Welcome to The AIMN’s Election Day live commentary hub! Whether you’re glued to the results, refreshing your feed for updates, or just here for the vibes, this is the place to share your thoughts, predictions, and reactions as the counts roll in.
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• Live Updates: Check back here for our running commentary as results trickle in. We’ll highlight key races, unexpected twists, and big wins.
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The Libs need a 16% swing against them in my electorate for them to even look like losing.
I didn’t vote for them, which would hardly move the dial anyway.
Living in hope.
In Wannon, heart of The Western District where once you could put a blue tie on a kelpie and it would be elected by the local Liberals, the word is that Independent, Alex Dyson is in with a chance this time.
Third time lucky?
Be great to see a professional comedian join the other clowns in Canberra. Even greater to farewell dapper Dan Tehan, still regarded as a blow-in by locals – including the rump of the squattocracy who haven’t been the same since Malcolm hung up his stock whip. (Malcolm Fraser that is, not Malcolm “Fizza” Turnbull.)
Locals still tell the story of a few farm hands who were out on the Fraser property, Nareen, fixing fences.
The men had knocked off because it was dark and they were brewing a billy of tea when, in a thunder of hoofbeats, suddenly, The Boss was amongst them, fully booted and spurred. On horseback. Swinging the whip wildly. Screaming.
You could tell that Malcolm was a bit worked up. But his message was clear. The workers could all fuck off. Or he’d call the police. Immediately.
“I trust I make myself clear!”
With a final crack of the whip, and without dismounting, our great helmsman, who on retirement became outspoken on humanitarian matters, wheeled his steed around and galloped back towards the woodshed, said to have been a recycled part of Hamilton airport, toward the odd bungalow form that is the homestead at Nareen.
I saw somewhere – sorry, can’t remember where – that exit polls in Dickson show Ali France leading Dutton by a quarter of a whisker.
Interesting, but it wasn’t enough to get my hopes up.
Hi, David. Wannon – was that Malcom Fraser’s electorate?
The good news:That complete arsehole,pretender, fuckwit Boofhead, will be gone.
The bad news:A Labor majority ensures another three years of avoiding the urgent issues facing the planet.
A minority Labor government would allow the crossbench to force Labor to come good.Provided they don’t gang up with the LNP rump, which is not out of the question.
Whatever the eventual result in number of seats,we’ll have to put up with all the usual post election horse shit, with all the “experts”explaining why they were actually right all along…even when they were not.
At least the member for Maranoa won’t stress out…he’s in the middle of redneck central.
I’m with you, Harry. The best outcome will be a minority Labor government. A lot would get done.
I’m in the Dickson electorate. Crossing everything that we’ll finally be able to get the d!ck out of Dickson.
Yes, Roswell, Fraser was Wannon.
Hi, Dave. Wonderful to see you.
re. David Tyler’s anecdote, it is possibly apocryphal; in the summers of ’69 and ’70 I worked in that district, residing in Casterton and each day driving past Fraser’s property en route to various farms where my employer had hay-carting contracts; I drove the trucks in the paddocks along the lines of hay bales with an attached jig that picked up the bales and lifted them to the back of the truck and my boss stacked… after we loaded two trucks we’d go back to the sheds and build the stacks. My boss was a born & bred western Victorian from that town, and he was full of yarns about his childhood and the characters in that district. We drove past Fraser’s property, Nareen, many times, but he never mentioned that story about Fraser’s behaviour. Not denying, but who knows?
Sid Kidman, the cattle king, who started with next to nothing and became the largest landholder in Australia during his time, was reputed to have sacked an employee who used a match to light his cigarette instead of choosing an ember from the camp fire. Apocryphal? Possibly. Bush legends take on a life of their own.
A majority ALP government will produce the best outcome.
The government has had a successful term and deserves to continue.
The Liberals need a full 3 years to reflect on their position on the political spectrum, without constantly believing they are a chance to roll a minority government
I’ll be watching two – Dickson, hoping that the Dud gets shafted and Oxley where I live (Milton Dick).
From a friend watching Sky News;
“fuck me, Dutton is on track to lose his seat with 5% counted.”
Sensible comment from A Commentator
Roswell, am astonished you don’t the hisory of Fraser and Wannon. Beautiful place southwest Victoria and Fraser was known as the “Squire of Wannon”.
I notice a Michael Taylor comment concerning Dickson, which I took to be a response to the wisdom of Narelle.
@ Michael – yes 10.5% swing to Ali France as I type this. She’s 1019 votes ahead at last report.
AC, when did you come over from the dark side? In the 19 years I’ve known you I always assumed you leaned to the right.
Nonetheless, we welcome you with open arms.
Uncle Tim – wow.
And now for something completely different:
The Crows currently leaqd Carlton by nearly five goal in Adelaide, despite the umpiring and commentators..
