It was rather uncomfortable reading that a global strategist has warned that Australia could have just months before we are “asked to choose” who we align with between the US and China amid an escalating trade war between the two nations.
What if he is right?
If he is correct – and he did sound convincing – we are facing a high-stakes choice between aligning with the United States, our key military ally, or China, our primary trading partner.
Who do we choose? How do we frame it?
To make an informed choice we would need to weigh Australia’s national interests – security, economic prosperity, sovereignty, and even global standing – while navigating the risks and opportunities of each path. Key considerations include:
1. Security and Defense
• US Alignment: The US provides critical military support through ANZUS, AUKUS, and intelligence-sharing (Five Eyes). Choosing the US reinforces defense against regional threats, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, where tensions (e.g., South China Sea, Taiwan) are rising.
• China Alignment: China has limited formal security ties with Australia but significant regional influence. Aligning with China could reduce the risk of being targeted in regional conflicts but might weaken Australia’s defense posture and alienate traditional allies. (Risks are discussed in more detail below under “Potential Repercussions”.)
2. Economic Interests
• US Alignment: The US is a major investor and trade partner, but China dominates Australia’s export market (e.g., iron ore, coal, natural gas). Siding with the US risks Chinese economic retaliation, such as trade restrictions or tariffs, which hit hard in 2020–2021 (e.g., barley, wine).
• China Alignment: Prioritising China could secure trade stability and access to its massive market. However, over-reliance risks economic coercion, as China has used trade as leverage against Australia before.
3. Sovereignty and Values
• US Alignment: The US shares democratic values and legal frameworks, aligning with Australia’s political system. This choice supports autonomy but risks entanglement in US-led conflicts.
• China Alignment: Closer ties with China could pressure Australia to soften criticism of human rights issues or accept greater Chinese influence in domestic affairs, challenging sovereignty and public values.
4. Regional and Global Role
• US Alignment: Strengthens Australia’s role in Western alliances (e.g., Quad) but may strain relations with ASEAN nations wary of US-China rivalry.
• China Alignment: Could position Australia as a neutral broker in Asia but risks isolation from Western partners and skepticism from regional players such as Japan or India.
5. Long-Term Strategy
• Is the China-U.S. trade war likely to be a short-term escalation or a structural shift? With Trump as a major player we can never know. He could change his mind four times before breakfast.
• A binary choice may not be sustainable; hedging – balancing ties with both powers while diversifying trade and security partnerships (e.g., EU, India, Japan) – might preserve flexibility.
Potential Repercussions
In the Federal Public Service we refered to this as a “risk assessment” – a method for identifying potential hazards and evaluating their likelihood and impact. Simply put, it’s about asking, “What could go wrong?” Applying this framework to Australia’s decision on aligning with either the US or China, we might consider the following:
• Should the decision weigh immediate risks (economic impacts versus security concerns) against long-term resilience (diversification versus dependence)?
• Which stakeholders should be consulted – industry, defense, or the public – to understand their priorities?
• Would scenario planning be useful to simulate outcomes, such as US-led sanctions versus restricted access to Chinese markets?
Our ultimate choice will ripple across Australia’s economy, security, and global relationships. Let’s break it down:
1. Choosing the US
• Economic Fallout: China could impose tariffs, bans, or informal trade barriers, as seen in 2020. Industries such as mining, agriculture, and education (Chinese students) could suffer. Supply chain disruptions (e.g., rare earths) are possible.
• Security Gains: Stronger US backing could deter regional aggression, enhance AUKUS (e.g., nuclear submarines), and secure Indo-Pacific influence. However, Australia risks being drawn into US-China conflicts (e.g., Taiwan).
• Domestic Impact: Public support may split – businesses reliant on China could protest, while security-focused groups back the move. Political opposition might exploit economic pain.
• Global Relations: Ties with Japan, UK, and Canada strengthen, but ASEAN neighbors may distance themselves to avoid taking sides. China could court Pacific nations to isolate Australia regionally.
2. Choosing China
• Economic Gains: Stabilised trade could boost exports and investment. Industries such as resources and agriculture benefit, and Chinese infrastructure deals might increase.
