Editorial: The future of the Liberal Party – can they recover?
Many might shrug and ask, “Why should we care?” But we should – because a strong opposition is vital. As political wisdom holds, a government’s quality hinges on the opposition it faces. A robust opposition ensures accountability, forging better governance. Without it, power grows unchecked.
Yet the Liberal Party is fading – not with a dramatic fall, but a quiet, self-imposed unraveling. It’s tethered to the fading legacy of Menzies and the outdated ideals of John Howard, while Australia races ahead. The 2025 election wasn’t merely a loss; it marked the end of the party’s claim to represent middle Australia. Unless it acts fast, the next election could be its final chapter.
The party faces a defining moment, grappling not just with political strategy but with its very identity. Peter Dutton’s stunning defeat in his own seat wasn’t just a personal blow – it was a damning judgment on a decade of aimless drift and ideological fog. As the Liberals hunt for a new leader and a renewed purpose, the real question looms: not just whether they can win again, but what they’d even stand for if they did.
What went wrong?
For generations, the Liberals were Australia’s natural party of government – the steady hand of Menzies, the reform zeal of Howard. But somewhere between the Abbott era’s wrecking ball and Morrison’s empty sloganeering, the party lost its way. The subsequent 2022 election loss wasn’t an aberration; it was the inevitable result of a party that had stopped speaking to the Australia that actually exists.
The new leadership contenders face an unenviable task. The moderates argue for a return to the “broad church” – a party that can appeal to both small business owners and young professionals. The conservatives demand doubling down on “traditional values” – as if repeating the same culture war battles will somehow produce different results. Both factions miss the fundamental truth: the Liberals don’t need to move left or right so much as they need to move forward into the 21st century.
Consider climate change – the issue that has become the Liberals’ political kryptonite. While the rest of the developed world embraces the clean energy transition, the party remains trapped between climate skeptics and nuclear fantasists. The result? A generation of voters now sees the Liberals as the anti-future party. Who wants to wait 20 years for nuclear plants when they can have solar panels today?
Then there’s the women problem – not just a perception issue, but a fundamental failure of representation. The Teals – a 2022 phenomenon – didn’t just take Liberal seats; they exposed how completely the party had lost touch with professional women. When voters describe the party as “stuck in the 1950s,” they’re not just criticising policies – they’re rejecting an entire worldview.
The Teal uprising wasn’t an accident – it was a betrayal. For years, the Liberals took their heartland seats for granted, assuming doctors, lawyers, and small business owners would never desert them. Then came the climate denial, the knuckle-dragging on gender equality, and the tin-eared refusal to read the room on integrity. The result? Wealthy, educated voters – the Liberals’ own people handed their votes to independents who actually represented their values.
Then there’s the demographic shifts. Younger voters, women, and professionals are drifting away – how much is due to climate policy, gender issues, or perceptions of outdated values?
Where to now?
The path back to relevance isn’t complicated, but it will require painful choices. It means finally making peace with climate science and offering credible energy policies. It demands treating women not as a demographic to be managed, but as equals to be represented. Most of all, it requires understanding that the “quiet Australians” aren’t quiet about wanting action on housing affordability, mental health, and economic fairness.
History offers a glimmer of hope. The Liberals have been written off before – after Whitlam, after Rudd – only to reinvent themselves. But this time feels different. The challenges are deeper, the alternatives more compelling, and the trust more thoroughly eroded.
The party’s next leader will face a simple choice: preside over the final decline of a once-great institution, or begin the hard work of rebuilding it for a new Australia. One path leads to oblivion. The other to renewal. The Liberals still have the talent and resources to choose wisely – but do they have the will?
As the party room prepares to vote, they might recall Menzies’ famous words about the “forgotten people.” The cruel irony is that today, it’s the Liberal Party itself that risks being forgotten – not by the elites it rails against, but by the ordinary Australians it once represented so well.
But more than a new leader, it needs a time machine – one that could transport it back to when it actually stood for something. The Liberals’ greatest threat isn’t Labor or the Teals. It’s their own refusal to look in the mirror and see what Australia already has: a party that forgot why it existed in the first place. The time machine will come in handy there.
In a word…
The Liberals aren’t just losing voters – they’re losing the plot. And without a rewrite, their next chapter will be an obituary.
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Thankyou!
I’m a semi-retired man, and the young men and women I work with agree with your analysis.
One lady said “If I thought they were offering something good, I’d consider voting for them, but they don’t – not for me or my girls”.
A robust opposition is a necessary feature of a thriving democracy…..I agree !
But what we saw from Dutton was not a desire to engage in debate and make a contribution to parliamentary processes: his MO was to oppose everything and particularly when it came to housing initiatives, he saw political mileage not only in opposing legislation but actively seeking to bog it down.
Tone the Botty was a wrecking ball dinosaur misogynistic prick.
