Political Futures: A Budget for More Inclusive Times Ahead?

By Denis Bright

Jim Chalmer’s Budget is an opportunity to regain momentum for the return of an Albanese Government. The Albanese Government has made up some ground since the YouGov Polling last month (Crikey 21 March 2025):

The now weekly YouGov poll records a 50-50 result after two weeks with Labor in their nose in front, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 7% (down half). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 42% and down one to 47%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-39 to 45-40.

Centre left governments are a rarity these days in other developed representative democracies. Political insiders here are fully aware of the trendlines in public opinion. One third of the Australian electorate follows the global trend of searching beyond the confines of the old two-party system. There is a dalliance with new progressive voices to the left and right of the two major parties. The current budget driftsjust a little towards the progressive left. The antics of the Trump administration even justifies some implied criticisms of a prevailing Whiten House administration.

On the progressive side of Australian politics, the cult of points scoring against Labor still prevails against thepossibilities of closer Win-Win strategies around a more united front of Labor, Greens, the TEAL Members and progressive independents. In contrast, Peter Dutton’s affinity with the populism with the far-right minor parties is more substantial.

The Albanese Government still has room to manoeuvre within its income tax relief measures costing $17.1 billion. More of the tax concessions could be skewed towards lower income taxpayers. There are also opportunities to fine-tune excise duties on alcohol and to hasten controls on overseas purchases of Australian real estate.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has a nifty grasp of budget details and can take up suggestions to fine tune the budget mix with worthwhile suggestions from the LNP and the crossbench if debate on the budget is allowed to continue before the Albanese government goes into caretaker mode.

Ironically, the Curtin-Chifley era commenced with a minority government in 1941. Key conservative independents changed sides to support a minority Labor Government under John Curtin to bring on a full debate of Labor Government for the remainder of the 1940s. Labor secured all its heartland urban and regional seats and made inroads into the regional bases ofboth the Country Party and the United Australia Party. Labor also had more senators after 1943 in a senate of 36 members, half of whom were elected in 1940 but under a first past the post voting system for the senate until the 1949 election.

The latest pre-budget YouGov polling shows a need to improve Labor’s primary vote in heartland electorates with disadvantaged voters, retired voters who would welcome home-based aged care packages and of course female voters.

Now dated YouGov polling from February 2025 had the LNP etching towards majority government but this momentum has been eroded through deferral of the announcement of the election date and the presentation of a full budget (Coalition best-placed to form a government, but is currently falling two seats short of a majority | YouGov):

Labor is projected to lose the coalmining seat of Hunter (that it has held since 1910) along with neighbouring constituencies of Shortland and Paterson.

Formerly safe Labor working class electorates in outer suburban Sydney and Melbourne are projected to see some of the largest swings against the party. The western Sydney seat of Werriwa – once held by former Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam – is set to be won by the Coalition on a swing of 5.9%.

Two government ministers are projected to lose their seats – Pat Conroy, MP for Shortland and current Cabinet Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery, and Kristy McBain, MP for Eden-Monaro and incumbent Local Government minister.

The Coalition is projected to win none of the seats taken by “Teal” independents in the last election. This suggests the Coalition is experiencing challenges in winning support from the higher income, highly educated voters that dominate its former heartland seats in Sydney and Melbourne.

Labor is slightly favoured to win Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith from the Greens and Fowler back from the Independent Dai Le. In these three ways, Labor success rests on its ability to finish ahead of the Coalition and then win on preferences.

Initiatives like the Women’s Budget Statement are a niftypolicy initiative. Labor’s primary vote with females has dipped below 30 percent (The Australian 24 March 2025):

 

Writing for The Guardian (20 March 2025), Rebecca Huntley probably quite correctly claims that commitment to a “fair-go” as a fundamental political value has been replaced by greater concern about personal security at both a household and broader geopolitical level within Australia and in the global community.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers can still fine-tune another True Believers Budget in the traditions of Paul Keating’s surprise efforts in 1993 when Labor only had an outside chance of surviving the worst post 1930’s recession with double digit levels of inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

On the conservative side of today’s political divide, minority populist parties will call for a reduction in deficit and debt levels which are covered in Statement 3 of the Budget Papers:

 

Persisting with this criticism from the LNP will also invite a scare campaign from Labor against budget cuts in key portfolios essential to the delivery of tax reductions for all, cost-of-living relief, affordable housing initiatives and key commitments in health and infrastructure. By world standards, Australian public sector spending is quite modest. The proposed increases in government spending proposed for 2025-26 are fully in-line with inflation rates and represent 27 percent of GDP in the public sector.

 

Attention to the medium and longer-term future of the Australian economy is not really assisted by the constant media discussion of short-term federal expenditure and revenue trends with encouragement from the LNP and the far-right minor parties.

Myths have been generated about creeping levels of public sector spending under Labor Governments which have remained constant at 23-27 percent of gdp for a couple of decades with peak expenditures (31.3 percent in 2020-21) occurring during the COVID-crisis. This attracted bipartisan support from Labor. The metaphor that Labor Governments spend like the proverbial drunken sailors is a fantasy.

Historically, the Fraser Government had a larger deficit than Gough Whitlam’s last full budget in 1974-75 with public sector spending of 21.7 percent of GDP and a continuation of the surpluses throughout the Whitlam years. By 1977-78, the Fraser Government had increased public sector spending to 24.8 percent of gdp with a deficit of over $2 billion.

More attention to private sector investment levels in 2025-26 would assist in absorbing legitimate increases in government spending in social security (+36.5 percent increase in 2024-25), health (+15.3 percent increase) and defence (+6.5percent).

In a more politically enlightened society, Australians should be looking more at levels of private sector investment over short-term fluctuations in federal government spending and revenues. A temporary public sector deficit of a projected $42.1 billion in 2025-26 is of little significance in an Australian economy which will top $2 trillion in gdp during 2025-26.

The quality of news sources available to voters is also very significant as shown in Rebecca Huntley’s article:

 

Radioinfo News (26 March 2025) noted that budget expenditure on public broadcasting and television as well as the Australian Film Television and Radio School was just consistent with projected inflation rates.

The quest for a more inclusive Australia is still highly nuanced in the text of the current budget although the rhetoric of the Treasurer still has the flavour of more traditional class politics even though a Labor primary vote of 33 percent would be a radical improvement on current polling.

Both the LNP and the far-right populists are obsessed by opposition to class politics which is second nature to Jim Chalmers with his electorate office at Woodridge in Logan City in Brisbane’s Outer Southside Metro. Ironically, the style of our conservative parties is highly ideological in the post-1996 traditions of John Howard, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.

Let’s hope that Treasurer Chalmers can consolidate his commitment to repeat a solid victory for the True Believers at an election in May 2025. As a starting point, political insiders and a critical media might explain how our budget got stuck with AUKUS as an ongoing financial liability that lessened our capacity for national sovereignty and greater trading and investment ties with adjacent Asian and Pacific countries.

 

Denis Bright (pictured) is a financial member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA). Denis is committed to consensus-building in these difficult times. Your feedback from readers advances the cause of citizens’ journalism. Full names are not required when making comments. However, a valid email must be submitted if you decide to hit the Replies Button.

 

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