Donald Trump’s victory in November was celebrated by a number of politicians, media and a certain section of the Australian public. But what was there to celebrate? Trump’s policies could have several significant impacts on Australia across various domains. All of which are adverse. All of which nearly every Australians will feel, directly or indirectly. Here’s why there was no cause to celebrate:
Economic Impact
Trade Tariffs: Trump has proposed implementing high tariffs, notably a 10-20% tariff on all imports into the U.S. and a 60% tariff on goods from China. This could lead to disruptions in global trade, adversely affecting Australia, especially given its heavy reliance on trade, particularly with China. The Australian economy might see a reduction in growth and an increase in prices due to these tariffs, with potential knock-on effects on commodity prices which are vital for Australia’s export market.
Inflation and Interest Rates: There’s a prediction that Trump’s economic policies, which include expansive fiscal measures and potential trade wars, could keep global interest rates higher. This scenario would likely push Australian interest rates up, affecting borrowing costs and potentially leading to higher inflation.
Foreign Policy and Security
AUKUS Alliance: Trump’s skepticism towards alliances might put Australia in a difficult position regarding the AUKUS security pact. While some argue Trump would support AUKUS for the economic benefits to the U.S., others are concerned about his unpredictability and preference for bilateral deals over multilateral ones. This could lead to a reevaluation of Australia’s strategic posture in the region. (Admittedly, most Australians would like to see the back of AUKUS, so the reaction to this will be somewhat mixed.)
Relations with China: Trump’s confrontational stance with China, including his tariff plans, could indirectly impact Australia, which has significant economic ties with China. A trade war might force Australia to navigate a complex diplomatic scenario, balancing its economic interests with its security alliances.
Climate Policy
Climate Change: Trump’s climate skepticism and plans to undo environmental regulations, including withdrawing from international climate agreements, could have a domino effect. Australia might face increased pressure to act independently on climate issues, or conversely, see a slowdown in global climate action, influencing local environmental policies and possibly leading to more severe climate impacts in Australia.
Social and Political
Migration and Domestic Politics: Trump’s policies on immigration might not directly affect Australia but could influence domestic political discourse, particularly around immigration and multiculturalism, given the global political climate. His influence might embolden similar political movements in Australia.
Public Opinion and Political Strategy: There’s a mixed reaction in Australia to Trump’s policies. Some see opportunities in his economic approach, such as tax cuts, while others are wary of the broader implications for global stability and Australia’s economic health. The Australian government might need to recalibrate its strategies in response to these shifts.
In summary, Trump’s policies could create a volatile environment for Australia, with potential negative economic repercussions due to trade policies, challenges in foreign policy due to shifting U.S. priorities, and a complex landscape for environmental policies. Australia would likely need to engage in significant diplomatic and strategic manoeuvring to mitigate these impacts.
See also:
Assessing the potential impact of a second Donald Trump presidency
Trump withdraws US from the World Health Organization
Donald Trump’s tariffs: a world of hurt
Trade wars: Will a China-America trade war see Australia caught in the middle?
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There is nothing positive about having Trump in the Whitehouse.
He’s the product of disaffection, he has no political philosophy, his motivation is limited to self agrandissement.
An unpredictable narcissist, and his very narrow election win is due to Biden’s decision to hold on until Harris was democratic nominee by default.
The human manifestation of a huge, unsafe, incontinent pig’s arse, Donald Fee-Sees is easily the worst ever such office holder, being as stupid as confusion and panic, cunning as a rodent from the brick outhouse, sickly narcissistic but without evidence of charm or talent.., a pile of malodorous mucky merdey manurey mess. He is a world threat, and may try any deal, dream, delusion, to inflate and re-inflate yet again. He has gathered around him a team of tosser turds, terrible feral profiteering plantation boss types of unlimited greed and ambition, who must be noticed and on the podium. Adolf and Josef were rotten, deadly, evil beyond acceptance, but this abscessy ape has four years more of obsessing about himself, filling out his heaven….a POX.
Try tellling me that Americans got it wrong.
No way, Trump is the choice of a nation with all their freedoms and democracy.They are proud of the old criminal, recycled, and the best they can present to the rest of the wor
ld.
Waving their flags,their guns, and their bibles they demonstrate their patriotic standards.
Meanwhile this country demonstrates just how slow we are, and behind the times.
Handcuffing Australians to a nation which is turning its back on international law, climate change, health, and simply doing what is best for THEM.
This is not going to turn out well.
Essentially agree Douglas.
The late Malcolm Fraser spoke of the danger of allowing the US/Aust alliance to become something way more than was originally intended, and he foresaw Aust becoming an armed camp for the US. Then, not so long ago, we had PM Turnbull claiming that we were “joined at the hip” with the US.
There’s no room for Aust to move – except at the end of a chain.
How the hell can that turn out well, especially now with Trump 2 and what may come after?
Um, er, (checks calendar to see if it’s the 1st of April) it’s hard to think of anything to say about this:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5103052-mississippi-contraception-abortion-masturbation/
GL, I’m guessing that law will be broken a million times a day.
Indeed the law will be usurped by executive order a million times a day. There will be court cases, but with SCOTUS gerrymandered, ordinary folk of the US only have left anarchy and armed revolution – something throughout their history they are well familiar with.
Given he disdains everybody except his tribal sycophants (even them), with his mooted assaults on China, Canada, Mexico, Panama and Denmark, perhaps all we have to rely on is a patient 4 year mollycoddling by the inscrutable Xi, backed by the ever growing BRICS+ affiliates.
Trump excels at driving things to bankruptcy, but a crumbling desertified USA driven to utter bankruptcy would be a disaster for us all.
Spot on, Clakka.
Some further thoughts and processes on dealing with the current assaults on information and our individual and collective psyches:
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/how-to-resist-the-tech-overlords …beautiful.
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/disinformation-in-2024-was-rife,-and-its-likely-to-bring-more-risks-in-2025 … thank goodness there’s a fightback
Clakka: “Trump excels at driving things to bankruptcy, but a crumbling desertified USA driven to utter bankruptcy would be a disaster for us all.”
(a) bankruptcy can’t happen
(b) a much diminished USA will help the world at large. Ask most of them. Their hegemonistic US foreign policies have impoverished and killed many.
I tried to donate but was somehow forced to use Paypal. I refuse to use Paypal any more after the various mafia members have revealed their libertarian leanings. Sorry.
Thanks, totaram. I appreciate that.
That’s why we have provided bank details for The AIMN, which a lot of people use instead of PayPal or credit card.
Thanks, totaram. I appreciate that.
That’s why we have provided bank details for The AIMN, which a lot of people use instead of PayPal or credit card.