Nice analysis Michael. May they take a long rest.
We hear that Tim Wilson has come back. We had a blocked dunny once and a turd came back. Wilson is a “friend” of murderers, thieves, liars, essential in that electorate. He supports the futility, stupidity and financial enslaving of nuclear power generation one day, after we are all dead and all roofs have solar with battery storage. If Wilson is relevant, sensible, promising, then Trump is brilliant and all harlots are chaste. Vote one.., insanity. When Jack Howard, an old classmate, got to the top of their dungheap, oblivion shimmered…
It makes me want to choke on my toast (with irony and cynical laughter) when I read that the LNP are considered to have a “women problem”! The FACT is that the LNP have NEVER had a so-called “women problem”, what they have got – and have ALWAYS maintained – is an “alpha male problem” with their historical, malevolent level of rusted-on misogyny and condescending contempt for ANYONE born with a uterus! This antiquated level of undisguised misogyny, quite frankly, goes way back to that cigar-chomping, pompous, alpha-male Australian “Tory”, Robert Menzies!
This pathological mistrust and contempt for women by the right-wing misogynists in the ultra-conservative ranks of the male-dominated cabinets of the LNP was also rampant right throughout the Howard regime who only had TWO sycophantic women in his cabinet (Jocelyn Newman and Amanda Vanstone) and two women in his Outer Ministry to represent more than 51% of the female population of Australia! The appalling, open contempt for women only got worse – far worse – when the Mother and Father of ALL disreputable, alpha-male misogynists, Tony Abbott, rose to become one of the most internationally-condemned, thoroughly despised, combative, racist and misogynistic political sociopaths in our nation’s history! Who can EVER forget the cringe-worthy, unspeakably sexist statement made by Abbott that began with: “What the housewives of Australia need to understand as they do the ironing is ……” !!!!
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/article/misogynist-former-pm-tony-abbott-torn-apart-by-british-politician/j6lbvq4z6
After the first staggering, medieval 14 words uttered above, I seriously doubt that ANYONE around the world heard the remaining lies and putrid political messages in that appalling speech! The fact that the LNP never castigated nor openly condemned the disreputable misogynistic pathological liars and racist RWNJs, Abbott and Morrison, was a RED FLAG WARNING to the huge majority of well-informed, highly educated and intelligent women throughout Australia whom the Abbott/Morrison regimes would NEVER EVER truly and fairly represent throughout our nation. Only the most stupid, Murdoch-manipulated, rusted-on right-wing racist women in the country supported and foolishly voted for Abbott, Morrison and the LNP and, indeed, CONTINUE to support with Dutton at the helm! The fact that Dutton was an integral member of the callously inhumane, misogynistic, racist white supremacists in the Abbott and Morrison regimes was not lost on Australian voters, particularly women, who soundly REJECTED the LNP’s continual stance supporting alpha male domination and, as a result, female subjugation within – and outside – their appalling, medieval regime!
The alienation of women by the misogynistic LNP is one of the main reason(s) WHY they suffered such a catastrophic loss at the last election. The fact is that the HUGE majority of women (justifiably) just don’t trust the chest-beating male-dominated LNP and this suspicion and mistrust has only been compounded by Dutton’s REFUSAL to address issues that negatively impact women and families. Needless to say that that suspicion, mistrust, loathing and justifiable rage against the LNP’s antiquated, right-wing, ultra-conservative male domination of women has been understandably reflected at the ballot box at the last federal election ….
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-04/did-peter-dutton-nuke-himself-with-female-voters-/105249444
Yes, indeed, the LNP really DO have a major problem with the huge majority of intelligent women in this nation which is unlikely to be improved, repaired or fixed until the LNP wake up and address those issues! Clearly, Dutton hasn’t learnt a THING since Australians – particularly women – denounced Abbott and tossed him into permanent political isolation. Dutton’s (and the LNP’s) inability to face the realisation that MORE THAN 52% of the adult Australians eligible to vote are, in fact, WOMEN will ensure that the LNP’s continuing antiquated and highly unpopular (misogynistic) views against women will seriously impair the LNP’s chances of being re-elected, particularly by highly educated members of the female Gen Y, Gen Z and post-millennial generations!
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/article/misogynist-former-pm-tony-abbott-torn-apart-by-british-politician/j6lbvq4z6
Put Prince “Nuclear Power” Timmy in charge of the LNP? Gina finds a new corruptable puppet?
The previous “reinventions” were not improvements. There is no reason to assume the next one will be, particularly with so much of the conservative commentariat pushing for an even bigger shift to the right, and with the ongoing infiltration by the christofascists.
I would rather the teal independents come together and form a new party and in time morph into a gentler, competent and not corrupt fiscally conservative opposition. I wouldn’t vote for them but it would be better for the country.
leefe, show me where I “assumed” they will be.
