The future of the Liberal Party – can they recover?

Editorial: The future of the Liberal Party – can they recover?

Many might shrug and ask, “Why should we care?” But we should – because a strong opposition is vital. As political wisdom holds, a government’s quality hinges on the opposition it faces. A robust opposition ensures accountability, forging better governance. Without it, power grows unchecked.

Yet the Liberal Party is fading – not with a dramatic fall, but a quiet, self-imposed unraveling. It’s tethered to the fading legacy of Menzies and the outdated ideals of John Howard, while Australia races ahead. The 2025 election wasn’t merely a loss; it marked the end of the party’s claim to represent middle Australia. Unless it acts fast, the next election could be its final chapter.

The party faces a defining moment, grappling not just with political strategy but with its very identity. Peter Dutton’s stunning defeat in his own seat wasn’t just a personal blow – it was a damning judgment on a decade of aimless drift and ideological fog. As the Liberals hunt for a new leader and a renewed purpose, the real question looms: not just whether they can win again, but what they’d even stand for if they did.

What went wrong?

For generations, the Liberals were Australia’s natural party of government – the steady hand of Menzies, the reform zeal of Howard. But somewhere between the Abbott era’s wrecking ball and Morrison’s empty sloganeering, the party lost its way. The subsequent 2022 election loss wasn’t an aberration; it was the inevitable result of a party that had stopped speaking to the Australia that actually exists.

The new leadership contenders face an unenviable task. The moderates argue for a return to the “broad church” – a party that can appeal to both small business owners and young professionals. The conservatives demand doubling down on “traditional values” – as if repeating the same culture war battles will somehow produce different results. Both factions miss the fundamental truth: the Liberals don’t need to move left or right so much as they need to move forward into the 21st century.

Consider climate change – the issue that has become the Liberals’ political kryptonite. While the rest of the developed world embraces the clean energy transition, the party remains trapped between climate skeptics and nuclear fantasists. The result? A generation of voters now sees the Liberals as the anti-future party. Who wants to wait 20 years for nuclear plants when they can have solar panels today?

Then there’s the women problem – not just a perception issue, but a fundamental failure of representation. The Teals – a 2022 phenomenon – didn’t just take Liberal seats; they exposed how completely the party had lost touch with professional women. When voters describe the party as “stuck in the 1950s,” they’re not just criticising policies – they’re rejecting an entire worldview.

The Teal uprising wasn’t an accident – it was a betrayal. For years, the Liberals took their heartland seats for granted, assuming doctors, lawyers, and small business owners would never desert them. Then came the climate denial, the knuckle-dragging on gender equality, and the tin-eared refusal to read the room on integrity. The result? Wealthy, educated voters – the Liberals’ own people handed their votes to independents who actually represented their values.

Then there’s the demographic shifts. Younger voters, women, and professionals are drifting away – how much is due to climate policy, gender issues, or perceptions of outdated values?

Where to now?

The path back to relevance isn’t complicated, but it will require painful choices. It means finally making peace with climate science and offering credible energy policies. It demands treating women not as a demographic to be managed, but as equals to be represented. Most of all, it requires understanding that the “quiet Australians” aren’t quiet about wanting action on housing affordability, mental health, and economic fairness.

History offers a glimmer of hope. The Liberals have been written off before – after Whitlam, after Rudd – only to reinvent themselves. But this time feels different. The challenges are deeper, the alternatives more compelling, and the trust more thoroughly eroded.

The party’s next leader will face a simple choice: preside over the final decline of a once-great institution, or begin the hard work of rebuilding it for a new Australia. One path leads to oblivion. The other to renewal. The Liberals still have the talent and resources to choose wisely – but do they have the will?

As the party room prepares to vote, they might recall Menzies’ famous words about the “forgotten people.” The cruel irony is that today, it’s the Liberal Party itself that risks being forgotten – not by the elites it rails against, but by the ordinary Australians it once represented so well.

But more than a new leader, it needs a time machine – one that could transport it back to when it actually stood for something. The Liberals’ greatest threat isn’t Labor or the Teals. It’s their own refusal to look in the mirror and see what Australia already has: a party that forgot why it existed in the first place. The time machine will come in handy there.

In a word…

The Liberals aren’t just losing voters – they’re losing the plot. And without a rewrite, their next chapter will be an obituary.

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