By Denis Bright
A federal budget in March 2025 offers yet another chance to broaden the economic information base for both constituents and media commentators. If the Albanese Government is defeated, expect the LNP to consolidate its hold by initially appealing to disadvantaged voters in both regional and outer metro areas until a major crisis erupts in the global economy in the emergent Trump era where America First is the superpower’s key priority.
Distortions of economic trendlines are important facets of political advertising from the LNP’s preferred advertising agencies like Topham Guerin (TG). The electorate welcomes these simplistic assurances which delivered conservative victories in NZ in 2023 and way back in 2019 in the landslide victory of Boris Johnson.
Nuclear power stations are even part of the LNP’s outrageous environmental outreach to weaken support for alternative energy policies for consumption in seven predominantly conservative regional electorates with lingering levels of nostalgia about the closing down of coal or gas fired power stations (ABC News 18 June 2024).
Media discussion brings inordinate attention to the size of the budget deficit and to trendlines in public sector spending. Readers could check the narrow focus of the 7.30 Report’s focus after the release of MYEFO.
Missing from the interviews with Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor is any substantial mention of other economic multipliers in trade and commercial investment which have helped to generate the external shocks associated with economic indicators from the September Quarter 2024. The commentators end up parroting claims that the September Quarters weak GDP data have been generated by government spending and slight deficits.
Although Australia has a free trade agreement with China and a very profitable trading relationship in both commodities and services with China, net investment relationships with China are dwarfed by investment ties with the US, Britain, the EU and Japan. Australia’s overseas investment abroad is also with these countries. This data is well presented by ABS in its latest release on our investment dynamics on 1 May 2024.
Changing Origins of Inward Overseas Investment in Australia
In the absence of more recent updates, KPMG in association with the University of Sydney assists by showing the trendiness in Chinese Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) in the latest public release of data in April 2024. Key graphics in the KPMG monograph are not sharp enough to be copied.
The Labor Movement has nothing to fear from robust debate about the origins of recent economic indicators. More economic modelling about external shocks to our economy would be a real asset in communicating priorities embedded in a March Budget for 2025-26. The Treasurer’s office could assist with a special budget paper on these external accounts to avoid the limitations of the 7.30 Report’s coverage of MYEFO. Writing for the AFR (27 December 2024), Economics editor John Kehoe anticipates a public sector spending outlay of 27.9 percent in the forthcoming March budget. It is an economic miracle that the official unemployment rate is still running at 4 percent of the workforce. A slight increase in public sector spending and investment has helped to maintain this level of employment in a slowing economy.
A renewed globalized world is still possible to bring Australia into emergent land and sea routes across the Indo-Pacific Basin associated with the rise of China as the world’s second largest economy. While Australia is discouraged from increasing investment ties with China, the US fosters both trade and investment with its arch-rival as noted by the US Trade Representative:
U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in China (stock) was $126.1 billion in 2022, a 9.0 percent increase from 2021. U.S. direct investment in China is led by manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance.
China’s FDI in the United States (stock) was $28.7 billion in 2022, down 7.2 percent from 2021. China’s direct investment in the U.S. is led by manufacturing, real estate, and depository institutions.
Australia needs a more independent economic diplomacy to counter these America First Strategies. Our naïve loyalty to directives from the Five Eyes Network is contrary to efforts by US corporations to engage with China and still sell more weapons to Middle Powers like Australia at the same time (Image: Xinhua):
Applying Contradictory Economic Diplomacy from the White House
Rest assured, the LNP with the assistance of its advertising agency in TG will be running a scare campaign to topple the Albanese Government. This misinformation can be controlled with more data about economic realities to inform our political commentators who set the tone of political reporting.
A paper on external factors which are affecting our GDP indicators is an imperative in the March Budget.
Further reading:
This Is Our Moment: A Call to Reclaim Democracy and Secure a Better Future for all Australians
Engineering construction keeps the economy moving
Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.
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Maybe not more data, but better analysis of valid data using testable questions?
Australians including media, politicians and elites have been talking around invalid data points and analysis due to the influence of US fossil fuel thinks and faux demographic NGOs; Atlas-Koch IPA etc. climate science denial and linked Tanton mom’s SusPopAus, TAPRI, MB and RW MSM.
Open denial of global warming &/or carbon emissions vs renwables related don’t work, plus dubious claims of high undefined ‘immigration’ and ‘unsustainable’ population growth.
This is achieved by the same above lobbying MPs, Ministers and Committees and informing media then talking points to voters; made easy by broad data, science and analytical illiteracy for unsubstantiated talking points to be valid*.
*Demographic case in point is a former senior PS in immigration on LinkedIn last week on international education, who presented by media as an immigration and demographic expert, but could not interpret basic old age dependency trends.
The latter is simply the number of people 65+ years/working 20-64 years; 2000 20%, now about 30% and 2050 will be 40%+.
Interpretation? Australia, due to better health and longevity, has increasing numbers of retirees and/declining working age -> potential tax revenue & budget stress. In fact it’s the former but seldom if ever cited in RW MSM as opposed to glib ‘high immigration’, ‘unsustainable population growth’, suggesting ‘the great replacement’…house prices only go up, too easy..
Simple explanation and presentation can be found here in The Senior; but not a whiff in the RW MSM?
‘ABS data shows Australia is ageing, prompting a workforce, retirement and health wakeup call’
https://www.thesenior.com.au/story/8271715/an-ageing-australia-can-we-handle-it/