I despise the bastards, but their reinventions worked because they got back into government in 2013 and stayed there for nine years. In those nine years they proved to be a heartless pack of racists, among other things, but half of the electorate liked them that way.
A lazy re-post of my comment on “As expected, Dutton was unelectable.”
In Victoria, the urban Liberals have been plagued by infighting and culture wars for some time. Since 1999 when the Nationals for a while tore up the state coalition agreement there have been significant ongoing tensions between the Liberals and Nationals.
In the federal division of Bendigo, rural capital Bendigo with a population of 105,000 was a major thriving gold town, and increasingly transformed to a tree-change tourist capital surrounded by agriculture. The city has suffered significantly from the straights of cost-of-living and downturn in tourism, and decline in viable housing as most turn-of-19C houses degrade.
Labor has held the federal seat since 1998, the incumbent since 2013. The Nationals (+29%) have come extremely close to unseating Labor (-8%) in Bendigo, significantly by failure of the Greens (-3%) and defections to the Nationals from the Liberals (-16%).
The western Vic federal division of Wannon, the traditional heartland of agriculture in Vic, has been held by the Liberals since 1955. 1955-1983 by wool baron and notorious Prime Minister, Malcolm Fraser. 1983-2010 by David Hawker (Howard era Speaker), and 2010-present by Dan Tehan all the while holding various junior ministries and shadow ministries, and now putative leader of the train-wreck Liberal Party.
Tehan’s tenure in Wannon has been seriously tested by the huge campaign of Independent Alex Dyson who had a first preference swing of +13%, but Tehan held on in 2pp by 8%. Ironically, the palpably worn out and uninspiring Tehan is the main contender against the dubious Angus Taylor for leadership of the Party.
The wreckage of the Liberals and significant cleave between the Liberals and Nationals is surely going to test both Parties and the coalition. Their collective olde worlde wit, infighting and culture wars is going to be severely tested as they squabble to form any representative opposition, let alone a viable one.
The new leader of the opposition in WA has admitted that something must be done to increase the number of women contesting seats the Liberal Party.
That is a man who as Lord Mayor of Perth refused funding for a women’s refuge centre, a man who as a radio shock jock was noted for his misogynistic and homophobic rants on radio, a man who is rumoured to enjoy the odd snort of illicit substances.
May I suggest that he represents the very problem he seeks to resolve.
As I intimated earlier, Goldstein has proven to be an enigma with Tim Wilson (Liberal) winning the seat over Zoe Daniel (Teal Independent) : it was the postal vote wot dunnit.
But this wasn’t a win for the Liberals : Goldstein has the second-largest Jewish population in Victoria and during the election an anonymous letter was circulating accusing teal independent Zoe Daniel and her campaign of being antisemitic – clearly this, whilst mischeivous and false, caused her some damage.
Tim Wilson has declared himself to be “proudly Zionist” and supports Israel’s right to ‘self defence’ and its actions in Gaza : https://x.com/rachelrwithers/status/1849960143339081826
This, it seems, was a win for the Zionists who Dutton had gone out of his way to foster, he had visited Israel and said he would welcome Netanyahu to Australia, ignoring the ICC warrant for his arrest for crimes against humanity.
I’m not in the Goldstein electorate so I just go on what I read ; does anybody closer to the action have an ear to the ground and know what exactly happened to lose an effective independent to a ho-hum IPA spruiker ?
To me, the posts from Kathryn, Leefe and Michael Taylor go to the core of this question…the hard right is by nature defensive and resctive, not able to adapt in a “post Fraser”, if you like, world. The other commentors picked up on it and fleshed it out.
I can’t see how they can re-adapt with their attitudes and refusals of self reflexivity, when all that is left is a hard conservative “rump.
I wonder if the eviction of Daniel could in a way be a continuation of the “Dry”/Howardist purge against moderates from the ‘eighties of last century until now,-they can’t take criticism and self examination seems beyond them in a vaccuum
What ever flexibility remains, remains in the brains of the Independents, who once could have given life to the coalition. They are to the coalition what the Greens have become to labor on a similar theme of industry interference (eg, forestry). Both majr parties and the wider public do not seem to understand the real issues environmentalism raises, including economy.
The electorate has given its reply to “my way or the highway” with the equivalent to a digit-finger response during this election; as a journalist said in the Grauniad today,the election could mark the eclipse of Murdochism.
It ia shame some of the Greens and Teals have become road kill in the haste to escape Dutton.
Yes, the parliamentary system requires major parties that have considered policies, relevant to the electorate.
Written polices on major issues ensure a level of accountability
The Liberal Party has been shunned because their policies and leadershp were chaotic and lacking relevance.
Their party now appears to lack the substance and leadership horsepower to return to credibility and effective opposition.