I’ve a good excuse, Paul. When I moved here from America I wasn’t interested in politics. Fraser was long gone before I took any interest.
Roswell
A Wise man…you did’t miss a lot.
Fraser was dour and the electorate turned to Hawke in the early eighties, after the long, dreary recession of the ‘seventies.
For Laborites, a happy ending would be Albo as long awaited inheritor to Hawke. We all thought Rudd was the annointed one, but the Labor factions fell into fighting amongst themselves and we ended up with Abbott, for our troubles. The rest you probably know.
But does the electorate know also?
I used to see Fraser on Twitter in his later years. He swung to the left and turned out a decent bloke. He was also the head of Care Australia – a wonderful mob.
Thank you Michael! I don’t think I’ve been particularly conservative, but as the battleground moves from unions/industrial relations, other issues emerge.
The Liberals under Dutton lack any appeal on any of the issues that concern me.
The ALP has proved to be entirely competent, although I’m not a fan of Jim Chalmers.
I hope the next ALP leader is a choice between Tanya Plibersek and Clair O’Neil
I agree with Michael Taylor’s comment.
Fraser was Lib to the Vic bootstraps, but there was a touch of Ddeakanite there also- he became much more human to people in his defence of asylum seekers.
BTW, an error of mine, he was the Squire of Nareen, the prestigious property.
Different, rapidly changing times, not always nice, the ‘seventies of last century.
AC, I’d select O’Neil out of those two. For personal reasons I don’t like Plibersek one little bit. She’s been caught out lying on more than one occasion.
Well, can I just say, to all the AIMN scribblers who’ve provided so much fine commentary on the leader of the Opposition, it would appear that he’s history, seat lost to the ALP’s Ali France, and now consigned to the dustbin of history. Sad, as his orange-hued American supporter might note. Time to throw another spud on the barby.
Looks like the dud is gone. 10.7% swing in primary vote to Ali France. Nearly 1500 votes ahead at 9.00pm, 34% counted.
France 34.5%, Dud 30.7%
The Guardian agrees by the way and apparently other analysts with more skills than I have do too.
Words that come back to haunt you: Dutton said today there would be surprises tonight.
The evening moves on…
Crows by ten goals.
Now the big claim emerging is that Dutton has lost his seat: the Dick certainly might have been taken out Dickson. Some hope of a Greens win a regional seat, but Anthony Green says Labor holds it.
It is definitely a flogging for the Coalition, so it seems Labor can form government withut the help of Greens and other Indies..
Am not sure I like it and I think thqt in away it is a “loss
‘ here- the indies could have done a job influencing the government to more sensible policies than the lobby groups might have liked.
The biggest danger now is that Labor will start believing that it can continue to wave through gas projects, ignore enviromental concerns, and fall into a mistaken belief that it has a mandate to ignore the climate catastrophe that is upon us.
Defeating a pack of idiots is not a licence to act like its all good.I hope they prove me wrong.
Congratulations all round and I like to think, Michael, that this site and its contributors played a part in returning a decent government and outing a rabble!
Thank you, Terry.
All credit should go to you guys. I only built the site – you guys fill it up.
Will Ginormous give Duddy a job or dump him?
It appears that Angus “Ten fingers and toes” Taylor and Annabelle Ley have put their hands up for the leadership. That pretty much guarantees another term for Labor if either of those two morons get the job.
Adamned Blot…I mean, Andrew Bolt, has a hissy fit:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2025/may/04/andrew-bolt-sky-news-react-coalition-loss-australian-federal-election
GL
Among the over-the-top reactions was this from Sharri Markson on Sky : “labor mounted a ferocious attack on Peter Dutton in Dickson”.
Maybe time for Newscorp and Sky to recognise that they are out of step with the Australian people.
Looks like that goose Tehan has retained Wannon…what’s wrong with those people? Dopey Dan could put his hand up for leader,could not possibly be worse than bucket mouth Taylor or flannel mouth Ley…could he?
Now that’s funny:
https://i.postimg.cc/VvY21wnQ/img-1-1746299804321.jpg
The size of the swing against incumbent Libs in Tassie is just gobsmacking. So glad people here have finally woken up to what a shambles that mob is.
Harry Lime: no matter who puts their hand up, they will be Muppets. The second point is that getting back into government will be a huge hill to climb. If Albo and his gang do not stuff things up, they have the power to reshape Australia in a good way. For the sake of my children and grandchildren, I hope that is what will happen.
Point taken, Canguro. A healthy scepticism is always in order. I’ll take it up with my source when I see him again next Thursday. My recall is that your summer of 69-70 may pre-date the event in the anecdote. In the wider frame, I do recall how rumours of the Palace being involved in The Dismissal were dismissed as unfounded scuttlebutt. Today, in the light of Jenny Hocking’s research – not so much. Or as she put it in 2014, “A more knowledgeable and informed public would not only participate more fully in the political and creative life of the nation, but would be a part of government making itself.”