• Security Risks: The US could scale back military cooperation, weaken AUKUS, or limit intelligence sharing, leaving Australia vulnerable. Regional powers – Japan or India in particular – may view Australia as less reliable.
• Domestic Impact: Public backlash is likely, given distrust of China (e.g., a 2024 poll showed 63% of Australians saw China as a threat). Political capital erodes if values like democracy are seen as compromised.
• Global Relations: Western allies may isolate Australia, reducing its role in global forums. China might demand concessions (e.g., less criticism of Hong Kong, Xinjiang), testing sovereignty. Regional neighbours could pivot to India or Japan for balance.
3. Hedging or Neutrality
• Economic Impact: Diversifying trade (e.g., India, EU) mitigates reliance on China but takes time. Both powers may pressure Australia for clarity, risking smaller-scale trade disruptions.
• Security Impact: Neutrality could weaken US trust, delaying AUKUS deliverables. China might exploit ambiguity to expand regional influence (e.g., Pacific Islands).
• Domestic Impact: Public and political support depends on clear communication – vague stances risk criticism as indecision.
• Global Relations: Australia could lead middle-power coalitions (e.g., with Canada, South Korea) but risks being sidelined by both superpowers if perceived as uncommitted.
Additional Notes
• Time Pressure: If we have only months, prioritise immediate economic buffers (e.g., trade deals with India, Japan) and security assurances (e.g., US, UK). Delay a definitive choice to buy time for diversification.
• Data Point: In 2023, China accounted for 32.5% of Australia’s exports, while the US was 11%. AUKUS commitments (e.g., $368 billion submarine deal) tie Australia to the US long-term.
• Public Sentiment: Polls (e.g., Lowy Institute) show Australians value the US alliance but fear economic dependence on China. We must address both.
Recommendation
Avoid a binary choice if possible. Publicly emphasise sovereignty and national interest while quietly diversifying trade (e.g., ASEAN, India) and reinforcing security ties (e.g., Quad). If forced to lean, the US offers stronger long-term security, but brace for economic pain from China – mitigate with domestic support (e.g., industry subsidies). Communicate transparently to maintain public trust.
I hope I’ve offered something in the way of processes, without which we can’t make an informed decision. But let’s not wait until we are forced to decide. We need to get the ball rolling now.
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Trump says that several other nations are queuing up to ‘kiss his ass’ over tariff issues.
We need to make it abundantly clear that Australians don’t kiss ass!
Michael, I wonder if we are seeing the end of the American Empire?
It was 84 years ago that the British let us down when Singapore was over run and since the war the British Empire imploded.
The autocratic way Trump is running America, the isolationist approach he has, along with sabre-rattling threats to Greenland, Canada, Panama, and the irrationality of his tariff war may mean that soon the American Empire will no longer exist, at least not in any meaningful way in the ability to uphold treaties such as ANZAC and AUKUS.
As I have expounded on in a missive I have just sent off, America spends a lot on its defence, and has been an aggressor for a bloody long time, about 250 odd years, only 16 without being actively engaged in some sort of conflict or other, where as China’s military build up is essentially defensive. Apart from Taiwan it has no expansionist intentions.
Hang on Terry, Albanese as PM does not kiss arse. Dutton may well be a different proposition.
His very good friend and Trump arse kisser Morrison was smoothing up at their campaign launch yesterday.
How many countries has China gone to war with or added their troops to?
How many times has Trump changed his mind since you started reading this article?
I agree with maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” on this question.
We must have the freedom to pursue that which serves us best whenever situations change.
We must have the kahonas to reinforce our sovereignty when needed and to stand up to whichever of these powers sees fit to abuse our loyalty. At this point in history l can see one power willing to respect our sovereignty if the explanation is diplomatically polite and respectful of that country. I can also see one power who, as @ Terry Mills has said, only respects our ass kissing capabilities.
As we watch the chaos which passes as government in US, we chuckle because we would never be that daft.
Best not think back to the birth of AUKUS which very suddenly emerged after a night of serious drinking with Biden, and Boris, and Scotty. Pissed off the French who thought they had a contract with adults.
