By Callen Sorensen Karklis
Despite fierce criticism from conservative media aimed at the Albanese Labor Government since 2022, particularly in the lead-up to the 2025 Federal election, Anthony Albanese secured a landslide victory, marking Labor’s first consecutive election win since Bob Hawke’s re-election in 1987. With over 91 seats, Albanese surpassed Kevin Rudd’s 2007 triumph of 83 seats, joining Labor legends such as Andrew Fisher, John Curtin, Ben Chifley, Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, and Paul Keating in winning back-to-back majorities. Albanese’s nation-building agenda has cemented his place in history, but delivering on promises will be crucial to maintaining Labor’s legacy.
The Greens suffered significant losses, dropping three seats: Max Chandler-Mather in Griffith and Stephen Bates in Brisbane (both after one term) in Queensland, and federal leader Adam Bandt in Melbourne, ending his 15-year tenure since 2010, a pivotal year that led to the Gillard Labor-Greens alliance (2010–2013) with Independents. Despite retaining 11 Senate seats and likely holding one lower house seat in Queensland’s Ryan with Elizabeth Watson-Browne, the Greens couldn’t replicate their 2022 “Greensland” success in inner-city Brisbane. Losses were linked to factors like Lidia Thorpe’s departure over the Voice Referendum, which damaged the Greens’ appeal among First Nations Australians mid-term.
The re-escalation of the Gaza conflict deepened divisions over the Palestinian/Israeli issue, impacting seats like Brisbane’s Moreton, where Remah Naji ran, and triggering a backlash in Victoria’s Melbourne, costing the Greens chances in Cooper and Wills. Despite the Greens and Labor’s left-wing bloc advocating morally on the issue, their approach had limits. The Greens’ combative stance against Labor, coupled with struggles to address cost-of-living and housing debates, hindered gains in seats like Richmond, NSW. Labor effectively co-opted Greens policies and maintained sharper messaging, overshadowing the Greens’ campaign.
The Greens, despite strong policies, must strategically wield their balance of power, selectively cutting deals and fighting with conviction to avoid the fate of the Democrats, whose support collapsed after backing Howard’s GST in 2000. They faced intense opposition from the corporate sector and Advance Australia’s sophisticated advertising.
The Teals saw minimal losses, with Zoe Daniel losing Goldstein to LNP moderate Tim Wilson, but potentially gaining Labor’s Bean in the ACT. Positioned as a less aggressive, diplomatic alternative, the Teals successfully filled the space left by the Greens, appealing as cooperative and safe choices.
The Coalition, once dominant with consecutive election wins for over fifty years, suffered its worst defeat since 1945. This stemmed partly from complacency, leaning heavily on conservative corporate media to push its narrative, especially after the 2023 Voice Referendum’s failure, for which Jacinta Price and Peter Dutton bear significant responsibility. Additional factors in their crushing loss included their inability to address the cost-of-living crisis effectively. In Brisbane and Moreton LGAs, LNP-led initiatives to displace homeless populations for gentrification and Olympics planning, alongside the Queensland LNP government under David Crisafulli, further alienated voters.
The Coalition’s defeat was exacerbated by multiple missteps. In Queensland, Premier David Crisafulli’s policies echoed the austerity of Campbell Newman’s 2012–2015 era, with controversial moves like appointing former Liberal John Sosso as Commissioner of the Queensland Redistribution Commission, raising fears of a return to the manipulative “Bjelkemander” tactics of the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era, as warned by former CCC Chair Tony Fitzgerald. The Coalition’s poorly consulted nuclear power proposal, divisive culture wars led by Peter Dutton, and announced service cuts further alienated voters. Global anxieties over Trump’s presidency and tariffs, which bolstered Canada’s Liberals to a historic fourth term, also hurt the Coalition’s campaign.
The Coalition’s defeat was worsened by their failure to clarify financial costings just four days before the 2025 election, undermining voter trust. Peter Dutton’s decision to attend a Liberal corporate fundraiser during Cyclone Alfred in early 2025, while Anthony Albanese showcased leadership alongside other government levels, drew sharp criticism. These poor optics, coupled with Dutton’s pervasive pessimism, fueled widespread backlash, significantly weakening the Coalition’s campaign and contributing to their historic loss.
