Monash University Media Release
The by-election for the Federal seat of Farrer takes place this Saturday, 9 May. It has been a safe Coalition seat for decades – previously held by former Liberal Party leader Sussan Ley – but can they hold onto it? And what are One Nation’s chances of securing the seat, and what will it mean for their overall political success.
Monash experts have their say.
Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, Head of Politics and International Relations, Monash School of Social Sciences says:
“The Liberal and National parties are facing a critical electoral challenge. Having held the seat for decades, the coalition parties are seeking to keep Farrer in their hands. The result will give us an indication of how voters who have traditionally supported the Coalition feel about its current personnel and policy settings.
“Having missed out on winning the by-election in Nepean in Victoria, One Nation will now focus its energies on Farrer. Winning the by-election would have immense strategic value for the party. It would give them a presence in the nation’s lower house, and also a platform to consolidate their position in the political debate. Even if the party doesn’t win the by-election, One Nation will have opportunities to learn and hone its approach in the leadup to the next general election due in 2028.”
Dr Benjamin Moffitt, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Monash School of Social Sciences says that:
“The Farrer by-election offers a glimpse of a potential future for Australian elections: one where the major parties are seen as has-beens, and the match-up is really between One Nation and community independents.
“In this case, the conditions are as good as they might get for One Nation. It’s a by-election, which voters often use to send a clear message. One Nation’s rise in the polls has been sustained and media coverage has followed. The demographics of the seat suit them. And with Labor sitting the by-election out, the brunt of anger at the major parties may likely be targeted towards the Coalition parties – One Nation’s true competition.
“If One Nation can’t win this seat, in these circumstances, you would have to question if their rise can really continue. If they do win, however – then it’s time for the Coalition to start panicking.”
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I’m deeply suspicious of the electorate. They had re-elected Ley for chrissakes. Gina the Hutt’s party are a sham. Always have been. Their candidate will jump ship by the end of the year if he’s elected.
Agreed Ken Chapman! And that’s precisely why l am hoping the One Nation candidate does win. He will continue his pattern of following his own beliefs and ignoring Poorleen and she will get ticked off with his ignoring her decrees. Another one bites the dust.
It’s clear by his actions he is an Independent but lacked the cash to mount a campaign.
He will not last.
At 69 years of age, ”Dave for Dave” Farley would appear ready for a comfortable retirement job sucking on the public teat of the Parliamentary Allowances Scheme, while his about $230,000 salary plus other perks is rolled into his superannuation.
Once Farley is in Parliament the PHONeys are not needed …..Good bye Poorlean.
For far too long the electorate has been seesaw voters, Tweedle Dee this time Tweedle Dum the next. Independents have been frowned on, Greens ridiculed, Democrats never given a chance and Communists virtually banned!!
No need to think, if Tweedle Dee has failed, it’s Tweedle Dum’s turn, year after year, after year. Don’t worry about who is running the country, the real issue, is who is going to be Premiers this year?
Don’t blame politicians for the state of our country, blame the addle headed, whinging electorate.
Wake up Australia.
Interesting that in the above analysis neither of the “experts”, Assoc Prof Zareh Ghazarian nor Dr Benjamin Moffitt mention the prospects of the Independent candidate for Farrer, Ms Michelle Milthorpe. I am prepared to predict that Ms Milthorpe will out-vote all other candidates.
Shallow ‘analysis’ with this.
‘One Nation’s rise in the polls has been sustained and media coverage has followed’
Like Farage and Reform, with Murdoch led media too, their coverage and polls are codependent, to boost far right candidats over centrists.
Definition of an expert?
“That was an old joke I learned as a kid. An “ex” is a has-been. A “spurt” is a drip under pressure. So an “expert” is a has-been drip under pressure.
Everybody’s an expert at something. You will come across readers who know more than you do about things you’re writing. You will also come across people who THINK they know more than you do, but don’t.”
Source https://daringnovelist.blogspot.com/2011/08/expert-has-been-drip-under-pressure.html
What is most revealing in the PHONey managed campaign is that they barred local ABC reporters from an Albury press conference. Newscorp and SKY were welcomed with open arms as they would not ask any probing questions of Hanson or Farley.
Be very careful voters in Farrer, you are being subjected to a masquerade by Hanson and her team and they don’t want any scrutiny : the fact that they don’t actually have any policies may have something to do with it!