Categories: Politics

Political Futures: Will March Quarter Financial Indicators Divert Future Directions for Scott Morrison’s AUKUS Commitments?

By Denis Bright  

With its record parliamentary majority, the influx of fresh Labor faces and the move by WA’s Senator Dorinda Cox to Labor, the Albanese Government is well equipped to pragmatically manage our relationship with the Trump Administration. The popular appeal of the Albanese Government can be extended to levels not attained since John Curtin’s days through a greater commitment to national sovereignty on strategic issues.

Defence Minister Richard Marles was temporarily overwhelmed by political hype from US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Sangri-la Dialogue in Singapore (30 May-1 June 2025):

Peter Hegseth in America First Mode

Our second priority is rebuilding the military. We’re equipping American warfighters with the most advanced capabilities so that we remain the strongest and most lethal fighting force in the world.

President Trump is spending – for the first time ever – over $1 trillion next year to do this. A 13 percent increase in American defense spending. The Golden Dome for America, our new sixth generation fighter –  the F-47, our new stealth bomber – the B-21, new submarines, destroyers, hypersonics, drones, you name it. It’s all part of it. The best military equipment in the world.

We’re reviving our defense industrial base and investing in our shipyards. We’re rapidly fielding emerging technologies that will help us remain the world leader for generations to come. We are stronger – yet more agile – than ever before.

A Joint Statement followed with endorsement from the US, Australia, Japan and the Philippines. However, there were twenty-three-defence ministers at the dialogue plus observers from China. Fiji, Timor-Leste and Ukraine at the event. The Joint Statement from just four participants did not reflect the political reality of this important dialogue and made it a eulogy for the Trump administration.

In Australia, Retired Admiral Peter Briggs was highly critical of the AUKUS Deal and calls for a more cost-effective Plan B Solution (Peter Briggs: Opinion Piece in The Guardian, 11 March 2025):

The Trump administration’s actions in abandoning long-term alliances with Europe, support for Nato and Ukraine is a wakeup call. The new reality underscores the need for a fundamental review of arrangements to supply Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines. We need a sovereign solution which avoids vulnerability to a change in US and UK priorities and shortfalls in their defence budgets.

The new UK-designed submarine, “Aukus-SSN”, is too big and too expensive for Australia’s geographical and strategic needs. It is also likely to be too late and over budget. The UK’s defence budget is under extreme stress as the country’s priorities swing firmly to Europe.

The proposal to sell us submarines from the US navy’s inventory as a stop gap is a pipe dream. Not only is the mix of different types of SSN logistically impractical for Australia’s small navy but the US will not be able to construct additional submarines in time to meet its own needs and cover the gap between the retirement of the Collins until arrival of Aukus-SSN. As the nominee for head of policy at the Pentagon, Elbridge Colby, has warned, the US faces “a very difficult problem” in meeting its pledge to supply three Virginia-class submarines to Australia.

It is time for plan B: building the smaller, cheaper, easier-to-crew French Suffren-class boat.

The Trump Administration will soon get the message that Australia is not serious about militarization in our region from Anthony Albanese (Sarah Basford Canales in the Guardian 2 June 2025). Unscrambling existing budget priorities beyond the current increases in defence spending were not on Anthony Albanese’s agenda (ABC News 2 June 2025) even though these priorities are popular with the Murdoch press and the LNP Opposition:

Anthony Albanese says he won’t be dictated to on defence spending, after the United States demanded Australia do more to support the US in the Indo-Pacific. The US administration has called on Australia to lift its defence spending to almost $100 billion a year “as soon as possible.”

While Peter Segseth boasted about US defence spending of a trillion dollars in his eulogy to the Shangri-la Dialogue, the lack lustre projections for the developed OECD economies is obvious in the recently released OECD Economic Outlook (3 June 2025). The burden of defence spending is not assisting with economic management in middle ranking countries like Australia with more limited arms exports.

Australia shares in the malaise as admitted by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on the 7.30 Report (4 June 2025). The ABS national accounts data for the March 2025 Quarter (4 June 2025) shows up the crucial role of investment in a vibrant market economy:

Private investment Rises

Private investment (+0.7%) contributed 0.1ppt to GDP growth, as dwelling investment increased (+2.6%) seen across houses and alterations and additions in line with recent increases in approvals. Non-dwelling construction (+1.3%) also rose led by mining and electricity projects, while investment in machinery and equipment (-1.7%) fell with weakness in IT equipment.

