Introduction
The 2025 federal election has rewritten Australia’s political script, with the Albanese government securing a resounding mandate – though perhaps more a rejection of Peter Dutton’s prime ministerial bid than a full embrace of Labor’s vision. The Coalition suffered a crushing defeat, the Greens lost ground, and independents held steady, marking a year that redefined the nation’s political landscape.
2025 and beyond
The dust has settled on the federal election, and the landscape is unmistakably reshaped. Albanese’s Labor government has emerged with a resounding victory, securing an increased majority that hands him a mandate few could have predicted. With projections suggesting Labor could hold 91 seats, the party has defied the “incumbency curse” that has felled so many second-term leaders, making Albanese the first prime minister since John Howard in 2004 to win back-to-back elections. Yet, beneath the triumphant headlines, the real story might not be a ringing endorsement of Albanese’s agenda but a “collective sigh of relief” at keeping Peter Dutton and his Coalition at bay. As we look to 2025 and beyond, the political terrain promises both opportunity and uncertainty.
Labor’s landslide – driven by swings across Queensland, New South Wales, Tasmania, and South Australia – reflects a nation craving stability amid global turbulence. The cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, and healthcare dominated the campaign, with Albanese’s promise of Medicare enhancements and student debt relief resonating with voters. But the shadow of Donald Trump loomed large, with Dutton’s “Trumpian” rhetoric – nuclear power plans, immigration crackdowns, and culture war jabs – alienating moderates. His loss of the marginal seat of Dickson to Labor’s Ali France, after 24 years, symbolises the Coalition’s collapse, their vote plummeting to historic lows. Was this a mandate for Albanese, or a rejection of Dutton’s divisive style? The latter seems plausible, given Labor’s pre-campaign polling struggles and the tepid enthusiasm for its policies. Voters may have opted for the devil they know over the one they feared.
The Coalition’s hammering – potentially dropping to 40 seats – signals a party in crisis. Dutton’s concession speech, accepting full responsibility, hinted at internal reckoning, with Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley eyed as leadership contenders. The Liberals’ drift from Robert Menzies’ centrist roots, embracing hard-right stances, alienated urban moderates, while the Nationals held firmer in regional areas. The nuclear policy, slammed as impractical by industry and voters alike, became a millstone, and the party’s late campaign stumbles – like dumping the work-from-home policy – underscored poor strategy. Rebuilding will require a return to core values or a risky pivot further right, a gamble that could entrench their opposition status for years.
The Greens’ poor showing – losing Brisbane, Griffith, and Adam Bandt’s Melbourne seat to Labor – marks a setback for the progressive left. Their national vote was firm, but preference flows and Labor’s campaign linking Dutton to Trump siphoned support. Max Chandler-Mather’s defeat, despite his housing advocacy, suggests voters prioritised stability over radical change. The Greens may need to refine their message to regain traction, especially as climate action remains a pressing issue. Their diminished presence could weaken Labor’s left flank, pushing Albanese toward the center.
Independents, particularly the Teal cohort, reasonably held firm, with Zali Steggall, Allegra Spender, and Kate Chaney retaining seats. New challengers such as Nicolette Boele in Bradfield show the crossbench’s growing influence, potentially reaching 14 seats. This bloc, often progressive, could pressure Labor on climate and integrity, though their fragmented nature limits cohesion. Their success reflects a public hunger for local voices over party machines, a trend likely to persist.
Looking beyond 2025, Albanese faces a tightrope. His mandate – bolstered by international praise from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukraine President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy – offers room to push housing, healthcare, and renewables. Yet, with inflation easing but prices still high, delivering tangible relief will be critical. A hung Senate, with minor parties such as One Nation could stall legislation, forcing negotiation. The global economy, rattled by Trump’s tariffs, demands deft diplomacy, and Albanese’s focus on Australian values may test U.S. relations.
For the Coalition, the road back is steep. A leadership shuffle won’t erase the need for policy renewal – nuclear aside, their platform lacked depth. Internal divisions between moderates and conservatives risk paralysis, and without recapturing Teal seats, a 2028 comeback looks distant. The Nationals, relatively unscathed, may assert more influence, but their rural focus won’t sway urban swing voters.
The independents and Greens, though weakened, signal a fragmented electorate, challenging the two-party dominance. As climate, cost-of-living, and social equity dominate, 2025 and beyond will test whether Albanese can capitalise on his win or if voter fatigue sets in. Dutton’s exit might clear space for a fresher Coalition face, but the bigger question is whether Australia’s political system can adapt to this new, divided reality. For now, Albanese holds the reins – but the ride ahead is anything but smooth. That’s the one constant in politics.
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Canavan has now announced that he will challenge Littleproud for leadership of the National Party and I daresay that Matt has done the numbers so it’s likely to be ‘hasta la vista’ for Littleprod and his unremarkable leadership.
Incidentally, I note that Keir Starmer has quietly given Trump an off ramp for his silly tariffs and it seems that they have mutually agreed terms of trade that make sense for both countries and Starmer did not need to kiss ass.