With our 2 party government it follows that Albo gives the automatic tick to AUKUS after 24 hours of serious thought.
Observers from distant parts will notice the shoot from the hip reactions to defence of our great nation, and probably conclude that a short note faxed from Washington is all the guidance that we need.
The latest “gut reaction” came from Marles, who like his companions on the front bench are currently asking the people for another term in office.
While Trump was providing even more justification for our not asking anything from USA because they told us we are friends no longer, the Chinese ambassador was making overtures to us.
He had the temerity to suggest that since USA is stepping down, then this could be a good time to sit down with China to look at closer ties.
Within a couple of hours Marles gave it an emphatic negative.
Talk about shooting ourselves in the foot-do we live in a democracy?
My observation is that China has been very kind and tolerant towards our fence sitting posture.
Their patience should not be abused, and I hope in the wash up from our elections, we start doing something in our interests towards our powerful local partner.
It’s not a binary and one would avoid views we hear of ageing ‘Anglosphere’ ultraconservatives who without supporting Trump personally or publicly, warning against Australia and UK allying with China (guess EU too).
Not only will it be possible to move closer to the EU and our region matching more Eurasian demographics emerging in Oz, we can cut finally the umbilical cord with the ultraconservatives’ risible ‘Anglosphere’ led by the US.
Not only was it used to try box in Australians culturally, but the players in politics and media reeked of white Christian nationalism and Anglo exceptionalism, not in the interests of younger generations or the future?
One is still waiting for all those local supporters or enablers who led Australians and others down a cul de sac, to come out explain their support for Trump eg. Murdoch, John ‘Brexit & Trump tremendous news’ Howard, Abbott, Downer, Sheridan, Assange et al.?
Surely it’s not about disappearing all things Trump in the media for Dutton & the LNP to have a chance, with an election approaching?
It is a positive symptom of Trump that voters elsewhere are punishing parties and MPs of the hard right, white Christian nationalism and ultraconservatives; ‘the great replacement’ in action?
Australia needs to tell the pompous, power-obsessed, “orange man”: Donald Trump, to go to hell! Australia does very little trade with America; America doesn’t buy much from Australia (except our meat) and our FIRST loyalty should be to China and Japan, nations that are, by far, our BIGGEST, most loyal trading partners and with whom we have an excellent, long-standing bilateral relationship!
There’s no doubt about it, Trump is proving himself to be megalomaniacal, nauseating bully who has ZERO loyalty to anyone – even to allies who have supported America in every self-serving war and ILLEGAL invasion that country has instigated! Trump is a narcissistic psychopath who is now on a path of isolation and destruction. Trump’s appalling arrogance knows no bounds: intimidating America’s (once) close allies (like Australia, Canada and a rising number of nations in Europe), making ridiculous threats to ILLEGALLY invade and take over independent nations like Greenland and attempting to harass nations who don’t “toe the line” to his escalating threats and offensive intimidation! Not only is Trump a notorious and recidivist misogynistic predator, he is a CONVICTED CRIMINAL, without one iota of remorse nor moral compass!
Australia does not need Trump and we can live without Trump’s version of America which is now being misled and mismanaged by an incompetent, narcissistic psychopath who believes (falsely) that he can rule the world by threatening ex-allies through intimidation! Australia and Canada both had very good workable relationships with Joe Biden but, alas, Trump is turning into a born-to-rule fascist whose megalomania and narcissism is causing a serious rift with America’s long-held allies who refuse to kowtow to Trump’s offensive threats and harassment. Australia MUST stand up to (and against) Trump and not be seen to kowtow to his cowardly bullying and divisive intimidation! The reality is that Trump is a dangerous bully who is proving to be the worst, most divisive and undemocratic president in America’s history.