The wound is self inflicted.
Any return to credibility would require the removal of many of their current MPs and replacement with those willing to engage with the wider community
Thank you Michael for your adroit summary – much appreciated.
I fully endorse your primary point that a strong opposition is vital. – an operating principle that ought not require further explanation, but as you note, does need reinforcing.
In your consideration of the Libs’ path back to relevance, I was struck by your comment:
Most of all, it requires understanding that the “quiet Australians” aren’t quiet about wanting action on housing affordability, mental health, and economic fairness.
In saying that, I think that you have effectively exploded the myth (started by Morrison) and energised by Dutton that the outer suburbs were somehow the sole repository of such persons. Bulldust of course, but when you’re desperate, anything’s fair game.
Those with a half-decent memory of previous elections knew it wouldn’t be long before the quiet Australians’ older relative, the “silent majority” got a mention. This time it was ‘woke’ culture in schools. According to a SBS report: the election result…..appears to show the silent majority rejecting Dutton’s culture war focus.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/peter-dutton-woke-culture-war-federal-election-2025/olsacebwl
If so, that’s a nice example of blowback, but it didn’t stop some insisting that more ‘culture war’ was required – and may have been decisive.
On that point Michael, you may have read Bernard Keane’s article in Crikey about the malign influence of News Corp and the hold it has over the Libs:
What the Liberal Party itself needs to understand is that News Corp is a foreign-owned communications business, with its own agenda of fostering hatred, resentment and division in order to sell advertising and subscriptions. Its alliance with the Liberals is in pursuit of those goals — not in pursuit of good policy. Its best interests are those of the Murdochs and other shareholders that are paramount to News Corp’s business model (which, let us remember, pays not a single cent of tax in Australia), not those of Australians.
That’s why News Corp will always encourage the Liberals to pursue policies that punch downward, that divide and alienate, that are about culture wars targeting minorities.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/05/news-corp-liberal-party-defeat-sky-news-coalition/
More generally, as you correctly note Michael, repeated references to a “broad church” and “traditional values” is now seen as tiresome nonsense, when there’s nothing else on offer.
One matter however that I think needs more investigation is the long-standing and well disguised Tory contempt for the voters, the most recent example being Sky News’ commentator Andrew Bolt’s opinion that “the voters were wrong”.
You will notice Michael that I don’t refer to such persons and others as conservatives, as that would be a gross insult to a true Conservative (in the Burkean mold). This modern lot are (with notable exceptions) nothing more than a bunch of chancers and opportunists, unconnected with any notion of the common good and/or the wellbeing of the Australian people.
But having regard to Bolt’s comment, there exists (in my view) a continuous link with an earlier manifestation of this contempt for the ordinary voter. Consider this quote from an article written by John Menadue, the editor of P&I on 21 Oct, 2014:
“…The dismissal of the Whitlam Government had little to do with its performance.
Three months after Whitlam’s election victory in December 1972, Senator Withers, the leader of the Liberals in the Senate denied the legitimacy of the Whitlam Government. Withers warned: “the Senate may well be called upon to protect the national interest by exercising its undoubted constitutional power”. He said that the election mandate was ‘dishonest”, that Whitlam’s election was a “temporary electoral insanity” and that to claim that the Government was following the will of the people “would be a dangerous precedent for a democratic country”.
This attitude to the voters is an integral part of the mindset that sees its adherents firmly believing they are the only ones qualified to govern – this being for the unquestionable benefit of the Australian people. Readers familiar with the history of the Bunyip Aristocracy will know how longstanding this ‘born-to-rule’ impulse is within our society.
This mindset appears to be gaining adherents within and without the Coalition, (helped along by Mr. Trump), and as trite as many may view this phenomenon, it is (in my view) critically important to deal with it – at least by attempting to deflate it at every opportunity.
Thank you, Julian. You’re too kind.
The legacy of the queen’s man and the lying rodent is fantasy. The former was a racist, sexist, queen and cricket man, easily see marching on the spot with america. His only accomplishments were the continuation of the snowy and doubling the size of csiro. The latter sold every not nailed down to obfusticate any chance of looking into his inept economic exploits and lied to win elections. Albo should quietly stir the media to dump on howard.
It is sad for Australia but great for albo, when melb voters rejected a good woman and elected the man closest to drumpton’s view of the party.
Saturday was great was a great night, but, for 15 years I have been encouraging Labor to work on the bandita image as a green. He is an opportunistic blackmailing mongrel. The voters of brisbane realised the greens are not the party of senile bob and have no connection to ‘green’ and dumped them beginning with max, the archetypical loonie ‘Albo, we want more housing so you can have none.
But the piece de resistance was in ‘melb where enough simpleton laborites realised how awful the bandit is and dumped him.
Now Shy et al may return to the positive party for flora, fauna and Australia.