and Dutton, and extremely dangerous because of his blind reasonability and populist if not wishful, fantasical believability. Marles must cease his tail rattling ego and poking his gum flaked fingers at China. Marles must stop aligning with the USA and waiving, compromising Australia’s independence, neutrality and sovereignty. The USA has no interest in mutual alliance, defence or friendship with Australia other than for its own strategic, military and trade interests, and will ditch Australia in an instant if smarted and overwhelmed by China.
China will walk into Australia if it has to or wants to and lay waste all its spartan military, economic and strategic assets in weeks like a walk in the park, making Russia on Ukraine look like a miserable sloppy tit for tat incompetent incursion, at least on Russia’s part. Australians will lose access to internet and communications overseas over night. Even Australia’s national broadcasting capacity will be silenced, we only have to look at Israel on Iran to see how easy it was to take out their national broadcaster, and those cables out at sea are not the only bridges easily cut.
We only have to look at the USA’s duality and impudence on Ukraine and disregard for Europe under both Trump and Biden have diminished any credibility of expectant allegiance and support in defence of a friendly nation, if Australia became a target. Make no mistake, China will not commence an assault directly on USA, it will start on Australia in-our-region.
Marles needs to shut up or go. Preferably the latter. We need to adopt a more neutral, defensive and friendly constructive allegiance with China – pose no threat, make no threat, otherwise the future in our region and for our country is both desperate and bleak. There is no place in war for a lone lower-middle power in a solitary region as large as the Southeast Asia Pacific, cut off from the rest of the world. Labor must not take us down this path. Our best interests strategically are served as a voice of reason and humanity, not making ourselves a target, a piece of real estate for the US and China to quarrel over as a vassal, utility or prize… and that is exactly what they will do as the world’s two indisputable military, nuclear and economic superpowers. Australia is no threat to China and need not be unless we make it so, and why would we do that?
The USA will simply walk away from the deal when it is no longer viable or serve their interests. The USA doesn’t even treat us in a friendly or respectful way now – we are just dollars, minerals and bases for their consumption, for America first. We must distance ourselves from MAGA USA if we are to have a future at all, or indeed for humanity. We must not follow a demented delusional madman hellbent on WW3 that even the US has no capacity or stomach to discipline or contain. Europe understands this, the rest of the world knows this, why don’t we?
Spot on Dr.Strobe. Empty vessels make …. Richard Marles a very dangerous foreign representative. I seriously cannot think of a portfolio he could not screw up.
I agree with all here. Plus, Marles is a Zionist. What a mess you’ve got us into, Albo.
Within the limits of Ministerial responsibility, Richard Marles has the authority to manage that which is necessary to maintain a defence of Australia’s sovereign territory. He does not have a mandate to follow the mis-guided foreign affairs policies of another nation, in particular, where such policies compel Australians to participate in a war that is neither of our choosing nor benefit. Is he too old to have learned nothing from Australia’s tragic involovement in Viet Nam?