The fact is that OUR nation is located within the Asian region of the world and, as such, Australia MUST maintain our strong, existing bilateral relationship with China, Japan and other nations throughout this region. China and Japan are, by far, our biggest long-term trading partners and, as such, our FIRST loyalty should be to China and Japan! If Trump has the gall and temerity to try and force our nation to make a choice between our trusted, long-term trading partners and a nation (America) being torn apart by an internationally-condemned, dangerous overbearing tyrant, Trump, we MUST pick China EVERY time! Trump lacks even the most rudimentary levels of intelligence, foresight, morality and loyalty – he has become a dangerous, overbearing narcissis with delusions of grandeur which will only succeed in isolating America from the world! Instead of his shallow promise to “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”, the ONLY thing Trump will achieve by alienating America from its (once) close allies, is to MAKE AMERICA HATE AGAIN!
TIME TO BE PART OF FORGING A NEW WORLD AND LET GO THE OLD ONE
I don’t think it is a binary choice at all – that is what the USA, CIA and their minion corporate billionaires and News Corp would have us think. We can tread an independent path but that doesn’t mean we are alone. Time to think wisely and with courage. But I do believe the time is coming to strike a new path and place in the world, a more neutral, collaborative, peaceful and mutual, consistent, dependable and defendable one.
Reality is the USA and our government have been hiding the truth from the Australian public and manipulating public opinion. The LNP, Dutton and his mob, the far right particularly are all blindly pro-USA, and Labor lacks conviction and courage. The USA’s interest in Australia is entirely to maintain strategic dominance in the world and over us. Nothing they do is in our best interests, that is up to us decide. Right now, we do not have sovereignty, the USA has sway over us militarily, politically and economically, despite our largest export trade relationship being with China, and China is in our region. The USA will never deliver on AUKUS, they will take billions off us, strip us economically and should conflict happen, the USA will not defend us here, just like they refused to support UK and Europe at the beginning of WW2. Just as they are doing now both in Ukraine and Europe, and their long term ‘so called’ alliances. Trade and economically, we are simply a pawn in their bid for empire and look now how the USA behave – Utterly unreliable, detestable, unfriendly, humiliating, disloyal, untrustworthy, backstabbing, exploitative, disrespectful, ignorant, arrogant, hostile, warmongering, threatening, intimidating, chaotic, anarchic, a reckless juggernaut, pseudo democracy at best but fundamentally an unstable corporate oligarchy. A military and strategic alliance with USA makes us a military and strategic target. USA are a serious threat to our security militarily, economically and in terms of our sovereignty which we simply do not have, it is a cover only, a false and wishful narrative. The USA under Trump are an existential threat to us and to peace in our region. We are the pawns, the front line on the board in our region for their strategic and military posturing and would be more so under AUKUS, and until now Australia has been dragged into every war and conflict the USA have engaged in during the last 80 years. USA warmongering has been prolific, its true colours currently exposed and blazing in its alliance with Israel and the genocide and destruction of Palestine, and of course Syria, and Iran is next. If we remain aligned with the USA, we will be cannon fodder and they will use us as they always have, as they manipulate, blackmail and coerce Ukraine, as they seek to lecture Germany, France and Europe.
We do not have to walk alone, far from it. There are dozens of nations in our region (Southeast Asia and Pacific) with whom we already have productive and friendly relations, and they could very readily be strengthened in resolve and number, and indeed China need not be seen as a foe at all. We should remember China has suffered invasion of its borders throughout ancient and modern history, but has never yet waged war on another country, with the exception, granted of countries immediately on its border, namely Tibet and current posture over Taiwan. But simply not comparable to the complusive chain of invasions and foreign wars conducted by the USA. China, like the Ukraine has a right to defend itself if threatened as do we. We are not a threat to China if we are sovereign, and China need not be a threat to us. It’s a new world emerging and we should embrace it, not blindly defend the old order forged by US ambition, runaway capitalism, greed and empire. But, we should be wary of China for the moment, until we have built longer term trust, partnership and stability. Neither are we alone in our world beyond our region, we are part of a global constitutional trading group, the Commonwealth – our sister countries, our cousins are many, 56 sovereign nations including the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, India, South Africa, Malaysia, Pakistan, PNG, numerous Pacific and African nations. This is a longstanding league of nations we can forge closer trading and strategic ties. And it doesn’t end there – We have well trodden relations with the whole of Europe and a deeply mirrored diaspora in our own country. We have trade agreements and growing alliances over many years with South Korea, Japan and Indonesia on our very doorstep. Quite frankly we are not nearly as isolated as we are sometimes made to feel or presume. Geographically we may be vulnerable, but when you consider this more carefully in the light, we are already aligned with a vast majority of nations globally, notwithstanding our membership of the UN, which we should cherish, honour and strengthen more, and China clearly is willing. It is the USA and Russia that constantly block progress, and all too often we follow the former.
