Canadians reject Trump

The Trump factor significantly influenced the Canadian federal election outcome yesterday, where Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured victory. Donald Trump’s actions and rhetoric during the campaign period reshaped the political landscape, ultimately boosting the Liberals and undermining the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre.

Trump’s influence manifested in several key ways. First, his repeated threats to annex Canada as the “51st state” and his imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, particularly a 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars, sparked a surge of Canadian nationalism. This was evident in public reactions like Canadian hockey fans booing the U.S. national anthem and widespread boycotts of American products. Carney capitalised on this sentiment, framing the election as a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty and positioning himself as the leader best equipped to stand up to Trump. His campaign slogan, “Elbows up, Canada,” a hockey reference, became a rallying cry for national unity against U.S. interference, resonating with voters who felt betrayed by their southern neighbour.

Second, Trump’s actions shifted voter priorities. Early in the campaign, the Conservatives held a commanding 25-point lead, driven by domestic concerns like the cost of living and housing unaffordability. However, Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats elevated foreign policy and economic sovereignty to the forefront. A CTV News poll from early March 2025 found that 36% of Canadians considered Trump the most important issue influencing their vote, surpassing even the economy at 29%. A POLITICO/Focaldata poll from April 18–23 showed 39% of voters saw Trump as a top concern.

Third, Trump’s unpopularity in Canada – his net favourability was minus 61 in the POLITICO/Focaldata poll – damaged Poilievre’s campaign. Poilievre, often labeled “Trump lite” by critics due to his populist style and policies like opposing “woke ideology,” struggled to distance himself from Trump. Trump’s direct criticism of Poilievre, calling him “stupidly, no friend of mine” on Fox News, further complicated the Conservative leader’s position. Meanwhile, Carney, a former central banker with experience navigating global crises, was seen as better suited to manage U.S. relations, with polls like Ipsos in March showing Canadians favored him over Poilievre to handle Trump and tariffs.

The Liberals’ resurgence was also a strategic vote against Trump, driven by a belief that Carney was less likely to “roll over” to Trump’s demands.

In summary, Trump’s interference – through tariffs, annexation threats, and his toxic image in Canada – played a pivotal role in the Liberals’ victory by fueling nationalism, shifting voter priorities, and undermining the Conservatives. Trump’s shadow loomed large, transforming the election into a test of who could best defend Canada’s sovereignty.

 

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