Political Futures: Even Handed Responses to Trump Tariff Vendettas

By Denis Bright

As in the Cold War era, Australian conservative leaders have offered little criticism of the strategic and economic policies of the superpowers as even token concessions to our national sovereignty. Negotiating with President Trump is still Peter Dutton’s preferred game plan for government. This is a continued insult to national sovereignty in the old traditions of Tuning into Britain to oppose relief from the Great Depression in the 1930s and to blind faith in the East of Suez strategic commitments of imperial governments.

The greatest historical insults to Australians were from the British nuclear weapon tests in two states and the hydrogen bomb tests by the US and Britain in Kiribati. US hydrogen bomb tests continued until 1962 with enormous consequences to thousands of support servicemen and to the indigenous population in these locations.

To Australian conservatives such costs were the hazards of paying our dues to have Australians protected by the resources of the US Global Alliance against perceived threats from unfriendly countries which always delivered positive trading balance for the Australian economy from trade with the Soviet Union and now China.

Our insurance bills to the USA continue with future payments for AUKUS. Should a progressive government be delivered after 3 May, it is important for parliamentary inquiries to investigate the full background to the AUKUS deal and the roles played by Peter Dutton as Defence minister in the Morrison Government for secret negotiations with Boris Johnson and Joe Biden prior to the grand announcement of the AUKUS deal in September 2021.

The latest YouGov polling shows some narrowing of the lead of the LNP in its primary vote but this is offset by preference flows from ONP in struggling outer metro and regional electorates as communicated by the Poll Bludger (11 April 2025):

No signs of a let-up in the trend to Labor in the polls, with the latest YouGov poll putting their two-party lead at 52.5-47.5 based on a respondent-allocated measure of preferences, out from 51-49 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 8.5% (up one-and-a-half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (down one). Anthony Albanese records personal ratings approaching net positive, with his approval up one to 45% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Peter Dutton is unchanged at 38% and 53%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 48-37, out from 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1505.

Another complicating factor is the state-by-state breakdown of polling results as presented by The Guardian from previous polling in late March (10 April 2025). The eastern mainland states were all potential weak spots for Labor on this now outdated polling. Detailed new polling might be released this weekend to update this polling which is particularly newsworthy. It could still make or break the slender hold of the Prime Minister Albanese on majority government or even decide if Peter Dutton loses his seat of Dickson on its 1.7 TPP margin.

The latest YouGov polling is marginally ahead of the 2022 results on slightly higher primary votes for both Labor and the Greens. A little more co-operation between Labor’s preferential vote allies could produce a final surge as 3 May approaches.

Conservative Slogan Politics has prevented Labor from surging in seats like Forde and Longman on the outskirts of Brisbane and in regional seats like Capricornia where LNP representatives are willing to live with the consequences of the Trump tariffs and vendettas against our most profitable trading partner. Australian conservatives and their far-right allies in marginal seats will always come up with new slogans to support those All the Way with Neoliberalism appeals to insecure voters.

Despite the rebound in most financial markets after the announcement of a pause in tariff hikes beyond the 10 percent threshold in the next 90 days, the jitters returned to US markets yesterday as the inflationary consequences of tariff vendettas against China became apparent. The All-Ordinaries index rose by 4.7 percent for the day despite a fall in the value of the NASDAQ composite index of 4.3 percent. In the first morning of trading on 11 April 2025, our All-Ordinaries index has shown a 1.4 percent decline as big investors go out for a concessional taxpayer funded lunchbreak at the expense of more funding for Medicare or the Job Seeker Allowance through the tax minimization charade. Expect the market to rally during the afternoon session after the euphoria of the lunchbreak.

Many Australian voters still believe that they are choking in federal government debt which has impacted on their interest rate payments and housing costs. The political reality of Jim Chalmer’s cautious fiscal management is summarised in Statement 10 of the Budget Papers to permit a fact-checking of comparisons with those long years of LNP Government.

Federal Government spending has decreased from 31.4 percent of GDP in the last full year of the Morrison Government in 2020-21 with its deficit of $131.2 billion to 27 percent in the estimates for 2025-26 with its first Labor deficit of $42.1 billion to pay for cost-of-living relief and perceived defence requirements.

Like the LNP’s energy costings, constituents should be able to fact-check the avalanche of Slogan Politics. Such opportunities can come by making the responsible use of AI data within the Australian Department of Finance (FD) available to Economics students and to the wider public to supplement ABS Releases. FD is quite open about its responsible use of AI resources:

The Department of Finance (Finance) is committed to the safe and responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI).

We consider AI offers significant opportunities to improve productivity and service delivery within our workplace.

We govern our AI in line with applicable laws and regulations, the Digital Transformation Agency’s (DTA) Policy for the responsible use of AI in government (the Policy) and best practice.

At Finance, we are applying the guidance outlined in DTA’s Pilot Australian Government AI assurance framework (the Framework) and have chosen to limit our use of AI to low-risk use cases. This guidance implements Australia’s AI Ethics Principles and uses the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Developments (OECD) concepts to define AI and identify which of our systems uses AI.

In the meantime, spare a thought for Labor candidate Alex Newman who takes up the challenge of working for a swing against David Littleproud in Maronoa in the traditions of Labor’s previous candidate, Dave Kerrigan. This is currently the safest conservative seat which was protected by a ONP primary of almost 12 percent in 2022. In some polling booths, the One Nation (ONP) vote exceeded the Labor vote as in townships like Chinchilla. Here, ONP scored over 17 percent of the primary vote and denied David Littleproud of his absolute majority.

Despite the swing to Labor in Maranoa in 2022 only the voters at the Eukey Public Hall in the Granite Belt could offer just a 50-50 result after preferences to Labor after the allocation of substantial Green preferences.

Maranoa was indeed held by Labor for the first twenty years after federation. A century of Labor droughts have followed except for a one term victory for school inspector Frank Baker in 1940 who followed his deceased son into federal parliament after Francis Baker died in a car accident as Labor MP for Griffith in Brisbane in 1939.

Close results in tight elections are not new. Labor retained Griffith by just eight votes after preferences at the by-election and provided that extra seat after the 1940 election to enable John Curtin to form a minority government with Independent support in 1941. Such variables add interesting dimensions to Australian politics and distract from the populism and sloganeering of the 1939 by-election and its sequel in the 1940 general election:

Maranoa needs more government spending to recover from the recent floods and a greater commitment to improved accessibility for affordable tourism during the sunny months ahead. Sample the exotic wines and local foodstuffs which delight visitors. Let’s respect those hard-working rural people who keep us healthy.

Given a choice at the supermarket, I showed this respect by choosing soup from the South Australian Gourmet Food Company over the popular American food brands. My choice was enhanced by the lower salt content of the Australian brand. Curiosity invited me to look at the extent of tax minimisation by the multinational companies.

Readers can check on the tax payments of both Kraft Heinz and Continental and lobby for a more accountable corporate record through that new suggested accessibility of that FD app to fact check all that sloganeering using Economic jargon.

Australia deserves the right to choose its own trading partners and investment sources without advice from the White House and inputs from the Office of the US Trade Representative which is strategically embedded in US Consulates and Embassies worldwide.

In conclusion, a final award to the constituents of Eukey in the Granite Belt in the electorate of Maranoa.

A Promo for Eukey, Queensland

 

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

 

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