That said, it is time for us to recognise our strength and stability is not in America, but the rest of the world they have just rejected and played. We need to liberate ourselves from the allure and coercion of the USA, prepare for own exit from the US sphere and enter more fully into the world of friendly nations, who have strength in being closely aligned together. This talk of superpowers needs to stop, we need to face up to the bullies together, and send a clear message to the USA and Russia – No more. I believe we will be stronger for it and China will respect us for standing up on our own two feet, but we are not alone. China I believe already sees new possibilities, their choices are not binary either, but we need to put them into play. We still need to build, strengthen, modernise and extend our defensive capability, but on our own terms not America’s. We decide not Trump nor any other president of the USA, and we should not target China as the USA do, our capabilities should be uniquely defensive, neutral and strategic, uncoupled from USA.
As Penny Wong and Albanese have said, without being partisan on this, as there is much Labor do not say or do, and should, we will disagree with China where we must, but we do so from a position of friendship, neutrality and strength, not coercion, threat, knee jerk or opposition. We are by no means in a position to be righteous on human rights, but we should not abandon them, for that is exactly what Trump, Putin and Netanyahu doing, and clearly it is not one of China’s greatest strengths, nor we. We should put our own house in order first, for that then truly declares who we are and how we wish to play, which after all would be clearly no threat to one such as China. As small as we are how could we be, why would we even want to?
We all know who Petedonald Trumpdut would choose without a seconds hesitation don’t we.
I heard a report last night that pointed to Australia being in a very good position to benefit during the Trump silliness provided we play our cards carefully.
Firstly, we have a golden opportunity to export agricultural produce to China as relationships between US and China deteriorate. Particularly cereal crops, soybeans and the like – they will take as much as we can supply.
Secondly we are in for a bonanza of imported finished goods including clothing and apparel and other consumer goods including electronics etc as the US diminishes as an export market for China and Asia and we take up some of the surplus at discount prices BUT we must guard against dumping.
We don’t need to take sides in this Trump inspired stupidity but we can benefit on the fringe.
Kathryn, our first loyalty should be to ourselves. We should not be puppets to any other nation, neither America nor China, not even to Britain who deserted us during WWII.
Yes, we need alliances, but they must be to our interests, both the defensive ones and the trade ones.
I stand with Bert Hetebry; Australia should stand on its own two political feet, cut the apron strings to England which has a long history of abusing Australian interests while promoting their own (now what nationality was the Commanding Officer at Singapore in 1942?).
Australia has a fledgling armaments industry but seems to have lost their ability to produce ammunition. The new world of warfare exposed in Ukraine sees radio controlled drones as the new impact weapons ….. just like the Australian innovation of the tank in WWI.
Given our coastline and shortage of vessels capable of protecting the land mass, perhaps it is time to provide jobs to the ship building industry providing sufficient high speed patrol boats, properly equipped to handle political and weather conditions in the Timor Sea.
Anybody for a career in rocket technology??
Stand alone and stand proud …. our experience is that world ”leaders” make unreliable allies.
Alliances only work with good will and stability from all participants. That rules out USAnia.
Good article and discussion Michael
I’ve been a longstanding supporter of our US alliance, but Trump has demonstrated that the US is unreliable and under his administration it is totally erratic. It no longer shares Australia’s values.
Any choice we make can’t be based on accommodation of the narcissist.
Trump has chosen isolation, and the US is entitled to experience the reality of this.
It can begin to understand that alliances aren’t one way. The US gains from access to Pine Gap (the most important military and intelligence facility outside the US). It can consider a world where its access to the Indian Ocean via ports in WA are limited, ditto it’s access to South East Asia via Darwin and the western rim of the Pacific Ocean via Sydney and Brisbane.