Public investment (-2.0%) detracted 0.1ppt from GDP growth, however remained at elevated levels. Both State and local public corporations and State and local general government contributed to the fall as several major projects across energy, road, rail, health and education approached completion or experienced delays.

Diversifying sources of new investment into Australia and to the destinations of Australian investment is so important. Recently released investment data from ABS (7 May 2025) shows up in the direction of Australia’s inward and outward investment flows to 2024 with developed countries and both the US and Britain in particular (International Investment Position, Australia: Supplementary Statistics, 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics).

The Trump bandwagon of tariffs on both friend and potential foe alike in Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific is a trip back to another era President William McKinley (1896-1901) sought to Make America Great with exponential increases in tariffs and military occupations from Cuba to the Philippines.

If Australians wish to consolidate a dissenting mode towards the Trump administration, there are overtures available from Naval News in France (18 March 2025) to assist All Or Nothing – Australia And Its AUKUS Submarine Dilemma).

Intelligence Online (4 June 2025) also notes that while France is reluctant to entertain false hopes, recent calls from Australia’s top brass are a major boost for Naval Group. Could Paris get back in on Canberra’s submarine game?

The Albanese Government has a majority to transition towards a better submarine deal if there is a change of heart from the Trump Administration on commitments to AUKUS with local support in the Australian senate from the ten Greens, WA’s Independent Senator, Fatima Payman to consolidate the change in political direction by Senator Dorinda Cox.

Initial Normalisation Attempts with France by Australia 

Image from the Lowy Institute, 2 February, 2023

 

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

 

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AIMN Editorial

View Comments

  • All I see is Marles patting Hegseth (who looks like he's having a Mad Monk brain freeze moment) on the arm and saying, "Peter, I'm standing to the left of you. There's no-one in front of you to shake your hand."

    For all the noise (like a dry heave, nothing of any substance coming out) that Albanese is making about defence spending as a govenment decision and not being pressured by outside forces, so to speak, AUKUS will keep on keeping on and we'll only see massive cost increases before we even see one bloody submarine.

  • Good quality even handed journalism with just a mild rebuke to Richard Marcles.

  • Good to see there are contingency plans for Australian submarine replacements even these war machines are unnecessary.

  • Trump is hurting Australia with these financial burdens and interference in our domestic politics to prescribe the amount Australians should spend on defence

  • Enthusiastic support for AUKUS is a bit of a political mystery. The whole AUKUS saga was bequeathed from Scott Morrison's days. There needs to be more diversity of opinion within the broader Labor movement on this issue. My own MEAA Union did not have a policy position on AUKUS when I contacted head-office in Redfern. The financial burdens of AUKUS are barriers to progressive domestic policies in these difficult economic times. Perhaps someone has also accessed the political donations to the mainstream parties from US and British military industrial complexes and their agencies in Australia. Fear of offending military and industrial complexes has a long history in Australia. The Hawke Labor Government refused to support NZ on its nuclear weapons ban under David Lange. The Australian Navy is quite open on the history of nuclear-powered ship visits to our ports with a monograph by Dr John Nash: which is accessible online: From far-off 1960: "Another element which appears to at least corroborate a heightened Australian interest in nuclear-powered submarines are some interesting visits by nuclear submarines to Australia, and Australian personnel visits to nuclear-powered submarines, in the 1960s. The first and perhaps most interesting visit was that of USS Halibut II (SSG(N)-587) and USS Canberra, who visited Sydney between 1-7 May 1960, after they had visited Wellington in New Zealand. USS Halibut was the USN’s first nuclear-cruise missile armed submarine, carrying the Regulus I missile and was the short-lived predecessor to Polaris-armed SSBNs. The trip to Australia was her shakedown cruise where she became the first SSN to fire a cruise missile. It was also the first visit of a nuclear-powered submarine to Australia. The visit attracted much attention, with several thousand onlookers on the nearby wharves and the Domain watching as Halibut demonstrated the preparations for launch, opening the launch housing, and displaying a Regulus missile."

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