Image from the Monash University
In Victoria, headlines scream of rising crime, politicians trade barbs over “law and order,” and social media feeds overflow with viral videos of brazen thefts or assaults. But are crime rates truly spiraling out of control, as the media insists? Or is this a manufactured crisis, designed to serve political agendas and profit-driven media cycles? This article unpacks the disconnect between perception and reality, explores who benefits from the “crime wave” narrative, and examines how this dynamic shapes public policy and political power.
According to the Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) Victoria, the story of crime in the state is nuanced:
• Total recorded offenses decreased by 0.6% in 2022–2023.
• Property and deception offenses** (e.g., burglary, theft) fell by 5.5%.
• Public order offenses (e.g., riots, disorderly conduct) rose by 7.9%.
• Family violence incidents increased by 2.5%, reflecting better reporting, not necessarily more violence.
Key Takeaway: While certain crimes (e.g., youth offending, public order breaches) have drawn attention, overall crime rates are stable or declining in many categories. The perception of a crime epidemic is not supported by data.
The media’s obsession with crime is driven by three interconnected factors:
• Crime stories generate clicks, views, and outrage – key drivers of advertising revenue. Violent or shocking crimes dominate headlines, even if they are statistically rare.
• Example: A single viral video of a Melbourne shoplifting incident can overshadow months of declining theft rates.
• Audiences who believe crime is rising seek out and share crime stories, reinforcing the narrative. Algorithms amplify this, creating an echo chamber of fear.
• Crime stories are easy to frame: “good vs. evil,” “victim vs. perpetrator.” Complex root causes (e.g., poverty, mental health) are ignored for digestible soundbites.
• Profit-driven models prioritise crime coverage to boost ratings and ad revenue. News Corp outlets, for instance, have been criticised for disproportionately focusing on crime to drive engagement.
The Coalition and other right-leaning groups position themselves as “tough on crime,” promising punitive solutions (e.g., more police, longer sentences). Media amplification of crime helps them:
• Distract from policy weaknesses: Shifting focus from cost-of-living crises or healthcare underfunding.
• Wedge progressive governments: Portraying Labor as “soft” for prioritising prevention and rehabilitation.
• Police unions and departments often leverage crime fears to lobby for increased funding and expanded powers.
The media-conservative alliance has turned crime into a potent political weapon:
Victoria’s Labor government has invested in community programs, mental health services, and youth diversion initiatives. However, these long-term solutions are drowned out by media headlines framing Labor as “failing to keep streets safe.”
• Conservative opposition leader John Pesutto, for example, has called for stricter bail laws and mandatory sentencing – policies that resonate with voters frightened by sensationalised crime reports.
• Crime reporting spikes before elections, as seen in the 2022 Victorian state election. The Coalition weaponized isolated incidents (e.g., youth car thefts) to undermine Labor’s credibility.
• Even as crime rates fall, relentless coverage convinces 60% of Victorians that crime is worsening (CSA, 2023). This fear drives demand for punitive measures.
• Forcing Policy Shifts
• Governments face pressure to adopt knee-jerk responses. Example: Labor’s 2023 move to trial electronic monitoring of youth offenders – a policy critics called reactive and counterproductive.
• Evidence-based strategies (e.g., social housing, education, drug rehabilitation) are sidelined in favor of “quick fixes” like increased policing.
Victoria’s crime discourse mirrors tactics seen worldwide:
• UK: Conservative media demonised Labour as “soft on crime” to elect Boris Johnson.
• USA: Fox News’ focus on “urban crime waves” bolstered Trump’s 2016 campaign.
• Brazil: Far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro rose to power on promises to “clean up the streets.”
The “crime wave” narrative in Victoria is not just misleading – it’s dangerous. By prioritising fear over facts, the media and conservative politicians risk entrenching policies that exacerbate inequality, overcrowd prisons, and ignore root causes.
• Demand evidence-based reporting: Support media outlets that contextualise crime data.
• Reject punitive populism: Challenge politicians peddling simplistic “tough on crime” slogans.
• Invest in communities: Advocate for long-term solutions like education, housing, and mental health care.
Crime is a policy challenge, not a political weapon. It’s time to see through the hype.
Crime Statistics Agency Victoria (2023)
Australian Institute of Criminology
Grattan Institute, Rethinking Law and Order (2022)
The Conversation, Why the media aren’t helping to solve the ‘youth crime crisis’ they’re reporting (2023)
Final Word: In the words of criminologist Dr. Emma Ryan: “When we let fear dictate policy, we all lose.”
