Continued from Part 1
In Part 2, I explore hypothetical scenarios, so think of this article as a mix of personal opinions and potential outcomes.
Australia’s Potential Response
Australia is in a tricky spot with this Greenland scenario. The Albanese government has been all about strengthening ties with the U.S., but they’re also big on multilateralism and playing nice with allies like Denmark. If Trump and Vance pushed for a forced takeover, Albanese would likely lean on diplomacy – think statements condemning unilateral moves, rallying NATO cohesion, and maybe even some quiet chats with Denmark to offer support. He’s already been engaging with Trump on tariffs so he’d probably try that channel again to de-escalate. Labor’s line would be about stability and respecting sovereignty – Greenland’s and Denmark’s – while keeping the U.S. alliance intact. I doubt Trump would listen though. Might be a wasted call.
Peter Dutton is a different beast. He’s pro-Trump, no question. If he wins in May, he is less likely to criticise Trump outright – might even frame a Greenland grab as a bold security play against Russia and China. But he’d still have to balance that with Australia’s NATO ties and public opinion, which isn’t keen on overseas adventures. His Budget Reply dodged big foreign policy details, focusing on domestic stuff such as migration cuts, so he might play it cagey unless forced to pick a side.
The election’s a wildcard. Polls are tight – YouGov’s March 29, 2025, data shows Labor slightly ahead, but Dutton’s Coalition could still snag it. Whoever is in power by mid-2025 would shape the response. Labor is more likely to push back diplomatically; Dutton might hedge or quietly back Trump if it suits his “strong Australia” narrative.
Escalation Risks
If the U.S. went full-on forceful with Greenland, Australia’s response could nudge the escalation dial. Labor’s vocal disapproval might annoy Trump, risking trade spats – those new tariffs he’s planning for April 2 (what he calls “Liberation Day”) could hit Australia harder if Albanese gets too loud. Dutton, if PM, might avoid that but could get dragged in if Russia or China escalate – say, by ramping up Arctic presence. Australia’s got skin in the game with AUKUS and its Indo-Pacific focus; any Arctic flare-up could pull in resources or force a stance. Social media posts on X show some Aussies already fretting about Trump’s “whims” dragging allies into messes – sentiment could pressure either leader.
Big conflict? Australia’s not starting wars over Greenland, but it could get tangled in a diplomatic or economic slugfest if the U.S. presses ahead and others push back. May’s election will set the tone.
Dutton’s pro-Trump stance could steer Australia into some choppy waters if he wins in May. He would likely prioritise keeping the U.S. alliance rock-solid, even if it means swallowing hard on something like a Greenland move. Picture him downplaying any forced takeover as “strategic necessity” to counter China or Russia, maybe even pitching it as a win for AUKUS – more bases, more reach. He’s already tight with figures like Gina Rinehart, who’d likely cheer a pro-U.S., pro-resource tilt, so he might lean into that vibe.
But it is not all smooth sailing. If Trump’s recklessness – say, tariffs or Greenland – starts hitting Australia’s economy – Dutton could face heat at home. Voters might not love cozying up to a guy who is rattling global cages, especially if it drags Australia into a diplomatic mess with Denmark or a trade war with China. His “tough guy” schtick could backfire if it looks like he is just tagging along with Trump’s wild ride.
Worst case? He doubles down, ties Australia closer to Trump’s orbit, and we’re stuck picking sides in a fracturing NATO or an Arctic standoff. Best case, he plays it pragmatic – talks big but keeps options open. Either way, it is a shift from Labor’s cautious balancing act. I feel we’re on the dread; it is like watching a storm brew and hoping the roof holds.
Getting tangled up militarily would be a gut punch, especially for Australia as we’re already juggling a lot. If Dutton wins and Trump pushes a Greenland takeover by force, the odds of Australia sending troops are slim but not zero. Here’s why that’s a legit worry and how it might play out:
Dutton is all about projecting strength – his budget reply hammered on beefing up defence spending and leaning into AUKUS. If Trump framed a Greenland move as a NATO-adjacent security play and called on allies, Dutton might feel pressured to chip in, even just symbolically – think a frigate or some ADF personnel to “support stability.” He is pro-U.S. enough that saying no could bruise his cred with Trump, especially if Vance is whispering about “loyal partners” during their next AUKUS huddle.
But it is not a straight line to boots on the ground. Australia’s military is stretched and Greenland is a logistical nightmare, 15,000 kilometres away with no real staging point. Public appetite is low too; social media chatter from Aussies shows more “not our circus” vibes than gung-ho support for far-off fights. Dutton would risk a backlash if he jumped in too deep, especially with Labor ready to pounce on any “Trump’s lapdog” optics.
The real kicker would be escalation. If Russia or China turned an Arctic spat into a broader conflict – say, naval clashes or base buildups – Australia could get sucked in via AUKUS or U.S. treaty obligations. Odds of that? Not for a hot war, but a military commitment could creep up the odds under Dutton if Trump leans hard and frames it as “allies or nothing.” Labor would be more likely to dodge, sticking to words over weapons.
Military involvement would be a hell of a line to cross. It would be less about winning Greenland and more about being stuck in someone else’s mess.
Fingers crossed it stays hypothetical.