Labor’s 2025 mandate includes boosting bulk billing and Medicare, easing cost-of-living pressures, reducing HECS debts, expanding fee-free TAFE, and investing in childcare and housing. The Albanese Government’s first term (2022–2025) faced challenges, notably the failed Voice referendum, which stalled Truth and Treaty negotiations, particularly in Queensland and the Northern Territory, where Liberals gained ground at the state/territory level. Tensions with the Greens over housing policy hindered progress, but Labor’s commanding majority offers a chance to drive transformative change, such as reforming the tax system – potentially targeting negative gearing or capital gains – to address the housing crisis and restore Australia’s “fair go” ethos. Stronger industrial laws to protect workers’ rights and a reimagined Environment Protection Authority (EPA), previously stalled with the Greens, are also priorities, though both require support from the Greens and Teal Independents in the Senate and lower house, who demand robust environmental safeguards.
Labor must navigate these domestic challenges while addressing global uncertainties, including Trump’s presidency, Russia’s aggression in Europe, and China’s growing influence in Asia. Despite criticism, Labor strengthened emissions trading through the safeguard mechanism and established a federal Anti-Corruption Commission with Teal and Green support. The party owes much to the 2010 Faulkner/Bracks/Carr review, which democratised ALP membership, preselection, and leadership processes, bolstering its resilience and adaptability for this ambitious second term.
To rebound after their 2025 losses, the Greens must reassess their direction post-Adam Bandt, whose leadership faltered after losing Melbourne. Bandt’s initially cooperative stance with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese soured over housing disputes, straining relations. The Greens could draw lessons from Labor’s 2010–2022 journey, including the Rudd/Gillard era, its wilderness years, and internal reforms that fostered cohesion. The Greens overreached, expending political capital too aggressively. After five years leading since Richard Di Natale’s resignation, Bandt’s tenure suggests a need for fresh leadership. Senator Larissa Waters, a proven figure with two Senate stints (2011–2017, 2018–present) and Greens Senate Leader since the pandemic, is a strong candidate. Her success in the Save Toondah campaign in South-East Queensland highlights her potential to steer the Greens toward recovery with a steady, strategic hand.
The Greens risk drifting from their environmental roots by prioritising social justice issues, which, while important, has led to a perception of engaging in battles without clear solutions or strategic endgames. This shift, coupled with an uphill fight against corporate interests, has strained their identity. Moving away from grassroots democracy toward a centralised party structure – key to their 2016–2022 success in inner Brisbane seats—has ironically mirrored Labor’s past missteps on a smaller scale. This risks positioning the Greens as a Labor equivalent, akin to the Nationals’ relationship with the Liberals, a comparison both sides would reject. To recover, the Greens must reconnect with their grassroots base, refocus on environmental priorities, and adopt a more strategic, solution-oriented approach.
The Greens and Labor may eventually need to form an alliance in Brisbane City Council to address shared priorities. The Greens are poised to regain ground in inner Brisbane, especially as the 2032 Olympics spark concerns over weakened state environmental laws. Their effective policy advocacy has already influenced state and federal Labor, securing cheaper public transport, free TAFE, and lower grocery prices. As the Greens’ 2024 Queensland state candidate for Oodgeroo against the LNP’s Amanda Stoker, I witnessed their potential firsthand. To capitalise on this, the Greens must leverage their policy successes and grassroots momentum to rebuild influence in Brisbane and beyond.
The Coalition must move beyond divisive culture wars and rediscover the aspirational vision Robert Menzies crafted during the Curtin era in the 1940s, which paved the way for the Liberals’ 23-year dominance (1949–1972) during the postwar Menzies era boom. Currently, the National Party caucus outnumbers Liberal representatives, reminiscent of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s Queensland dominance, signaling a shift in Coalition dynamics. This could benefit federal Labor in the long term if the Coalition fails to learn from its fixation on culture wars and neglects core economic priorities, risking further disconnection from voters seeking practical solutions.
