How Labor can win

Disclaimer: I want to see Labor returned after the forthcoming election. If it is a minority Labor government, I’ll take it. I’ll be voting Labor. Any criticism of them in this article, in my opinion, is warranted.

Winning the election, due by May 17, is a complex challenge under Anthony Albanese. The political landscape is tight, with polls showing a close race against the Coalition, and a growing crossbench of Greens, independents and minor parties. Here’s what Labor needs to do to secure victory:

First, Labor must sharpen its economic message. Cost-of-living pressures are dominating voter concerns right now – think rising rents, grocery bills, and mortgage stress. The government’s already taken steps like tweaking the Stage 3 tax cuts to favour middle- and lower-income earners and rolling out energy bill relief, but they need to make sure people feel the difference. Treasurer Jim Chalmers could frame the recent interest rate cut as a win from Labor’s fiscal discipline – stabilising debt $200 billion below the Coalition’s trajectory. The pitch could be: “We’ve tamed inflation (currently 2.4%, down from 2.8%) and boosted wages (up 3.25% annually), so stick with us to keep the gains coming.” Hammering this home through clear, relatable messaging – ads showing families keeping more cash – could sway the financially squeezed.

Second, they’ve got to neutralise the Coalition’s attack lines. Dutton’s likely to push a “better off than three years ago” narrative, pointing to lingering economic grumbles. Labor can counter by flipping the script: “The mess we inherited from Morrison – skyrocketing inflation, stagnant wages – is finally under control. Dutton offers vibes, not solutions.” Highlighting Coalition weaknesses, like their divisive nuclear power push (which polls show lacks broad support), could keep undecideds from drifting right. Labor’s renewable energy focus – tied to jobs and lower bills – plays better if they sell it loud and proud.

Third, Labor needs to lock in its base while winning back outer-suburban and regional voters. Places like western Sydney, outer Melbourne, and Queensland’s marginals (e.g., Longman, Leichhardt) are slipping, with cost-of-living woes and frustration over state Labor governments bleeding into federal sentiment. Door-knocking these areas with hyper-local promises – think infrastructure cash or health clinic upgrades – could shore up support. Meanwhile, they can’t ignore the Greens threat in inner-city seats such as Wills and Macnamara. A bold but pragmatic climate move (say, accelerating renewable projects) might stop progressive bleed without alienating moderates.

Fourth, the crossbench is key. With 150 seats up for grabs, 76 is the magic number for a majority. Labor’s at 78 now but faces losses in Victoria (Aston’s a goner) and gains from new boundaries (Bullwinkel in WA). If they fall short, they’ll need Greens or teal independents to govern. Building quiet bridges now – signaling flexibility on housing policy or transparency laws – could secure post-election deals without spooking their base during the campaign.

Finally, Albanese himself needs a vibe shift. His approvals have softened since 2022, and he’s got to project energy and competence. High-visibility tours in battleground states – Queensland, WA, Tasmania – showing him fixing problems (e.g., announcing flood/fire/storm relief or small business grants) could rebuild trust. Dutton’s a scrappy campaigner, so Labor can’t coast on “we’re not them.”

Risks? A misstep on culture war traps (Dutton’s always itching to pounce on identity issues) could alienate moderates. And if the Teals or Greens surge, Labor might win the most seats but lose the government. Still, with tight polls (think 50-50 two-party preferred), it’s winnable. Focus on wallets, neutralise Dutton, and hustle in the margins – that’s the playbook needed.

 

References

Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin, by John Black, Australian Financial Review

Labor sitting pretty to win 2025 Election, Stephen Koukoulas, Independent Australia

Odds for 2024 point to another close Labor win in 2025, John Black, Australian Financial Review

Labor likely to win WA election, but the campaign is exposing faultlines in the state’s politics, Miragliotta et al, The Conversation

FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum, Antony Green, Antony Green’s Election Blog

Consumer Price Index, Australia, ABS

The seats that will determine if Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton is the next prime minister, Brett Worthington, ABC

Who will win the 2025 federal election and why, Michael Taylor, The Australian Independent Media Network

Despite a dire poll result, Labor isn’t panicking – it’s all still to play for in 2025, Paul Karp, The Guardian

Both sides have a chance of forming minority government, John Black, Australian Financial Review

“Stitch up” Labor and Coalition Deal on Electoral Reform, The Australia Institute

Labor strategies for the 2022 Election, John Quiggin, Independent Australia

#9 IA STORY OF 2024: Labor looks likely to win 2025 Election, Stephen Koukoulas, Independent Australia

 

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