Something is wrong – seriously wrong – but I can’t put my finger on it

An unsettling feeling settles in the pit of my stomach – something is amiss, alarmingly so – but I struggle to articulate what it is. Each time I skim a passage from Australia’s leading right-wing newspaper, The Australian, I find myself in a state of sheer disbelief, grappling with confusion and astonishment at the words before me. The disconnect is palpable, leaving me flabbergasted and yearning for clarity.

Here is an example from Simon Benson, Political Editor of The Australian:

“If Anthony Albanese has realistic hopes of being returned to office with a majority, absolutely everything must go right for Labor. Everything must go wrong for the ­Coalition to pull off an upset victory.”

When Labor ascended to power, our hopes soared. We envisioned a revival of respect for our political institutions and a reinvigoration of Parliament. Change was not just desired; it was essential, especially after years of stagnation wrought by Abbott, Morrison and Dutton’s relentless negativity. The atmosphere has shifted; we are no longer mired in the daily crises and urgent challenges that consumed nearly a decade under Coalition rule. Instead, we can breathe easier and look to a future illuminated by the promise of reform and progress.

However, substantial shifts, such as the introduction of four-year parliamentary terms, have landed squarely in the path of Peter Dutton. Recently, we’ve witnessed a line-up that exhibits negativity even more pronounced than Tony Abbott’s era.

These situations often require collaboration, but when one side rigidly resolves to reject every proposal, meaningful transformation becomes an elusive dream.

What has Labor done?

It would be an oversimplification to suggest that no progress has been made; the situation is quite the opposite. Wages are on the upswing, reflecting workers’ renewed sense of optimism. The grip of inherited inflation is being steadily loosened, providing a sense of financial relief. Remarkably, two consecutive surpluses have been realised, underscoring the strength of our economic foundation and the fine work of Dr Chalmers. Meanwhile, unemployment has dipped to an encouraging 4%, indicating employment opportunities for many.

It has legislated the most substantial changes to IR laws in decades.

The Help to Buy program offers shared equity loans for 40,000 low-middle-income families.

A historic separation of the Reserve Bank of Australia board into two committees, one for interest rate setting and another for governance.

It’s not a bad first term in anyone’s language.

Interest rate relief has begun, and carer payments, pension increases, federal rent assistance, youth allowance, Jobseeker, and disability support will all rise in March.

But human nature is what it is and is never enough. Having been through many financial crises, including the loss of two business failures and a few recessions, I understand the cost-of-living crisis being debated. Labor has been trying to do something about it.

My comparative experience tells me this crisis isn’t nearly as bad as past ones. During Keating’s recession, interest rates were 19%; unemployment reached 11.4% at the end of 1992.

The government broke an election promise not to touch the stage three tax cuts. The prime minister defended the move as a necessary backflip to help struggling households.

These were the most significant overhauls to aged care since the 2021 response to the Aged Care Royal Commission.

In March 2024, the government legislated its heavy emissions cap-and-trade scheme with the help of the Greens.

A federal agency to investigate corruption (the NACC) by public servants was legislated.

Changes aimed at saving $15 billion from the NDIS scheme, which had been on track to overtake the age pension as the most expensive area of government spending within three years. Even with the changes, such as the crackdown on fraud and rorting, it will still overtake the pension in terms of cost within a decade.

The indexation of HECS debts will be changed to move in line with inflation or the wage price index, whichever is lower. Labor says it will wipe out 20 per cent of existing student debts.

Australia became the first country to ban social media for children under 16. Platforms such as TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, X, and Reddit will have a year to comply or face fines of up to $50 million. YouTube is omitted.

In a remarkable display of legislative efficiency, Anthony Albanese’s government deftly set the stage for an upcoming election by swiftly navigating the intricate pathways of Parliament. In a whirlwind session, they pushed through an impressive 31 bills in a single day, clearing the decks of their remaining legislative agenda and paving the way for a new political chapter.

Something is seriously wrong, but I can’t put my finger on it.

Any fair-minded person analysing who they should vote for would say that the Albanese Government has done a fair job in its first term. Its record speaks for itself. Of course, as usual, only 20% of voters will decide the outcome.

The conundrum I find myself grappling with is the striking portrayal of Dutton by the media, particularly outlets under Murdoch’s influence, which cast the Labor Party in the bleakest possible light. They parade one poll after another, each one seemingly championing the Coalition. Never a word about 9 years of Coalition catastrophes.

What accolades have they truly earned? After nearly a decade of deceit, corruption, and abysmal governance, how could anyone consider renewing their mandate three years later? Do you genuinely believe that with the same personal and merely two policies – a nuclear initiative lacking any solid credentials like how it will be paid for and by who, and the promise of free lunches for wealthy business tycoons – they deserve another chance? It’s utterly absurd.

One of the oddities of political polling is trying to understand how 50% of the voting public would willingly return a party that governed so abysmally for nearly ten years.

The Poll Bludger quotes the following:

• The more trustworthy polls, like the Essential fortnightly Essential Research poll, have Labor steady at 30%, the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens steady at 12% and One Nation up one to 9%, with a constant 4% undecided. The 2PP+ measure has both Labor and the Coalition at 48%
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5 based on respondent-allocated preferences and a narrowing from 51.5-48.5 to 51-49 going off 2022 election preference flows.
• The regular Newspoll from The Australian finds the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (constant) and One Nation 7% (undecided). Anthony Albanese is constant at 37% approval and up one on approval to 58%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 41% and steady at 51%.
• The YouGov poll has predicted the Coalition will win 73 seats and that Labor will take 66 at the upcoming federal election, leaving both short of forming a majority government; = Peter Dutton will become Prime Minister with the assistance of a couple of independents.

What I think

Albanese’s lead as the preferred Prime Minister has increased from a narrow 44-41 to a more substantial 45-40. This gap is poised to expand further once the election is called. At that point, voters will be asked about their “voting intention” rather than “who they think will win,” a subtle but crucial distinction that could sway opinions. Beneath the surface lies a troubling alignment with the Trump-like factions among Australian conservatives, which presents a significant risk for those on the right side of Australian politics. Recent surveys reveal a stark reality: Trump is profoundly unpopular among Australians, highlighting a growing dissonance that could have far-reaching consequences.

How an Opposition who offers nothing but negativity and a firm NO to almost everything leaves me with a sceptical feeling of despondency.

Undoubtedly, a specific section of the Australian population is attracted to Trump/Dutton-style politics. What happens in America generally reinvents itself here, and the early signs of Trumpism are upon us. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan is being tailored for us with “Get Australia Back on Track.” The warning signs of Trump’s Authoritarian popularism are being supported by the extreme right of our politics. Former Prime Minister Turnbull once described Dutton as a thug. Like Abbott and Trump, he is only too willing to stoke the flames of political, sexual and religious division. Already, Dutton has praised Trump for his delirious thinking on Gaza.

The Office of the American President was once viewed by its people as an office of prestige and importance. Trump has reduced it to one of ridicule and contempt.

The Australian people will reject Trumpism and Dutton’s association with it. It should be enough to give Albanese a second term.

My thought for the day

We exercise our involvement in our democracy every three years by voting. After that, the vast majority take very little interest. Why is it so?

 

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