Australia is now faced with developing and enhancing new alliances.
The EU, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, the Pacific islands and even Indonesia appear to be more stable and reliable. This should be our focus.
Thank you, AC.
I actually enjoyed putting it together, using my experience as a policy officer in the public service as a template. The same processes apply if you’re working on pandemic preparedness, drafting social security legislation, or planning WW3.
Michael I have only just come upon your article and wish to thank you for your considered analysis – interesting, thought-provoking & challenging.
While I’m at it, I thank also those who have commented: there is likewise much to consider in the comments. As a dear mate of mine would say: “This is a big deal, it’s serious stuff”.
However, and as others have suggested, both here and on other threads, our Military/Security/Intelligence “industry” can be guaranteed to go in one direction only, and likely at the expense of existing trade and other relations with China. But again, this does not have to be exclusively so – strategic ambiguity when done well, might just be our way out of any potential dilemma when, and if, we face being told what to do by the US – as we most certainly have in the past.
In the present circumstances, I would argue that no one, but no one has the right to do that – however it might be dressed-up.
BUT if in the end we decide to cleave to the US, (to the exclusion of all others perhaps), then we are “kissing ass”, and it does not matter how you seek to disguise that unpleasant fact.
Thank you, Julian. Much appreciated.
A WORD ON ARSE KISSING… YES STOP THE ARSE KISSING!
Will Albanese and Dutton kiss Trump’s arse? Why would anyone kiss an ugly arse as his or anyone else’s for that matter!
I bloody hope not, but I’m certain Dutton will if he were elected, while pretending he is a tough nut! He does nothing but kiss arse including Gina and look at his predecessor, Morrison, he has done nothing but kiss Donald’s arse from when he was PM to right now when he has had no right to do so or speak on our behalf.
As for Albanese, he needs to get this election in the bag, with a majority or not, he must align and start respecting the Greens and moderate Independents. He must start embracing many of Green’s policies, form a Labor Coalition with them if he wants to set Australia’s sights on the long term. No more slagging the Greens, it diminishes Labor, not just the Greens and it diminishes us.
From this electoral strong point we can then confidently pivot away from the US, ditch AUKUS, and re-purpose our place in the world with all countries in our region including China, and start showing more friendly relations, mutual respect, stable trading relations and strategic partnerships; not this constant trade bickering used commonly as a big stick or weapon.
So the last thing I wish to see is Albanese kissing Trump’s arse or indeed any other future US president. If he does, he will lose many of us and fall in shame at the following election. And he needs to stop kissing the arse of the mining sector, big arse corporates, gambling and pharmaceutical industries, fossil fuels including gas, stop kissing the arse of the banking, insurance and finance sector, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, who serve themselves and their master – money. He needs to remember he serves us, and so too should the money, we do not live for the economy, we build the economy to serve us. Albanese needs to stop kissing arse on Real Estate, property and building sector, modernise and make our Unions accountable to the people, not just their workers, so they can do their job creating better working environments and conditions, limiting the reckless bosses, employer and their exploitative profiteering, no more arse kissing there either. And finally, stop arse kissing the populist mantra floated like shit by corporate Australia. If you do what is right for the people and your country and want to engage in long term peace and prosperity, then you need to stop this electoral arse kissing and kicking every 3 years… it’s a load of trucking shite.
This is supposed to be a democracy, an informed one it needs to be, not a gambling lounge, a casino of winners and losers, where the biggest, ugliest and nastiest arse wins. MSM be warned too, how many bloody warnings do you need – make up your mind money or people, freedom or repression, progress or regression, war or peace and prosperity? Stop your arse kissing too and your pathetic silly games and upmanship at press conferences, as if you think we the people as simple and stupid as you. You won’t sell your news and gutless heart to me!
Correction: ANZUS doesn’t exist. NZ nixed it when the bully US (not a new phenomenon) refused to adhere to the nuclear free policy of NZ.
This is why NZ is different to AUS. Key moments like this in history.
It’s harder to grow a spine from scratch.
Hello Kylie.
My understanding is that the treaty has lapsed between the US ad NZ but remains in force between Australia-US and Australia-NZ.