By Lee Capocchi
When voters gave an expanded super-majority to Labor, based on preferences, they did not expect Labor to do un-democratic deals with the party that they, the voters, kicked into the dust and totally rejected.
Three times Labor has relied on dealing with the LNP as a hegemony to pass controversial legislation, bypassing the rest of parliament:
- The carve out of the salmon industry in Tasmania from the (then) future environmental laws to the anger of most Tasmanians and the progressives of Australia.
- The passing of new laws that effectively restrict election funding to independent candidates and minor parties, while allowing greater funding to incumbents.
- The hate speech laws, where Labor eschewed the reasonable and decent inclusive amendments from independents and the Greens (protecting everyone identifying with minority groups, not just the Jewish lobby), and gave immense power without due process to the Minister of the day (something that Labor railed against anytime the LNP proposed similar legislation).
Unsurprisingly, the LNP has split over the Hate laws, and the coalition is probably dead, with the cremation to be announced shortly.
The Nationals are against the laws, as is PHON and those far-right nut-jobs who, when they speak publicly, give no real policies, but rather they vomit hate. These laws can, and will, directly affect them.
We can see closer ties between the Nationals, PHON, Gina and Palmer who are determined to create a billionaire-controlled, far-right block.
The “moderate” Liberals will become a very small group, with few coherent policies, completely wedged because Labor has moved to the centre-right of the political spectrum, taking up the political space that the liberals once held, but lost to the Teals and Labor.
Meanwhile, disaffected Labor voters will shift to the more progressive minor parties (eg. The Greens) and independents. If this happens, the LNP and Labor will lose seats, particularly in the Senate, meaning their hegemony may no longer be in control. Who will regional Australia vote for when the traditional party that represented them has gone rogue? They may start voting Liberal or Labor. Hanson’s One Nation may get a few extra seats, but where?
If Pauline Hanson wants to be “Australia’s next leader” she will have to resign from the Senate and stand for the Lower House and field enough candidates to hopefully get more seats than Labor, which is a stretch too far.
The election funding deal that the LNP stitched up with Labor is going to come back to bite them. They will become the new minor parties and they, and the non-incumbent independents, such as new PHON candidates, will suffer the reduced funding that they voted so eagerly to achieve. This will impact them at the 2028 election. By which time, the increased level of renewables investment will make their negativity a moot point.
So after the next election, we predict the cross-bench will be expanded, mainly at Labor’s expense. A few Nationals may lose their seats, probably those that supported PHON racist and anti-immigration tropes, as so many farmers rely on immigrant workers to pick their food crops. Greens will be a wild card, unless they can negotiate preferences with other independents. This is because Labor recognised the shift of voter patterns several elections back, and now refuse to deal with them and refuse to preference them. Many voters are angry with Labor’s shift to the right and cutting out their previous progressive alignment. Hence the laws they created to nobble the growth of the cross-bench.
Teals may get a couple of more seats, most likely from the Liberals, but possibly from Labor. The Nationals might lose a couple of seats where they have gone over to the Dark Side of PHON, who in turn may pick up one or two more seats, effectively fragmenting the Liberals and Nationals further. Labor will lose their super-majority and return to a more normal small majority, while more independents will join parliament, with possibly a couple extra seats to the Greens, particularly in the Senate.
It all depends on Labor’s performance in the next couple of years. They have all of 2026 and 2027 to reign in their shift to the right and to cast laws that the people want. Real progressive work that can be achieved with their super-majority, that they seem to be abandoning in pursuit of their old-school hegemony that the new cohort of younger voters do not want.
Lee, now retired, spent 25 years in the health industry, including 10 years as a St John ambulance volunteer and CFA volunteer. In retirement Lee does volunteer work with returned veterans. Lee holds graduate qualifications in OHS&E management and is a qualified AV engineer. A keen motorcyclist, he has ventured to every state and territory, except WA.
Also by Lee:
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The ALP proves, once again, it is closer to the LNP than to more progressive parties. The duopoly must go!
The “progress” of LABOR policy reform has been glacial; no accountability for the illegal Robodebt scam that cost 2,200+ lives of voters improperly accused of defrauding Centrelink, while the perpetrators remain unaccountable for their actions. Scummo was Treasurer during this disgraceful episode.
No effort to extract Australia from Scummo”s USUKA sub debacle to provide his own post-politics career as a foreign owned corporate director.
Too much clinging to old political structures without seeing that Australian voters want better beneficial government decisions than are provided by clinging to the past, rather than planning into the future.
A better feral Parliament would be found in seeking TEAL support to build a future for Australian voters rather than foreign owned multinational corporations, especially foreign bankers inhibiting reforms in residential housing policy like restricting Negative Gearing.
I tend to agree with this assessment though you left out the weak NACC and the weak (but much touted) environmental laws as examples of collusion. I think the growing number of disaffected Labor voters would choose a progressive independent if offered the choice of someone credible. If enough of those stood, Labor could be forced into minority government next time round, or perhaps in ‘32.
@RomeoCharlie.
Agreed, although the weak environmental laws were Labor’s own creation, just like the now discredited Anti Corruption commission.
Once again Amy Remeikis gets to the bottom of the issues
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2026/01/24/coalition-split-queensland-lnp?