References
UK and Australia set to elevate defence relationship to NATO level with new ‘status of forces’ agreement, Andrew Greene, ABC News
Budget in Reply, the Liberal Party
Australia can’t easily lift defence spending to a Trump-satisfying level, David Uren, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Labor one seat short of a majority in YouGov’s second MRP of the 2025 Australian election, YouGov
Liberation Day, or Self-Aggrandisement Day?, Michael Taylor, The AIMN
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Trump is clearly borderline insane. Even hinting at contemplating a move on Greenland let alone an aggressive one is surely wacko-land thinking. Even the remotest possibility that Australia would support, or worse, be even vaguely militarily involved in such an adventure should be enough to give us all pause for thought. Even though this scenario seems unlikely to eventuate it’s another reason for the precautionary put the LNP last.
Speculatively, I think what ought to be at stake is the Orange Antichrist, stripped, spread-eagled like the original Redeemer, a pile of hickory faggots at the base and a flickering flame on hand to ignite the pyre.
The world will cheer as the demon toasts.
Trump’s INSANE desire to invade and take over the independent, Danish protectorate, Greenland, is not only completely ILLEGAL, it is likely to quickly deteriorate into yet ANOTHER American-led world conflict! This crazy, irrational way of thinking PROVES that Trump has absolutely ZERO discernment, no foresight and a level of sociopathic entitlement that is causing just about every nation outside of America REAL and justifiable concern! Add to that, Trump’s lunatic comment or “sick, twisted joke” about making Canada the 51st State SHOULD have been enough to cause concerned American politicians to lock up that rambling intellectual midget into a padded cell on Guantanamo Bay instead of keeping Trump in power with his insane, irrational finger poised over the Doomsday Button! My God! What will it take to remove him?
Is it at all possible that Trump and Dutton supporters could be any more idiotic? Can they be MORE manipulated by the biased right-wing Murdoch media? More racist? Even MORE tolerant of the type of relentless, unapologetic misogyny so evident within the sexist predator, Trump and the diabolical alpha white male supremacists in the Abbott/Morrison and Dutton version of the LNP? Could these disreputable neoliberal capitalists in Trump’s Republican movement and the like-minded privatisation-obsessed elitists in the LNP be MORE self-serving, MORE corrupt and MORE condescending? Could these deplorable, callously-inhumane political parasites in the extreme right-wing be MORE cruel? MORE oblivious to the hardships their elitist policies cause ordinary working- and middle-class citizens? Could the RWNJs in the Trump and Dutton regimes be even MORE dangerously undemocratic where they are now entering into the realms of fascism?
The terrifying answer to ALL the above questions is a resounding “YES” – tragically the level of entitlement, corruption, inhumanity, their open favouritism towards their avaricious billionaire supporters in the Top 1% and their manic obsession with obscene wealth and tyrannical power will only deteriorate and get worse the longer these unconscionable political psychopaths in the Trump and LNP regimes are in power! This is WHY it is absolutely ESSENTIAL that Australia NEVER EVER votes for the Trump-supporting grubs in the LNP and insist that Australia ceases all trade with America, shuts down Pine Gap and refuses to allow our citizens to become cannon fodder in any more illegal American invasions or wars! Trump has proven that he doesn’t give a stuff about Australia, Canada or any other of America’s (once) loyal allies! Enough! Let’s show that contemptuous CONVICTED CRIMINAL, Trump, that TWO can play THAT game!
There can be NO DOUBT that catastrophe, chaos and isolation are all waiting at the end of a long, dark tunnel for Trump’s America and the time will come – very soon – that the fools who voted for Trump will RUE THE DAY they put that megalomaniacal lunatic in DUAL power with that arrogant multi-billionaire, the UNELECTED Elon Musk – both of whom will succeed in their efforts to MAKE AMERICA HATE AGAIN and alienate their nation from the rest of the world! The tragedy is that ordinary working- and middle-class people foolish enough to vote for the malevolent, condescending and totally corrupt elitists in the Trump or Dutton regimes can be compared to turkeys voting for Christmas!
Whilst these appalling, extreme right-wing regimes are busy defunding public school education, defunding Medicare or health services, bullying and threatening to invade other independent nations (like Greenland), tearing down vital social welfare programs that assist lifting desperate people out of poverty, openly persecuting migrants and THRIVING on hate, fear, exclusion, division, inherent misogyny and racism, they STILL manage to continue to empower and obscenely enrich the wealthiest people in the country (including themselves, of course) through low taxes, tax incentives and/or tax-funded perks for the rich!
When confronted by these irrational right-wing “turkeys”, just ask them this question:
“Name one thing – One. Single. Thing. – that the LNP (or Trump’s Republican Party) have EVER done – in its entire history – that has provided one single benefit to YOU or ANYONE other than themselves or their billionaire supporters in the Top 1%?” …….
What is the inevitable answer? I promise you, a stunned expression and DEAD SILENCE will ensue!
T-Rump’s absurdist shadow play has now gone deep into a beguiling kabuki. It’s self-delusion has gone from noh, to nobody knows, to a dizzying whirligig of potty-boy nos. With him included, it’s become again in the ‘north & west’ a clash of deranged madmen wielding sticks and turds in a vengeance against existence – they know no other performance.
They will be brought down by the others of the ‘north & west’, in the meantime we ought get on and mind our business in the ‘east’.