The Trump factor: will it hurt Dutton?

Peter Dutton’s stated support for Donald Trump could complicate his chances in the upcoming federal election, but the impact depends on how Australian voters perceive this stance and how it aligns with their own priorities. Dutton has expressed admiration for Trump, calling him a “big thinker” (over his Gaza plans) and emphasising his intent to work closely with him, including making Washington DC a priority overseas trip if elected prime minister. He’s also suggested he could influence Trump on issues like Ukraine and tariffs, positioning himself as someone who can manage this key alliance. However, this alignment with Trump – a polarising figure globally and in Australia – carries both risks and potential benefits.

On one hand, Trump’s policies and style don’t fully resonate with the Australian electorate. Australia’s political culture – I dare to suggest – leans toward the centre, which contrasts with the U.S.’s more polarised landscape. Polls, like one from YouGov after Trump’s 2024 win, showed more Australians favored Kamala Harris over Trump, and support for the U.S. alliance dipped slightly. Dutton’s Trump-friendly rhetoric could alienate voters wary of importing American-style populism or culture wars – think issues like immigration bans or abortion, which he’s avoided emphasising but which some on his right flank might push. Social media sentiment on X reflects this concern, with users warning against Dutton turning Australia into “Trump’s 51st state” or criticising his reluctance to challenge Trump’s tariffs head-on.

On the flip side, Dutton’s strategy might appeal to a specific slice of voters – those frustrated with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and “woke” policies, mirroring Trump’s blue-collar appeal in the U.S. His focus on scaling back bureaucracy and diversity initiatives echoes Trump’s playbook: If he frames Trump as a strong leader he can negotiate with – rather than emulate – he might reassure voters who value the U.S. alliance, especially amid global uncertainties like China’s rise.

But the election hinges on economic issues, not foreign policy. Labor’s attacks, branding Dutton as “policy-lazy” or an “appeaser,” aim to paint his Trump ties as a liability. Dutton’s challenge is to keep his Trump support from overshadowing his domestic pitch. If he missteps – like prioritising a billionaire fundraiser over cyclone prep, as some X posts highlight – he risks looking out of touch, Trump or no Trump. It’s a tightrope: his chances aren’t necessarily harder, but they’re trickier to navigate. And perhaps trickier still after April 2.

Liberation Day might be Crunch Day for Peter Dutton

Dutton’s vocal support for Trump could indeed become a liability depending on how Trump’s “Liberation Day” (April 2) unfolds and how Australians react to it.

If “Liberation Day” details – rumoured to involve sweeping executive orders like slashing federal agencies, imposing tariffs, or pushing controversial social policies (e.g., transgender sports bans) – reveal a Trump agenda that Australians find extreme or disruptive, Dutton’s association might backfire.

The risk spikes if Trump’s moves, such as more tariffs hitting Australian exports or directly harming Australia’s interests, Dutton’s claim he could “lobby” Trump (e.g., on Ukraine or tariffs) might then look naive or hollow. X chatter already flags this vulnerability, with users warning Dutton’s Trump love could cost him if it alienates moderates or Teals in key seats.

No hard data on “Liberation Day” specifics exists yet – it’s still speculative of course – so without those details it’s a coin toss. Dutton’s fate may hinge on whether Australians see Trump’s “Liberation Day” as a horror show and whether he can distance himself fast enough. Given the election’s May 17 deadline, he’s got little wriggle room to pivot if the stench sticks.

 

See also: Elect Peter Dutton, get a mini Trump

 

Dear reader, we need your support

Independent sites such as The AIMN provide a platform for public interest journalists. From its humble beginning in January 2013, The AIMN has grown into one of the most trusted and popular independent media organisations.

One of the reasons we have succeeded has been due to the support we receive from our readers through their financial contributions.

With increasing costs to maintain The AIMN, we need this continued support.

Your donation – large or small – to help with the running costs of this site will be greatly appreciated.

You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969