Trump killed the Iran Deal – and now we’re living with the fallout

In 2018, Donald Trump tore up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multilateral nuclear agreement designed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. His reasons were vague, his strategy unclear, and his decision deeply rooted in domestic politics. Now, in 2025, with American and Israeli bombs falling on Iranian soil, we are watching the full consequences of that decision unfold – with grim familiarity.

The JCPOA, signed in 2015 between Iran and the “P5+1” (the U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany), was one of the most effective diplomatic achievements in recent Middle Eastern history. It required Iran to dismantle large portions of its nuclear program and submit to what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) described as the most intrusive inspections regime ever imposed on a state.

The facts are not in dispute. Under the JCPOA:

• Iran reduced its enriched uranium stockpile by 97%
• It capped enrichment at 3.67% purity, far below weapons-grade
• It dismantled two-thirds of its centrifuges
• It granted round-the-clock access to international inspectors

And perhaps most importantly: Iran complied.

Time and again, the IAEA confirmed that Iran was living up to its end of the bargain. So too did the U.S. intelligence community and close allies in Europe. The deal was working – suppressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, empowering moderates within its government, and reducing the risk of military conflict.

But that wasn’t good enough for Donald Trump. Obsessed with reversing anything bearing Barack Obama’s signature, he pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018, reimposing unilateral sanctions and launching what he called a “maximum pressure campaign.”

What followed was utterly predictable – and predicted.

Iran, cornered and economically strangled, began incrementally breaching the deal’s limits. Its hardliners surged back to power. Ballistic missile tests resumed. And by 2021, Iran was enriching uranium to 60% purity, edging ever closer to a nuclear breakout.

Meanwhile, Israel escalated its “covert sabotage operations.” U.S. forces targeted Iranian leaders. Diplomacy died on the vine. And the space for de-escalation – once sustained by the JCPOA – collapsed entirely.

Fast forward to today. President Trump, back in office, has greenlit direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel, emboldened and unrestrained, is hitting targets deep inside Iranian territory. The entire region is bracing for wider war (despite Trump’s claims that he has brokered peace). And it all could have been avoided.

The truth is this: The U.S. and Israel would not be bombing Iran had Trump not destroyed the nuclear deal in 2018.

The JCPOA had flaws. No agreement is perfect. It didn’t address Iran’s missile program or its role in regional conflicts. But it was never designed to be a catch-all solution. It was meant to buy time, build trust, and avert a nuclear crisis. And it did – until one man, on a whim, decided to torch it for applause at home.

The lesson is sobering. Diplomacy is painstaking. It requires patience, compromise, and good faith. But when it works, it can stop wars before they start. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA wasn’t a tactical decision – it was a reckless political stunt. And the world is now paying the price in blood, fire, and the renewed spectre of nuclear confrontation.

History will not be kind to the decision. Nor should it be.

 

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