The LNP could regain ground in Queensland if Labor falters, particularly if the Coalition reorganises effectively. However, their dismissive approach to community consultation on projects like the Victoria Park stadium and Birkdale White Water arena for the Olympics, alongside major housing developments in priority development areas (PDAs) without adequate investment in education, public transport, or roads, risks alienating voters. The Coalition must undergo serious soul-searching to restore electability. The Howard-era “battler” appeal to blue-collar workers is losing traction, and to connect with younger generations concerned about housing, climate change, and cost-of-living pressures, the Coalition must adapt. Failure to do so could cement their place in opposition, not just federally but across all government levels.
Labor is well-positioned for a full second term and potentially a third under Anthony Albanese, contingent on delivering a successful agenda. The Greens, Coalition, and Independents are likely to reclaim seats in future elections, depending on Labor’s ability to fulfill its promises. To maintain support, Labor must stay grounded, engaging with communities at the grassroots level and avoiding the pitfalls of arrogance. Effective governance will require collaboration, with Labor compromising with Independents in the lower house and finding common ground with the Greens, who must also reciprocate to ensure mutual progress.
Infighting among progressives, as seen in historical splits like the 1950s Labor Cold War split with the Groupers, the Vietnam War’s impact on 1960s progressive politics, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 US primary challenge to Jimmy Carter, the 2010–2013 Rudd/Gillard feuds, and the 2016 Clinton-Sanders primary clash, only strengthens conservatives. Similarly, conservative divisions – such as Queensland’s 1980s Joh Coalition split, the rise of One Nation, and ongoing feuds with One Nation and Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots – have undermined the Coalition. Progressives may not see an opportunity like 2025 for another generation. Labor must draw lessons from history, fostering discipline, unity, and cooperation to unite Australia and seize this chance to transform the nation into a true land of the “fair go.”
Callen Sorensen Karklis was the 2024 QLD State candidate for Oodgeroo. He holds a Bachelor of Government and International Relations from Griffith University and Business Diploma from QLD TAFE. He currently studies a Cert 4 in Youth Work. He has worked in retail, media advertising, union and government roles. He has also been involved with Bayside Crime Stoppers in 2015-2016 and was on the Griffith Student Representative Council as the Indigenous Officer during the Pandemic in 2021. He also has been a cohost on 4ZZZ radio programs on Workers Power and Indigi Briz. He was also a coordinator for Jos Mitchell’s Leading Change Team during the 2024 Redland City Council elections. He used to be a local organiser in the Labor Party during the Newman and early Palaszczuk eras and had advised TEAL campaigns.
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How about fixing the electoral system that has the Greens struggling to take one seat with 1.5 million votes while the Nationals get 24 with the same number?
I see that Adam Bandt is blaming preference flows for him losing, the same preferences that got him into the Lower House in the first place.
Ultimately the success of a preferential voting system is, as John Howard noted : “Politics is governed by the iron laws of arithmetic.”
Under our system the winner must have fifty percent plus one. I went to school in the UK where they still work with first past the post system and rarely if ever did the winning party have anything near fifty percent, more likely in the thirties and I can remember my Dad saying, in frustration, after one such election…..‘sixty seven percent of the voters didn’t want this mob in!
We are well served by the preferential system in my view.
Spot on Terry.
On the Sky debate on the night after the election, Joe Hildebrand upset most of the panel by stating the obvious — that our preferential system means that Trumpism can never be a real threat in Oz.
As a result, we might see a push from Sky for first past the post.
I’m no election analyst, but it seems to me that “first past the post” is an improper term for the UK system where, as you say, the winner never gets 50%.
So where’s the post?
Our preferential system is the true first past the post.
Julian Donn needs to notice that the Nationals concentrate on a small number of specifically rural seats, while the Greens spread out widely and contest every seat. This is the choice of the Greens Party, and is not the fault of the electoral system.