Addendum to Article: The NT and Queensland Elections, Media Hypocrisy, and the Case for Prevention Over Punishment
Recent elections in the Northern Territory (2024) and Queensland (2024) provide stark examples of how crime narratives are weaponised to sway voters, only to vanish once conservative governments take power.
• Pre-election: Media outlets, particularly News Corp, saturated coverage of youth crime in Darwin and Alice Springs, framing it as an “epidemic” caused by “weak” Labor policies.
• Headlines like “Territory in Terror” dominated, despite data showing stable crime rates.
• Post-election: After the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won, media coverage of crime plummeted. Despite little change in actual crime rates, the urgency evaporated.
• Pre-election: The LNP and media allies focused relentlessly on youth crime in regional areas, particularly Townsville.
• Sky News and The Courier-Mail ran stories alleging “soft sentencing” under Labor, despite Queensland’s youth detention rates being among the highest in Australia.
• Post-election: After the LNP failed to win, crime coverage sharply declined. When the LNP later won local by-elections in 2023, the pattern repeated: pre-election fearmongering, post-election silence.
• Media complicity: Outlets amplify crime stories to create a perception of crisis before elections, then drop the issue once conservative governments are elected – even if no policy changes occur.
• Public disillusionment: Voters in Darwin and Townsville have noted the hypocrisy. As one Darwin resident told The Guardian: “After the election, the news just… moved on. Like the problem was solved by voting, not by action.”
The obsession with punitive “tough on crime” policies ignores decades of evidence showing that prevention is cheaper, more effective, and morally just.
• Socioeconomic factors: Poverty, unemployment, and lack of education are key drivers of crime.
• Programs like Victoria’s Youth Diversion Program* (which connects at-risk youth with mentors and training) have reduced reoffending by 40%.
• Mental health and addiction: Up to 80% of Australia’s prison population has a mental health condition or substance abuse issue. Investing in treatment, not prisons, breaks the cycle.
Cost of incarceration: Housing one prisoner costs $150,000+ annually in Australia.
• Example: Queensland’s On Country program, which supports Indigenous youth through cultural education, costs $15,000 per participant and cuts reoffending rates by 60%.
• Economic benefits: Every $1 spent on early childhood education saves $7 in future crime costs (US National Institutes of Health).
• Recidivism rates: 45% of Australian prisoners reoffend within two years of release. Harsher sentences do little to deter crime but entrench disadvantage.
• Over-policing harms communities: Indigenous Australians are 13x more likely to be jailed than non-Indigenous Australians. Punitive policies deepen systemic inequities.
• Stop sensationalising crime for profit. Contextualise stories with data and avoid racialized or classist framing.
• Investigate why crime occurs, not just what happened.
Fund community-led initiatives:
• Housing-first programs (reducing homelessness-linked crime).
• Trauma-informed schools (addressing childhood adversity).
• Job guarantees in high-unemployment areas.
• Redirect prison budgets to mental health, education, and social services.
Voters Must Reject Fearmongering
• Demand evidence-based policies, not slogans.
• Support candidates who prioritize prevention over punishment.
The NT and Queensland elections reveal a cynical playbook: amplify crime to install conservative governments, then ignore the issue. Meanwhile, communities suffer as prevention programs are defunded in favour of prisons and policing.
The solution isn’t complicated:
• Invest in people, not prisons.
• Treat crime as a public health issue, not a political weapon.
• Hold media accountable for fear-driven reporting.
As former NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner warned: “When you govern by headline, you fail by headline.” It’s time to write a new story – one where safety begins with justice, not jail time.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Prisoners in Australia (2023)
The Guardian, NT Election: Northern Territory thrashing on crime a warning to Labor: tangible success is the only way to campaign (2024)
Queensland Government, On Country Program Evaluation (2022)
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Youth Diversion Outcomes (2023)
Final Thought: Crime is not inevitable – it’s a policy choice. Let’s choose prevention.
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Same thing happened here in Qld leading up to the State election. One party, puffed up with rage about juvenile crime, not wanting to do anything to prevent it, but full of vengeful ideas of punishment, all the experts rubbished. It worked for them. The fact that crime rates had fallen had absolutely nothing to do with it.
When you are a policy free vacuum like the LNP and there's an election looming it's FEAR, HORROR, CRIME, TERROR, CRIME and CRIME, ad nauseam. Every election since caterpillar eyebrows it's the same old bullshit.
And then there is evidence based research that shows going ever harder on young people can make them worse and not better.
https://theconversation.com/exploring-the-link-between-school-exclusion-and-crime-new-research-252122?